Champions League: Matchday 3

The story so far – 8 bets, 4 wins, 8pts staked, +2.00pts

Bayern Munich have to be opposed based on historical results but this is tricky as they are much stronger now than they were previously. There have not been many meetings between Italian and German teams in the last few years but this could be the season that the Italian league starts to improve again in Europe. Athletic Bilbao are not performing too well at home but maybe they have a decent chance at Porto. Not too far to travel for them either.

On Wednesday Juventus look good value and have to take Liverpool against Madrid as Spanish teams have done very poorly in the group stages in England. Finally going with Monaco again at home against Benfica this time.

 

Roma v Bayern Munich – Roma +0.5 @ 2.00 with Bet365

Porto v Athletic Bilbao – Athletic Bilbao @ 5.75 with Bet Victor (6.0 is around with some bookmakers)

Olympiakos v Juventus – Juventus @ 2.05 with Bet365

Liverpool v Real Madrid – Liverpool +0.75 @ 1.82 with Bet365

Monaco v Benfica – Monaco @ 2.45 with Bet365

 

WC2014 day 22 – The morning after

It’s back and about time. Not sure how next week will be with 3 whole days off! Excellent matchups in this round and Brazil v Colombia the pick for me. Loved this tweet from @benjaminpugsley showing how much time Colombia have been ahead in the tournament and that is the key here as they have not been stuck in draws when they need to break the deadlock or been behind. If Colombia do go ahead and we get into the second half I expect Brazil to score as Colombia defend very deep and as Brazil’s team is so lopsided with attackers it will suit them perfectly.

Lots of extra time in the first round and I saw the following tweet from @SportingbetMark.

 

Sporting Bet Mark

 

I had a dig around the results and went back to 1986 as in 1982 they had some silly double group system. I excluded finals and 3rd place playoffs as there is no game after and that leaves 32 matches with 32 teams progressing. The topline stat from this is that just 11 of the teams who played extra time (not just penalties) progressed and as 4 of the matches featured teams that had both come through extra time removing those we have just 7 of 24 teams that played extra time won their next match. It is true that the weaker teams are more likely to feature in extra time but that is still a strong stat.

The record is poor mainly due to teams going to penalty shootouts with just 5/19 progressing and again 2 of those matches featured teams that both came through via penalties so just 3/15 countries who progressed via a penalty shootout won their next match. Doesn’t look good for Brazil or Costa Rica.

Interestingly teams that won through via a penalty shootout have not gone into extra time the following game as 16/19 were decided within 90 mins and  just 3 went to extra time. Contrast that with teams that won through in extra time and in 11 of those 13 matches went to extra time again and 8 of them went on to penalties.

Is there something physically draining about the penalty shootout? Mentally does it weigh on your mind in the next match? The 19 teams who went through via a penalty shootout scored just 11 goals in their next match, whereas the extra time winners scored 12 goals in 13 games.

 All the matches in full are shown below

 

Yesterdays results

None

4/22 :: -8.4

Todays bets
01.07.2014 – France v Germany – DRAW @ 3.23 with Pinnacle

 

YearMatchWinnerNextETPen
2010R16: USA 1-2 GhanaGhanaL Ghana 1-1 UruguayYesYes
2006R16: Argentina 2-1 MexicoArgentinaL Argentina 1-1 GermanyYesYes
2006SF: Germany 0-2 ItalyItalyW Italy 1-1 FranceYesYes
2002R16: Sweden 1-2 SenegalSenegalL Senegal 0-1 TurkeyYes
2002R16: Korea Republic 2-1 ItalyKorea RepublicW Korea Republic 0-0 SpainYesYes
2002QF: Senegal 0-1 TurkeyTurkeyL Turkey 0-1 Brazil
1998R16: France 1-0 ParaguayFranceW France 0-0 ItalyYesYes
1994R16: Nigeria 1-2 ItalyItalyW Italy 2-1 Spain
1990R16: Cameroon 2-1 ColombiaCameroonL Cameroon 2-3 EnglandYes
1990R16: Spain 1-2 YugoslaviaYugoslaviaL Yugoslavia 0-0 ArgentinaYesYes
1990R16: England 1-0 BelgiumEnglandW England 3-2 CameroonYes
1990QF: England 3-2 CameroonEnglandL England 1-1 GermanyYesYes
1986R16: Soviet Union 3-4 BelgiumBelgiumW Belgium 1-1 SpainYesYes
2010R16: Paraguay 0-0 JapanParaguayL Paraguay 0-1 Spain
2010QF: Uruguay 1-1 GhanaUruguayL Uruguay 2-3 Netherlands
2006R16: Switzerland 0-0 UkraineUkraineL Ukraine 0-3 Italy
2006QF: Germany 1-1 ArgentinaGermanyL Germany 0-2 ItalyYes
2006QF: England 0-0 PortugalPortugalL Portugal 0-1 France
2002R16: Spain 1-1 Republic of IrelandSpainL Spain 0-0 Republic of IrelandYesYes
2002QF: Spain 0-0 Korea RepublicKorea RepublicL Korea Republic 0-1 Germany
1998R16: Argentina 2-2 EnglandArgentinaL Argentina 1-2 Netherlands
1998QF: Italy 0-0 FranceFranceW France 2-1 Croatia
1998SF: Brazil 1-1 NetherlandsBrazilL Brazil 0-3 France
1994R16: Mexico 1-1 BulgariaBulgariaW Bulgaria 2-1 Germany
1994QF: Romania 2-2 SwedenSwedenL Sweden 0-1 Brazil
1990R16: Republic of Ireland 0-0 RomaniaRepublic of IrelandL Republic of Ireland 0-1 Italy
1990QF: Yugoslavia 0-0 ArgentinaArgentinaW Argentina 1-1 ItalyYesYes
1990SF: Italy 1-1 ArgentinaArgentinaL Argentina 0-1 Germany
1990SF: Germany 1-1 EnglandGermanyW Germany 1-0 Argentina
1986QF: Brazil 1-1 FranceFranceL France 0-2 Germany
1986QF: Germany 0-0 MexicoGermanyW Germany 2-0 France
1986QF: Spain 1-1 BelgiumBelgiumL Belgium 0-2 Argentina

World cup first game winners

A request was made by someone on Twitter which teams had won their first games and how many points they got in the group. It was pretty tricky to write the queries to get this from the database but always up for a challenge and a push.

In the table below you can see every team that won their opening match and their final group stage points and the phase that they got knocked out in.

 

YearTeamFirst matchGroup pointsLast match
2010Argentinabt Nigeria 1-09Quarter-finals
2010Korea Republicbt Greece 2-04Round of 16
2010Sloveniabt Algeria 1-04Group matches
2010Germanybt Australia 4-06Third place
2010Ghanabt Serbia and Montenegro 1-04Quarter-finals
2010Netherlandsbt Denmark 2-09Final
2010Japanbt Cameroon 1-06Round of 16
2010Brazilbt Korea DPR 2-17Quarter-finals
2010Chilebt Honduras 1-06Round of 16
2010Switzerlandbt Spain 1-04Group matches
2006Germanybt Costa Rica 4-29Third place
2006Ecuadorbt Poland 2-06Round of 16
2006Englandbt Paraguay 1-07Quarter-finals
2006Argentinabt Ivory Coast 2-17Quarter-finals
2006Netherlandsbt Serbia and Montenegro 1-07Round of 16
2006Mexicobt Iran 3-14Round of 16
2006Portugalbt Angola 1-09Third place
2006Italybt Ghana 2-07Final
2006Czech Republicbt USA 3-03Group matches
2006Brazilbt Croatia 1-09Quarter-finals
2006Australiabt Japan 3-14Round of 16
2006Korea Republicbt Togo 2-14Group matches
2006Spainbt Ukraine 4-09Round of 16
2002Senegalbt France 1-05Quarter-finals
2002Denmarkbt Uruguay 2-17Round of 16
2002Spainbt Slovenia 3-19Quarter-finals
2002Brazilbt Turkey 2-19Final
2002Costa Ricabt China PR 2-04Group matches
2002Korea Republicbt Poland 2-07Third place
2002USAbt Portugal 3-24Quarter-finals
2002Germanybt Saudi Arabia 8-07Final
2002Argentinabt Nigeria 1-04Group matches
2002Mexicobt Croatia 1-07Round of 16
2002Italybt Ecuador 2-04Round of 16
2002Russiabt Tunisia 2-03Group matches
1998Brazilbt Scotland 2-16Final
1998Denmarkbt Saudi Arabia 1-04Quarter-finals
1998Francebt South Africa 3-09Final
1998Nigeriabt Spain 3-26Round of 16
1998Mexicobt Korea Republic 3-15Round of 16
1998Yugoslaviabt Iran 1-07Round of 16
1998Germanybt USA 2-07Quarter-finals
1998Romaniabt Colombia 1-07Round of 16
1998Englandbt Tunisia 2-06Round of 16
1998Croatiabt Jamaica 3-16Third place
1998Argentinabt Japan 1-09Quarter-finals

What difference does the heat make in Brazilian league matches?

Everyone keeps banging on about the heat in Brazil but isn’t it always hot? Spain 1982 would have been roasting in June. I remember running home from school to catch the game at 4:15pm and that would have been 5:15pm in Spain and damn hot. Visit Madrid in July and you’ll get an idea of how hot it will be there. Down South it would have been the same as well and the Guardian has an article about one of the semi finals and they say

“Their semi-final was at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, on 8 July 1982. Kick-off was 9pm but it was a muggy night in Seville, with the temperature in the high nineties.”

 

So in Brazil they say the worst places temperature wise are in the North and that includes 5 venues. I looked to see if any teams from those cities played in The Brazilian Championship in 2013.
Manaus – No team
Fortaleza – No team
Natal – No team
Recife – Nautico
Salvador – Bahia and EC Vitoria

So there are 3 teams and a quick test is to look at the total goals scored when any of these teams played at home and see if they are grouped at one end of the table.

Home TeamFATotal GoalsAv. Goals
AA Ponte Preta1926452.37
Atletico MG3916552.89
Atletico Paranaense3419532.79
Bahia1918371.95
Botafogo3014442.32
Corinthians175221.16
Coritiba FBC2919482.53
CR Vasco da Gama2623492.58
Criciuma2625512.68
Cruzeiro4716633.32
EC Vitoria3220522.74
Flamengo2519442.44
Fluminense FC2824522.74
Goias2716432.26
Gremio2412361.89
Internacional3024542.84
Nautico1435492.58
Portuguesa de Desportos3217492.58
Santos FC2813412.16
Sao Paulo2221432.26
League Total5483829302.45

Bahia and Vitoria are from the same city but at opposite ends of the table and Nautico are only a tiny bit above the league average so it doesn’t look like there is anything there

What about corners?

Home TeamFATotal CornersAv. Corners
AA Ponte Preta94891839.63
Atletico MG1197319210.11
Atletico Paranaense10310020310.68
Bahia89891789.37
Botafogo1299122011.58
Corinthians104811859.74
Coritiba FBC11210021211.16
CR Vasco da Gama1218320410.74
Criciuma10311521811.47
Cruzeiro1377521211.16
EC Vitoria13310423712.47
Flamengo1208620611.44
Fluminense FC1309022011.58
Goias112771899.95
Gremio1179821511.32
Internacional1437922211.68
Nautico999919810.42
Portuguesa de Desportos1259121611.37
Santos FC10910321211.16
Sao Paulo1337420710.89
League Total23321797412910.89

Bahia the lowest and Vitoria the highest and they are from the same city (Salvador).

The sample size here is small and there are many other factors that control how many goals or corners there will be, such as how both teams set out tactically and if they are pressing to score goals or just sit back and look to defend.

My real point here is we have no idea what impact the heat will have. Obviously people won’t be able to run quite so much but does that mean less goals, more goals, the same goals? Does the heat mean people are more likely to make mistakes? Will substitutes coming on around the 70 minute mark be that much fresher? I have no idea about the answers to any of these questions and have not found anyone else who does.

Win to Nil – w/end 28.02.2014

Which teams are most likely to win to nil this weekend?

DateLgeHmAwHm W2N%Am L2N%% CombinedEq. Odds
1-3Eng ConfCambridgeKidderminster6731492.04
1-3Tur SuperFenerbahceGenclerbirligi3660482.08
1-3Grk SuperXanthiLevadeiakos3362472.11
1-3Eng ConfBraintree TownHyde United5044472.13
2-3Eng PremTottenhamCardiff4646462.17
2-3Fra Lig 1Paris SGMarseille6923462.17
1-3Ita Serie ARomaInter7517462.18
1-3Eng ConfHalifaxTamworth4150462.19
2-3Eng PremSwanseaCrystal Palace3158452.24
2-3Spa PrimeraBarcelonaAlmeria5038442.26
1-3Scot PremAberdeenSt Johnstone4642442.28
2-3Tur SuperSivassporElazigspor4540432.34
2-3Grk SuperOlympiakosPanathinaikos6223422.36
1-3Scot PremCelticInverness C6223422.36
1-3Por SuperSporting LisbonSp Braga4044422.37
2-3Por SuperGil VicenteSetubal3350422.4
2-3Grk SuperPanioniosKallonis2558422.4
3-3Grk SuperPlataniasGiannina2358412.46
1-3Eng Lge 1WolvesPort Vale5325392.57
2-3Grk SuperAsteras TripolisPanthrakikos5423382.6
2-3Por SuperGuimaraesPorto4430372.69
2-3Por SuperNacionalRio Ave4033372.73
1-3Ger BundBayern MunichSchalke 04649362.75
1-3Eng ConfSouthportDartford2547362.78
1-3Fra Lig 1LorientBastia3338362.79
2-3Ita Serie AGenoaCatania3338362.79
1-3Eng ConfLutonAlfreton Town4428362.8
1-3Eng ConfWelling UnitedMacclesfield3833352.82
1-3Eng ConfBarnetWoking3535352.83
1-3Tur SuperKarabuksporGaziantepspor3040352.86
1-3Fra Lig 1NiceToulouse4623352.89
1-3Eng ChampQPRLeeds3831342.91
1-3Eng ChampNott'm ForestWigan2544342.91
1-3Eng Lge 1BradfordStevenage2938332.99
2-3NL EridvisGroningenCambuur2542333
1-3Fra Lig 1RennesGuingamp1550333.06
1-3Eng Lge 2PlymouthMorecambe2540333.08
28-2Spa PrimeraAth BilbaoGranada2342323.09
1-3Eng ChampLeicesterCharlton3133323.1
1-3Ger BundAugsburgHannover1055323.1
3-3Por SuperAroucaAcademica2044323.1
2-3Ita Serie AAtalantaChievo3331323.12
28-2Ger BundHerthaFreiburg1845323.14
1-3Fra Lig 1ReimsValenciennes1746313.18
1-3Eng ChampIpswichBirmingham2538313.2
1-3Scot PremMotherwellHearts3329313.23
1-3Eng PremHullNewcastle3131313.25
1-3Eng Lge 2Dag and RedMansfield3129303.3
1-3Eng Lge 2BurtonAccrington3525303.32
1-3Eng Lge 1CreweSwindon2535303.32
1-3Eng ChampHuddersfieldBarnsley1347303.38
Imported from Manual Input

BTTS long list for w/end 28.02.2014

List of matches for the coming weekend where the both teams combined (home matches for the home team and away matches for the away team) have the highest percentages of BTTS so far this season.

DateLeagueHmAwHm % BTTSAw % BTTS% BothEq. Odds
1/3NL EridvisZwolleNijmegen7783801.25
1/3Ger BundLeverkusenMainz7382771.29
1/3Eng Lge 1Bristol CityGillingham7669731.38
1/3NL EridvisGo Ahead EaglesPSV Eindhoven7569721.39
28/2NL EridvisHeraclesHeerenveen6775711.41
1/3Eng ConfGatesheadForest Green5980691.44
1/3Eng ConfGrimsbySalisbury8056681.47
1/3Eng PremStokeArsenal6269651.53
1/3Eng PremSouthamptonLiverpool5477651.53
1/3Eng Lge 2CheltenhamBury6960641.55
1/3Eng ConfAldershotLincoln6069641.55
1/3Eng Lge 2Newport CountyScunthorpe6959641.56
1/3Eng Lge 1RotherhamNotts County7553641.56
1/3Eng Lge 1TranmereOldham6959641.57
1/3Eng ChampBoltonBlackburn6363631.6
1/3Eng ChampBurnleyDerby5669631.6
1/3Eng Lge 1CarlisleBrentford6560621.6
1/3Scot PremSt MirrenKilmarnock5469621.62
1/3Eng ChampReadingYeovil6360611.63
1/3NL EridvisDen HaagNAC Breda6754601.66
1/3Scot PremRoss CountyPartick5762591.69
1/3Ger BundDortmundNurnberg4573591.69
28/2Tur SuperBesiktasAntalyaspor4473591.71
1/3NL EridvisVitesseRoda JC5858581.71
1/3Ger BundAugsburgHannover7045581.73
28/2Fra Lig 1Evian Thonon GaillardNantes8531581.73
1/3Eng PremFulhamChelsea7738581.73
1/3Eng ConfChesterNuneaton Town5659581.74
1/3Scot PremMotherwellHearts5064571.75
1/3Eng Lge 2Fleetwood TownAFC Wimbledon6944561.78
1/3Fra Lig 1ReimsValenciennes5854561.78
1/3Fra Lig 1LorientBastia5062561.79
1/3Eng ConfWelling UnitedMacclesfield5060551.82
1/3Eng Lge 2NorthamptonBristol Rvs6050551.82
1/3Eng Lge 1Leyton OrientColchester5060551.82
1/3Eng ChampLeicesterCharlton5653551.83
1/3Eng Lge 2RochdaleOxford4763551.83
1/3Eng ChampHuddersfieldBarnsley6347551.83
1/3Ger BundWerder BremenHamburg4564551.83
1/3Eng Lge 1PrestonWalsall6344531.88
1/3Eng ConfHerefordWrexham4759531.89
28/2Tur SuperAkhisar BelediyesporBursaspor6045531.9
1/3Por SuperEstorilOlhanense6044521.91
1/3Eng Lge 2SouthendWycombe5053521.94
1/3Eng ChampSheffield WedsMiddlesbrough5350521.94
1/3Fra Lig 1RennesGuingamp6242521.94
1/3Eng Lge 1CreweSwindon5053511.94
28/2Spa PrimeraAth BilbaoGranada7725511.96
1/3Eng Lge 2YorkExeter3171511.96
1/3Fra Lig 1St EtienneMonaco5446502
1/3Eng ConfBarnetWoking5941502
1/3Fra Lig 1SochauxBordeaux3367502
1/3Eng ChampBournemouthDoncaster5644502
1/3Tur SuperEskisehirsporKasimpasa4060502
List of matches with possibilty of BTTS this weekend

Win to Nil This Weekend

I have looked at the home team’s home record and the away team away to come up with an idea of the most likely win to nils this weekend. For example I looked at Liverpool at home and found 5/13 matches they won to nil and combined that with Swansea away who have lost 7/13 away to nil.

DateLeagueHomeAway% W2Nil%L2Nil% CombinedEq. Odds
22-2English PremiershipMan CityStoke5046482.08
22-2Scottish PremierRoss CountySt Mirren3362472.11
23-2Italy Serie AUdineseAtalanta3658472.11
23-2English PremiershipLiverpoolSwansea3854462.17
23-2Greece Super LeagueAtromitosXanthi5438462.17
23-2Netherlands EredivisieAjaxAZ Alkmaar5833462.18
22-2France Ligue 1BordeauxEvian Thonon Gaillard4250462.18
22-2English PremiershipArsenalSunderland5433442.29
23-2Spain PrimeraValenciaGranada4245442.3
22-2English PremiershipWest BromFulham2362422.36
23-2France Ligue 1LilleLyon6717422.4
22-2English ConferenceForest GreenSouthport3844412.43
22-2English ChampionshipBrightonWigan3347402.5
23-2Italy Serie ALazioSassuolo3642392.56
23-2Portugal SuperligaPortoEstoril780392.57
22-2Scottish PremierSt JohnstoneInverness C5027392.59
23-2Greece Super LeagueGianninaVeria3838382.6
23-2Turkey Super LigTrabzonsporKayserispor3640382.62
22-2Greece Super LeagueLevadeiakosAsteras Tripolis5817382.67
23-2France Ligue 1NantesRennes4233382.67
22-2France Ligue 1MarseilleLorient2550382.67
Win to nil stats for the coming weekend

Over 2.5 goals by month chart

My job is working with data and working with charts and I find it slightly frustrating that I can’t use Highcharts easily within wordpress. I had ideas for posts that never got off the ground because I wanted to show them in chart form on the blog and it seemed too much work.

Anyway I realised I can just host the charts on a normal page and then just link the from the blog. Amazing!

So to follow up from my article about months I wanted to show some of the patterns that happen by month by league. The first thing I want to look at is how the number of games that go over 2.5 goals changes throughout the season.  The full chart can be seen here and you can add or remove leagues by clicking on the legend. I started with just 4 leagues as it makes it just about readable, but you can play around with the leagues and add and remove them.

Link to chart

Champions League Idea Week 6

Well a big winner in week 5 landing the draw

Zenit and Atletico Madrid to draw @ 3.4 with quite a few (Max is 3.5 with Tote and Fred) WON +2.4

So far the results have been very good with 7 winners from 12 bets and a +5.67 point profit. Going in to this last week it is very tough to call. I see 4 bets that come out well on the odds offered but the question is whether to back them or not as the last round can throw up some strange results. Also being in profit by so much I don’t want to throw it all away but the odds look very good.

I am only going with one bet which is

Napoli to win at home to Arsenal (2.55 max with Bet Victor)

The other 2 that would have been included are

Real Sociedad to win at home to Bayer Leverkusen @ 4 with most (NOT INCLUDED THOUGH)

Marseille +1 Asian Handicap at home to Dortmund @ 2.14 with Bet Victor (max 2.2 with PP)  (NOT INCLUDED THOUGH)

but Sociedad and Marseille have nothing to play for. If I can see the Sociedad line up and Griezmann and Vela play then you know they will have a go and with the pressure off it could be a fantastic bet. I can’t predict the lineups though so I have to let it slide.

Half Time Report (Betting School Article)

Another Betting School article. This time one I originally wrote in November 2010. This one looks at full time outcomes based on half time results.

When the half time whistle goes and you get the urge to make a bet is there anything the first half can tell you? Of course you will have seen how the match has panned out and make judgements on what you think will happen but can stats help? The aim of this article is to look at a few of the in-play markets on Betfair and see if we can get some valuable pointers to the outcome of the game based on the half time result.

The data I am looking at is from the top division in England, Spain and Italy for the seasons from 2005-2006 to 2009-2010. The statistics and pre-match odds for the 5700 matches come from the treasure trove that is www.football-data.co.uk .

The in-play data was downloaded from the Betfair data site and is for the entire 2009-2010 season.  The Betfair data files contain so much information that all I have is the in-play data so the pre-match prices come from football-data. I have taken the half time data as prices that occur 50 minutes after match kick off.

Strong Favourites

The idea for this article came when watching Real Madrid away at Levante this season which was scoreless at half time. Looking at the data for the game I can see at kick off Madrid were matched at 1.24 on Betfair and this increased to 1.39 at half time.  I was convinced they would win and as the odds drifted, I decided they were great value and at half time and made my bet.

Let’s look at the results of some of these strong favourites. In the last 5 seasons in the 3 leagues I am using there were only 13 occasions when the away team was priced 1.3 or below. Interestingly on 6 of those occasions they were drawing at half time and went on to win. An example is Real Madrid on 13/02/2010 at Xerez when they were also drawing 0-0 at half time. On this occasion they started the game at 1.27 and could have been backed at 1.47 at half time before going on to win 3-0.

That’s not enough data so let’s look at home strong favourites, which I classify as teams priced at 1.3 or less using BbMxH (Betbrain maximum home win odds). All in all there have been 344 of these matches and the home team won 293 (85%) of these games.  If we look at games that were draws at half time we are left with 114 matches and the home team won 85 of them (74%).  To break even backing those teams we would need odds of 1.41 taking into account betfair commission of 5%. I have chosen 4 of those games to look at the Betfair data and get an idea of the sort of odds available.

Div

Date

Home

Away

First Match Odds in play

Match odds at HT

Eng Prem

26/12/2009

Liverpool

Wolves

1.3

1.61

Ita Seria A

09/01/2010

Inter

Siena

1.23

1.56

Eng Prem

31/10/2009

Man United

Blackburn

1.22

1.46

Spa Primera

26/09/2009

Real Madrid

Tenerife

1.11

1.3


In 3 out of 4 of these games the price required is reached and the game that didn’t had the home team ridiculously short (only 18 of the 114 matches had home odds lower than 1.2). This looks like a strategy with some promise but are there any angles that strengthen the chances of the game ending in a home win? Let’s check by leagues

Div

HT Draws

Won

Drew

Lost

Win %

Eng Prem

59

42

16

1

71%

Ita Seria A

27

18

8

1

67%

Spa Primera

28

25

1

2

89%

Clearly Spain looks the best league with which to follow this strategy. Spain, like Scotland, has a very unhealthy two team domination and Barcelona or Real Madrid have won the league in all but 4 of the last 26 seasons. The Big 2 therefore have a strong advantage and that would account for these figures.

Looking at games poised at 1-1 as opposed to 0-0 we see

Div

HT Draws

Won

Drew

Lost

Win %

Eng Prem

11

8

3

0

73%

Ita Seria A

6

5

1

0

83%

Spa Primera

10

9

1

0

90%

 Not a huge amount of data but a game that is already 1-1 looks more likely to go on to be a home win than a game that is goalless.  I think this demonstrates that although the chance of a home win decreases slightly when a match is all square at half time, the odds more than make up for this and provide value.

Going back to the Real Madrid game I was watching; the game stayed at 0-0 despite Real Madrid having 25 shots. There are numerous occasions when you watch this type of game and the pressure the favourite exerts increases and increase before the smaller team cracks and I’d back Real Madrid in the same position again.

For the record these are all the teams that started at odds of 1.3 or lower and their performance when drawing at half time. I only included teams with at least 4 matches.

Team

HT Draws

Won

Drew

Lost

Win %

Real Madrid

5

5

100%

Barcelona

13

12

1

92%

Man United

13

11

2

85%

Arsenal

4

3

1

75%

Inter

7

5

2

71%

Milan

3

2

1

67%

Chelsea

12

7

5

58%

Juventus

4

2

2

50%

Liverpool

5

2

3

40%

Scoreless second half

A number of Betfair markets such as next goal, correct score and the over/under markets are affected by the number of second half goals. Let’s look at the chances of a scoreless second half by league.

Div

Scoreless 2nd Half

Matches

% matches scoreless 2nd Half

Eng Prem

455

1900

24%

Spa Primera

434

1900

23%

Ita Seria A

432

1900

23%

Total

1321

5700

23%

 

There seems little difference across these leagues and in general  just under 1 in 4 matches has a scoreless second half. The next step is to see if the half time score affects that.

HT Score

Scoreless 2nd Half

Matches

% matches scoreless 2nd Half

0-0

455

1823

25.0%

1-0

297

1229

24.2%

0-1

165

846

19.5%

1-1

137

591

23.2%

2-0

99

392

25.3%

2-1

46

202

22.8%

0-2

33

193

17.1%

1-2

22

117

18.8%

3-0

20

89

22.5%

2-2

13

55

23.6%

 

The most interesting stat for me here is that a game that is 2-0 at half time is as likely to be scoreless in the second half as a game that is 0-0 and the chance is still 1 in 4.  To investigate this further I dropped all matches with a strong favourite which I classify as teams priced at 1.3 or less using BbMxH (Betbrain maximum home win odds). In the Betfair data for 2009/2010 I was left with 66 games that were 2-0 at half time.

In these games I want to see what sort of profit would have been made backing the no goals being scored in the second half. A 2-0 half time game has a number of markets which are all the same such as 2-0 correct score, no next goal and under 2.5 and it’s the latter I will use as the data is easiest to deal with having just 2 outcomes and also better liquidity.

The full table showing all 66 results is produced at the end of the article. I looked for an under 2.5 goals price matched around 50 minutes after the start of the match. 20 of the 66 games went on to stay 2-0 and backing under 2.5 goals at the half time price I found would have returned a whopping 23 points profit which is an ROI of around 35%. The results also demonstrate the fluctuations that can happen in betting. If you started this idea on the opening Saturday of the season come Valentines Day you would have been in love with it, up 33 points and with an ROI of over 80%! The other people you told about it who started the day after might not have been so pleased with the 9 point loss they were saddled with to the end of the season. The same odds would no doubt be available for backing 2-0 as a correct score or no next goal.

In conclusion it looks like goals do not necessarily mean more goals although the perception of the general betting public is that it does.

Will they draw?

On a similar theme does the half time score affect the chance of the game drawing. Here is a list of scores and the chance of the game ending in a draw.

HT Score

Ends in draw

Matches

% Chance of draw

2-2

19

46

41%

0-0

673

1745

39%

1-1

206

564

37%

1-2

30

116

26%

0-1

194

830

23%

1-0

223

1122

20%

2-1

30

183

16%

0-2

15

191

8%

2-0

21

337

6%

3-0

1

75

1%

Quite clear if a game is a draw at half time then there’s a good chance of the final score being a draw. In this case what stands out to me is the fact that games that are 1-0 or 2-1 have a much lower draw chance and worth looking to see if laying the draw is possible.

In this case checking the Betfair data is not as easy as before as the data is only stamped as to when it first and last occurred.  Therefore an odds value may occur in the first half, half time and the second half but it is not possible to know the half time value as only the first and last time the odds were taken is available without paying.

In this case I have looked at games where the away team started off as a favourite (BbMxA > BbMxH) to give myself an idea of the target odds.

Div

FT Draw

Matches

% FT Draws

Betfair Odds Required

Eng Prem

8

65

12.3%

8.125

Ita Serie A

8

59

13.6%

7.375

Spa Primera

7

49

14.3%

7

It would be nice to prove this as a back or lay strategy but as the data does not allow it and it will have to be a watching brief.

Conclusion

The two clear messages that come out of this are firstly, that if a team are strong pre-game favourites the drift of odds in play can work in your favour. If I see Real Madrid again drawing at half time I will be happy to go in again and back them to win hoping that 25 shots will be enough this time! Secondly, goals do not necessarily mean more goals and if you want to stand out from the crowd go under as that seems to be where the money is.

 

Table showing Betfair in play half time odds for under 2.5 goals when the HT score was 2-0

Div

Date

Home

Away

First In Play Match

Under 2.5 Match at HT

Final Score

Profit less 5%

Eng Prem

15/08/2009

Stoke

Burnley

1.78

3.8

2-0

2.66

Ita Serie A

30/08/2009

Napoli

Livorno

1.88

4.3

3-1

-1

Ita Serie A

30/08/2009

Sampdoria

Udinese

2.14

5

3-1

-1

Ita Serie A

19/09/2009

Juventus

Livorno

2.18

5.7

2-0

4.465

Eng Prem

19/09/2009

Aston Villa

Portsmouth

2.06

4.4

2-0

3.23

Ita Serie A

20/09/2009

Sampdoria

Siena

2

5

4-1

-1

Spa Primera

20/09/2009

Ath Bilbao

Villarreal

1.92

4.2

3-2

-1

Ita Serie A

20/09/2009

Chievo

Genoa

1.77

4.4

3-1

-1

Spa Primera

22/09/2009

Sevilla

Mallorca

2.28

5.3

2-0

4.085

Eng Prem

26/09/2009

Tottenham

Burnley

2.72

5.7

5-0

-1

Spa Primera

27/09/2009

Zaragoza

Getafe

2

4.1

3-0

-1

Ita Serie A

04/10/2009

Palermo

Juventus

2.02

6.2

2-0

4.94

Spa Primera

18/10/2009

Zaragoza

Santander

2.02

4.8

2-2

-1

Ita Serie A

28/10/2009

Juventus

Sampdoria

2.02

4.3

5-1

-1

Eng Prem

31/10/2009

Arsenal

Tottenham

2.74

5.4

3-0

-1

Eng Prem

31/10/2009

Stoke

Wolves

1.74

3.9

2-2

-1

Eng Prem

31/10/2009

Portsmouth

Wigan

1.82

4.3

4-0

-1

Ita Serie A

28/11/2009

Udinese

Livorno

1.7

3.9

2-0

2.755

Spa Primera

29/11/2009

Valladolid

Tenerife

1.95

4.1

3-3

-1

Eng Prem

05/12/2009

Aston Villa

Hull

2.02

4.6

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

19/12/2009

Ath Bilbao

Osasuna

1.71

4.3

2-0

3.135

Eng Prem

26/12/2009

Man City

Stoke

1.94

4.4

2-0

3.23

Eng Prem

11/01/2010

Man City

Blackburn

2.04

4.2

4-1

-1

Spa Primera

16/01/2010

Osasuna

Espanol

1.59

4.1

2-0

2.945

Eng Prem

16/01/2010

Everton

Man City

1.94

4.3

2-0

3.135

Ita Serie A

17/01/2010

Roma

Genoa

2.1

4.8

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

17/01/2010

Valencia

Villarreal

2.14

5.3

4-1

-1

Ita Serie A

24/01/2010

Genoa

Atalanta

1.93

3.95

2-0

2.8025

Ita Serie A

24/01/2010

Palermo

Fiorentina

1.8

4.2

3-0

-1

Eng Prem

27/01/2010

Everton

Sunderland

1.99

5

2-0

3.8

Eng Prem

31/01/2010

Man City

Portsmouth

2.14

4.5

2-0

3.325

Spa Primera

06/02/2010

Valencia

Valladolid

2.46

5.3

2-0

4.085

Eng Prem

06/02/2010

Stoke

Blackburn

1.68

3.45

3-0

-1

Ita Serie A

07/02/2010

Inter

Cagliari

2.26

5.7

3-0

-1

Eng Prem

07/02/2010

Chelsea

Arsenal

1.95

4.2

2-0

3.04

Eng Prem

09/02/2010

Fulham

Burnley

1.73

4.8

3-0

-1

Ita Serie A

13/02/2010

Sampdoria

Fiorentina

1.78

3.9

2-0

2.755

Ita Serie A

14/02/2010

Cagliari

Bari

1.8

4.5

3-1

-1

Spa Primera

21/02/2010

Ath Bilbao

Tenerife

1.93

5.7

4-1

-1

Ita Serie A

21/02/2010

Cagliari

Parma

1.96

4.2

2-0

3.04

Ita Serie A

21/02/2010

Palermo

Lazio

1.87

3.6

3-1

-1

Ita Serie A

27/02/2010

Catania

Bari

1.71

3.7

4-0

-1

Ita Serie A

28/02/2010

Milan

Atalanta

2.24

4.8

3-1

-1

Eng Prem

28/02/2010

Tottenham

Everton

1.82

4.2

2-1

-1

Spa Primera

07/03/2010

Ath Bilbao

Valladolid

1.92

4.3

2-0

3.135

Eng Prem

20/03/2010

Sunderland

Birmingham

1.72

3.75

3-1

-1

Spa Primera

20/03/2010

Xerez

Tenerife

2

5.3

2-1

-1

Eng Prem

28/03/2010

Liverpool

Sunderland

2.3

6.6

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

28/03/2010

Villarreal

Sevilla

1.99

5.4

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

28/03/2010

Xerez

Valladolid

1.74

4.4

3-0

-1

Spa Primera

03/04/2010

Sevilla

Tenerife

2.36

4.4

3-0

-1

Ita Serie A

03/04/2010

Catania

Palermo

1.69

4.7

2-0

3.515

Eng Prem

03/04/2010

Sunderland

Tottenham

1.98

4.7

3-1

-1

Ita Serie A

11/04/2010

Roma

Atalanta

2.48

4.9

2-1

-1

Spa Primera

11/04/2010

Ath Bilbao

Almeria

1.96

4.6

4-1

-1

Spa Primera

11/04/2010

Mallorca

Valencia

2.02

5

3-2

-1

Eng Prem

17/04/2010

Sunderland

Burnley

2.24

5.2

2-1

-1

Spa Primera

17/04/2010

Villarreal

Ath Madrid

2.42

5

2-1

-1

Eng Prem

17/04/2010

Tottenham

Chelsea

2.12

5.9

2-1

-1

Eng Prem

19/04/2010

Liverpool

West Ham

2.02

4.7

3-0

-1

Eng Prem

24/04/2010

Bolton

Portsmouth

2.1

4.8

2-2

-1

Ita Serie A

24/04/2010

Palermo

Milan

2.08

5.1

3-1

-1

Spa Primera

25/04/2010

Ath Madrid

Tenerife

2.1

5.9

3-1

-1

Eng Prem

01/05/2010

Birmingham

Burnley

1.91

4.4

2-1

-1

Spa Primera

08/05/2010

Villarreal

Valencia

2.6

6.4

2-0

5.13

Ita Serie A

15/05/2010

Milan

Juventus

2.38

6

3-0

-1

 

TOTAL

23.21

AVERAGE

2.02

4.73

0.35