Tweeted Stats Round Up (April – July 2016)

44 selections over these 4 months and not good results. At the end of the season the over and under bets did not do well. The summary of results is shown below and the full list is on the tweeted bets page.

For a number of leagues such as MLS and Brasileiro we have not had prices previously. From September we will switch from using football-data prices and use the prices collected from the bookmakers displayed on the site. We suspect if we had had these prices since April then the results would look much better. There have been 21 tweeted bets from April to July without prices and 14 of them have been winners.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Apr-16Over 2.585-3.1862%-3.18
Apr-16Under 2.554-1.2756%-4.45
May-16Over 2.5420.8367%-3.62
May-16Under 2.533-1.9450%-5.56
Jun-16Over 2.5100100%-5.56
Jul-16Over 2.5530%63-5.56
Jul-16Under 2.5010%0-5.56

Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer Roundups

A small profit on these bets as Bale came up trumps. A reminder of the bets placed, not good when you see Dzyba and De Bruyne is below.

Top Goalscorer Choice (e/w at ¼ odds on 4 places) – Artyom Dzyba (currently 80/1), Kevin De Bruyne (currently 40/1) and Gareth Bale (currently 50/1) – All 1/4pt e/w

bale

Griezmann was the clear winner with 6 goals and Bale tied with Nani, Ronaldo (both Portugal), Payet, Giroud (both France) and Morata. The each way part of the bet was a winner but split as there were 7 places. A £10 e/w bet should have returned £47.50 profit (£67.50 – (2 x £10)).

The stakes were 1/4pt e/w so 1.5 points staked overall and the profit was 0.19pts.

Tweeted Stats Round Up (Feb and Mar 2016)

The under bets for March took a big whack and now overall the tweeted bets are showing a loss. The full results are here but again these are to average prices and not to best prices. As we get later on in the season there are generally more goals so hopefully the over 2.5 stats can come strong and get back into profit.

Over 2.5 recorded a profit in both months and a high strike rate.

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Feb-16Over 2.518120.7160%0.71
Feb-16Under 2.51481.2564%1.96
Feb-16Win HT/FT0100%1.96
Mar-16Over 2.51130.7979%2.75
Mar-16Under 2.566-3.2150%-0.46
Mar-16Win HT/FT100%100-0.46

Europa League Last 8

Sevilla and Villarreal both made it through to the last day and Villarreal got a nice draw in Sparta Prague. Sevilla have to face Athletic Bilbao which is a tricky match but they are favourites to get through. Borussia Dortmund are now just a best priced 2.75 to win the trophy which seems ridiculously short when they have 2 rounds to get through before the one off of the final.

Gameiro

Dortmund v Liverpool is the pick of the round and should be a fascinating contest. Shaktar Donetsk look to be the dark horse and are now back playing in their season again and have survived the winter break.

 

A summary of the bets

Sevilla 13.0 generally (15.0 with Corals) 1pt NOW BEST PRICE 7.0

Villarreal 26.0 generally 0.5pt e/w NOW BEST PRICE 8.0

Fiorentina 26.0 generally 1pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

Sporting Lisbon 41.0 generally (51.0 with Bet365) 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final

Europa League last 16

Not the ideal start to the Europa League tips as Sporting Lisbon and Fiorentina were both knocked out. Spurs were worthy winners and Sporting were disappointing against Leverkusen. Villarreal got past Napoli and have another tough draw against Leverkusen and are best priced 15.0. Sevilla got through and play Basel in the next round and are in to 2nd favourites at a best priced 9.0

 

tomas-pina-napoli-villarreal-europa-league_1kwlsxuvctquq1s167ym1rq3na

 

The Italian teams have disappointed again and Roma and Juve could both be out of the Champions League this round that will leave just Lazio in. Could Sparta Prague be good enough to beat them?  The full draw is shown below

Shakhtar Donetsk v Anderlecht

Basel v Sevilla

Villarreal v Bayer Leverkusen

Athletic Bilbao v Valencia

Liverpool v Manchester United

Sparta Prague v Lazio

Borussia Dortmund v Tottenham

Fenerbahce v Braga

Shaktar Donetsk had a very good result in the last round and have a nice draw this time round and Fenerbahce should be too good for Braga. Dortmund v Spurs is the pick of the round and means Dortmund are going to have to beat them followed by 3 other tough matchups to win this trophy. 5.5 still seems much too short on them.

 

A summary of the bets

Sevilla 13.0 generally (15.0 with Corals) 1pt NOW BEST PRICE 9.0

Villarreal 26.0 generally 0.5pt e/w NOW BEST PRICE 15.0

Fiorentina 26.0 generally 1pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

Sporting Lisbon 41.0 generally (51.0 with Bet365) 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final

Tweeted Stats Round Up (Jan 2016)

A losing month in January. Under 2.5 goals had the biggest loss which is not normal. Again these results are to average prices and not maximum prices.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Jan-16BTTS100100%0
Jan-16Over 2.52513-0.8666%-0.86
Jan-16Under 2.5119-2.855%-3.66
Jan-16Win HT/FT22050%-3.66
Jan-16Win to Nil100100%-3.66

Tweeted Stats Round Up (Oct – Dec 2015)

An error had been made in the query that displayed the tweeted stats on the site that was crediting the over 2.5 stats too much and taking profit from the under 2.5 stats. It was meant to be excluding matches yet to be played but ended up excluding matches where the home team had 0 goals. A big mistake but that has been rectified now

Overall the tweeted stats are still in profit but that is thanks to the under 2.5 goals stats which have now passed the 100 tweets mark and are in profit. It has to be remembered that all these prices are also to average prices so there is a big difference between them and maximum prices available. Under 2.5 had two profitable months before a bad December. The games over Christmas in the UK were very unpredictable.

The table below shows the stats

MonthBet TypeWonLostSR P/LCum P/L
Oct-15Over 2.51112-2.67%00
Oct-15Under 2.5140.51%00
Oct-15Win HT/FT110%00
Nov-15BTTS330%00
Nov-15Over 2.526117.56%00
Nov-15Under 2.52193.27%00
Nov-15Win HT/FT310%00
Nov-15Win to Nil110%00
Dec-15BTTS130%00
Dec-15Over 2.52319-3.91%00
Dec-15Under 2.51412-5.43%-1-1
Dec-15Win HT/FT610%0-1
Dec-15Win to Nil130%0-1

 

 

Champions League: Matchday 6 Roundup

Wolfsburg – Manchester United – Manchester United@ 3.28 with Pinnacle LOST (3-2) -1

Chelsea v FC Porto – Chelsea @ 2.0 with Dafabet WON (2-0) +1

2 bets, 1 win, 2pts staked, 0pts

 

Results so far

21 bets, 6 wins, 21pts staked, -5.29pts

 

Ends with a no loss day and another disappointing night for Man United. Bet on them 4 times this season in this and they lost 3 of those costing -2.2 points. Missed a few draws as well but hard to put any positive spin on such a big loss.

Tweeted Stats Overdue summer roundup

The tweeted stats have been on a good run lately and the results can now be seen here nicely split up, but have not rounded them up since  June. There were 48 bets across the months June to September so they are grouped together by month below.

 

The majority of these games were in leagues where there is no historical prices for the matches so it is unable to see if they were profitable or not.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostSRP/LCum P/L
Jun-15BTTS2167%00
Jun-15Under 2.52167%00
Jul-15Over 2.54267%00
Jul-15Under 2.53350%00
Jul-15Win HT/FT1325%00
Jul-15Win to Nil1150%00
Aug-15Over 2.54357%00
Aug-15Under 2.53260%00
Aug-15Win HT/FT1150%00
Aug-15Win to Nil010%00
Sep-15Over 2.51233%-1-1
Sep-15Under 2.52340%0-1
Sep-15Win to Nil10100%0-1

 

Champions League: Matchday 5 Roundup

Always hard to do roundups when things go wrong and feel a bit like Ottamendi looks below. Two losses here as Zenit proved too good for Valencia and Man Utd were very disappointing.

 

manjuv

Zenit vs Valencia – Draw @ 3.32 with 5Dimes LOST (2-0) -1

Manchester United vs PSV  – Manchester United -1 @ 1.84 with Dafabet LOST (0-0) -1

2 bets, 0 wins, 2pts staked, -2pts

 

Results so far

19 bets, 5 wins, 19pts staked, -5.29pts

 

The strike rate is always pretty low for this and it relies on there being one or two shocks. Decision making might need to be revised as there is now a strict hierachy in the champions league and the real big guns like Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich do not give a fair representation on their countries. Bayern Munich are on a completely different level to the other German clubs now and this idea needs to reflect that.