Europa League 2017-18 Roundup 1

Napoli were 3rd favourite and they got knocked out last night against RB Leipzig and Dortmund needed an 83rd minute equaliser to go through against Atalanta. This is a tough tournament to win and now there are still 3 more rounds before the final.

Update

Outrights

Sporting 34 (33/1) with Bet365 (1/2pt each way) – 25/1 generally

Marseille 34 (33/1) generally  (1/2pt each way) – 18/1 generally

Villarreal 26 (25/1) generally (1/2pt each way) – OUT -1

Round of 32 bets

Ludogrets to qualify vs AC Milan 4 with Bet365 (1/2 pt) – LOST -0.5

 

The draw for the next round will have a big effect on the prices and Arsenal look very short at 5.0

Tweeted Stats Round Up (April – July 2016)

44 selections over these 4 months and not good results. At the end of the season the over and under bets did not do well. The summary of results is shown below and the full list is on the tweeted bets page.

For a number of leagues such as MLS and Brasileiro we have not had prices previously. From September we will switch from using football-data prices and use the prices collected from the bookmakers displayed on the site. We suspect if we had had these prices since April then the results would look much better. There have been 21 tweeted bets from April to July without prices and 14 of them have been winners.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Apr-16Over 2.585-3.1862%-3.18
Apr-16Under 2.554-1.2756%-4.45
May-16Over 2.5420.8367%-3.62
May-16Under 2.533-1.9450%-5.56
Jun-16Over 2.5100100%-5.56
Jul-16Over 2.5530%63-5.56
Jul-16Under 2.5010%0-5.56

Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer Roundups

A small profit on these bets as Bale came up trumps. A reminder of the bets placed, not good when you see Dzyba and De Bruyne is below.

Top Goalscorer Choice (e/w at ¼ odds on 4 places) – Artyom Dzyba (currently 80/1), Kevin De Bruyne (currently 40/1) and Gareth Bale (currently 50/1) – All 1/4pt e/w

bale

Griezmann was the clear winner with 6 goals and Bale tied with Nani, Ronaldo (both Portugal), Payet, Giroud (both France) and Morata. The each way part of the bet was a winner but split as there were 7 places. A £10 e/w bet should have returned £47.50 profit (£67.50 – (2 x £10)).

The stakes were 1/4pt e/w so 1.5 points staked overall and the profit was 0.19pts.

Tweeted Stats Round Up (Feb and Mar 2016)

The under bets for March took a big whack and now overall the tweeted bets are showing a loss. The full results are here but again these are to average prices and not to best prices. As we get later on in the season there are generally more goals so hopefully the over 2.5 stats can come strong and get back into profit.

Over 2.5 recorded a profit in both months and a high strike rate.

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Feb-16Over 2.518120.7160%0.71
Feb-16Under 2.51481.2564%1.96
Feb-16Win HT/FT0100%1.96
Mar-16Over 2.51130.7979%2.75
Mar-16Under 2.566-3.2150%-0.46
Mar-16Win HT/FT100%100-0.46

Europa League Last 8

Sevilla and Villarreal both made it through to the last day and Villarreal got a nice draw in Sparta Prague. Sevilla have to face Athletic Bilbao which is a tricky match but they are favourites to get through. Borussia Dortmund are now just a best priced 2.75 to win the trophy which seems ridiculously short when they have 2 rounds to get through before the one off of the final.

Gameiro

Dortmund v Liverpool is the pick of the round and should be a fascinating contest. Shaktar Donetsk look to be the dark horse and are now back playing in their season again and have survived the winter break.

 

A summary of the bets

Sevilla 13.0 generally (15.0 with Corals) 1pt NOW BEST PRICE 7.0

Villarreal 26.0 generally 0.5pt e/w NOW BEST PRICE 8.0

Fiorentina 26.0 generally 1pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

Sporting Lisbon 41.0 generally (51.0 with Bet365) 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final