The Simple Weekend (Tweets)

Always nice to get to Friday and it’s a big weekend for football. Bet365 tweeted the big games and it is impressive

On the subject of twitter we send out stats on Twitter highlighting games that pass a certain threshold. We get some nice tweets in return but also sometimes just unhelpful stuff like

All the tweets we send are just advice and for users to check them out further. Sadly we don’t have prices for all the tweets we have sent but there have been 390 tweets for over/under 2.5 bets and we have prices for all of these. We took the average price from football-data.co.uk for these as that seemed a better guide of whether they can be profitable or not. Over the 390 bets the loss has been 3.32 points which really is less than a loss of 1% of the total stakes. Using best prices or just Betfair you’d assume a decent profit could be made.

So really when people day it’s a horrible way to price a market it’s not necessarily the case and worth looking into the results first.

There have been 13/21 winning bets this season for a profit of 0.93pts. If we were to use maximum price then the profit would increase to 1.95pts with each winning bet on average having an 0.08 improvement in profit. There have been 238 winning bets so if they all had an 0.05pt improvement, so less than the average we saw above, then it’s an 11.9pt increase in profit so it seems as if backing these blindly at good prices will produce a profit.

Will get a full list of these bets for next week.

 

 

Tweeted Stats Round Up (April – July 2016)

44 selections over these 4 months and not good results. At the end of the season the over and under bets did not do well. The summary of results is shown below and the full list is on the tweeted bets page.

For a number of leagues such as MLS and Brasileiro we have not had prices previously. From September we will switch from using football-data prices and use the prices collected from the bookmakers displayed on the site. We suspect if we had had these prices since April then the results would look much better. There have been 21 tweeted bets from April to July without prices and 14 of them have been winners.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Apr-16Over 2.585-3.1862%-3.18
Apr-16Under 2.554-1.2756%-4.45
May-16Over 2.5420.8367%-3.62
May-16Under 2.533-1.9450%-5.56
Jun-16Over 2.5100100%-5.56
Jul-16Over 2.5530%63-5.56
Jul-16Under 2.5010%0-5.56

Tweeted Stats Round Up (Feb and Mar 2016)

The under bets for March took a big whack and now overall the tweeted bets are showing a loss. The full results are here but again these are to average prices and not to best prices. As we get later on in the season there are generally more goals so hopefully the over 2.5 stats can come strong and get back into profit.

Over 2.5 recorded a profit in both months and a high strike rate.

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Feb-16Over 2.518120.7160%0.71
Feb-16Under 2.51481.2564%1.96
Feb-16Win HT/FT0100%1.96
Mar-16Over 2.51130.7979%2.75
Mar-16Under 2.566-3.2150%-0.46
Mar-16Win HT/FT100%100-0.46

Tweeted Stats Round Up (Jan 2016)

A losing month in January. Under 2.5 goals had the biggest loss which is not normal. Again these results are to average prices and not maximum prices.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Jan-16BTTS100100%0
Jan-16Over 2.52513-0.8666%-0.86
Jan-16Under 2.5119-2.855%-3.66
Jan-16Win HT/FT22050%-3.66
Jan-16Win to Nil100100%-3.66

Tweeted Stats Round Up (Oct – Dec 2015)

An error had been made in the query that displayed the tweeted stats on the site that was crediting the over 2.5 stats too much and taking profit from the under 2.5 stats. It was meant to be excluding matches yet to be played but ended up excluding matches where the home team had 0 goals. A big mistake but that has been rectified now

Overall the tweeted stats are still in profit but that is thanks to the under 2.5 goals stats which have now passed the 100 tweets mark and are in profit. It has to be remembered that all these prices are also to average prices so there is a big difference between them and maximum prices available. Under 2.5 had two profitable months before a bad December. The games over Christmas in the UK were very unpredictable.

The table below shows the stats

MonthBet TypeWonLostSR P/LCum P/L
Oct-15Over 2.51112-2.67%00
Oct-15Under 2.5140.51%00
Oct-15Win HT/FT110%00
Nov-15BTTS330%00
Nov-15Over 2.526117.56%00
Nov-15Under 2.52193.27%00
Nov-15Win HT/FT310%00
Nov-15Win to Nil110%00
Dec-15BTTS130%00
Dec-15Over 2.52319-3.91%00
Dec-15Under 2.51412-5.43%-1-1
Dec-15Win HT/FT610%0-1
Dec-15Win to Nil130%0-1

 

 

Tweeted Stats Overdue summer roundup

The tweeted stats have been on a good run lately and the results can now be seen here nicely split up, but have not rounded them up since  June. There were 48 bets across the months June to September so they are grouped together by month below.

 

The majority of these games were in leagues where there is no historical prices for the matches so it is unable to see if they were profitable or not.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostSRP/LCum P/L
Jun-15BTTS2167%00
Jun-15Under 2.52167%00
Jul-15Over 2.54267%00
Jul-15Under 2.53350%00
Jul-15Win HT/FT1325%00
Jul-15Win to Nil1150%00
Aug-15Over 2.54357%00
Aug-15Under 2.53260%00
Aug-15Win HT/FT1150%00
Aug-15Win to Nil010%00
Sep-15Over 2.51233%-1-1
Sep-15Under 2.52340%0-1
Sep-15Win to Nil10100%0-1

 

Tweeted stats for week ending 7th June

There will not be weekly roundups of these stats now but rather just monthly ones as less leagues are playing. Also The Both Teams To Score and Both Teams To Score And Win stats will now be removed and won’t be tweeted again as they had a strike rate of 58% which is probably a bit too low.

 

A full roundup of the stats will take place in a week or so.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
1-6Under 2.5 Today - Lanus (h) 5/6 + Olimpo de Bahia Blanca (a) 5/7 = 10/13 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2902-0Win00
5-6BTTS Today - Gimnasia La Plata (h) 5/7 + Union de Santa Fe (a) 5/6 = 10/13 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2905-2Win00
7-6BTTS Today - Rosario Central (h) 5/6 + Independiente (a) 5/7 = 10/13 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2901-1Win00
7-6BTTS Today - Atletico Rafaela (h) 6/6 + Nueva Chicago (a) 4/7 = 10/13 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2702-0Lost00

Tweeted stats for week ending 31st May

2 winners and 2 losers for this but no prices available for the matches that were playoffs etc such as the Serie B match. The Spanish Segunda finishes this weekend and there will be a roundup then and less tips sent.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
30-5Under 2.5 Today - Union de Santa Fe (h) 6/7 + Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (a) 5/6 = 11/13 (85%) - implied odds of 1.1801-0Win00
30-5Under 2.5 Today - Virtus Entella (h) 16/21 + Modena (a) 17/21 = 33/42 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2702-2Lost00
30-5Under 2.5 Today - Belgrano de Cordoba (h) 4/7 + Gimnasia La Plata (a) 6/6 = 10/13 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2700-1Win00
31-5Under 2.5 Today - Aldosivi (h) 4/6 + Racing Club (a) 6/6 = 10/12 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2001-2Lost00

Tweeted stats for week ending 24th May

A bit behind on all this and will catch up.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
22-5Under 2.5 Today - Crucero del Norte (h) 6/6 + Defensa y Justicia (a) 4/6 = 10/12 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2003-1Lost00
22-5Under 2.5 Today - Niort (h) 12/18 + Laval (a) 16/18 = 28/36 (78%) - implied odds of 1.292.050-3Lost-1-1
22-5Win to Nil Today - Troyes (h) 11/18 + Chateauroux (a) 11/18 = 22/36 (61%) - implied odds of 1.6404-1Lost0-1
23-5BTTS Today - Kasimpasa (h) 11/16 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 13/16 = 24/32 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3303-3Win0-1
23-5Under 2.5 Today - Mechelen (h) 10/15 + Lokeren (a) 13/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.3002-1Lost0-1
23-5Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 17/24 + Getafe (a) 10/18 = 27/42 (63%) - implied odds of 1.5803-3Lost0-1

Tweeted stats for week ending 17th May

Great week for the tweeted stats with 6/7 winning. The League Two playoff was a winner but don’t have the odds for that.

 

Monaco

 

Monaco were a very big price for under 2.5 and you would expect more goals at this time of the season but luckily not in the games selected. The full results can be seen here and the last weeks results are below.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
11-5Under 2.5 Today - Karlsruher SC (h) 11/15 + SV Darmstadt 98 (a) 12/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.301.590-1Win0.590.59
13-5BTTS + win Today - Trabzonspor (h) 9/15 + Bursaspor (a) 5/15 = 14/30 (47%) - implied odds of 2.1401-0Lost00.59
14-5Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 21/23 + Stevenage (a) 14/23 = 35/46 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3101-1Win00.59
16-5BTTS Today - Varese (h) 15/20 + Pescara (a) 15/20 = 30/40 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-1Win00.59
16-5Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 19/23 + Metz (a) 13/18 = 32/41 (77%) - implied odds of 1.292.012-0Win1.011.6
16-5Under 2.5 Today - Virtus Entella (h) 15/20 + Latina (a) 16/20 = 31/40 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.672-0Win0.672.27
17-5Under 2.5 Today - Torino (h) 13/17 + Chievo (a) 14/17 = 27/34 (79%) - implied odds of 1.261.772-0Win0.773.04