All kicking off in Europe

The European leagues really start getting going this weekend, although a couple such as the Austrian Bundesliga are already underway. Just want to run through a few details about the site and what stats you can see and where.

Corner Console: This has stats for English Premier League, English Championship, English League One, English League Two, English Conference, Scottish Premier, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, Netherlands Eredivisie, Portugal Superliga, Greece Super League, Turkey Super Lig, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX, Argentina Primera, Germany Bundesliga 2, Denmark Superliga, Austria Bundesliga, Russia Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Sweden Allsvenskan and UEFA Europa League.

The leagues in bold also have corner stats by halves.

 

Main Console: All leagues feature in this but Belgium Jupiler League, France Ligue 2, Italy Serie B, Scottish Championship, Scottish League 1, Scottish League 2 and Spain La Segunda do not have card stats.

 

Mini Console: Does not have cards for the leagues as listed in the mini console and has corners for all the leagues listed in the corner console.

 

Team Stats: All leagues are featured in this but as listed above some leagues do not have full stats. Also stats for a league only appear once a team has played at both home and away.

 

Match Stats and Tweet Bets: All leagues appear in these pages.

 

Goal Times: English Premier League, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX and Argentina Primeraall appear on this page.

 

Half Time Scores: At present this has English Premier League, English Championship, English League One, English League Two ,English Conference, Scottish Premier, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera ,Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, Netherlands Eredivisie, Portugal Superliga, Greece Super League, Turkey Super Lig, Belgium Jupiler League, Germany Bundesliga 2, France Ligue 2, Italy Serie B, Scottish Championship, Scottish League 1, Scottish League 2 and Spain La Segunda.

 

Heatmap: This includes all leagues but like the team stats does not have all stats for all leagues. The full grid is shown below.

 

Lge Viz: All leagues

 

Player Times: English Premier League, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX and Argentina Primeraall appear on this page.

 

The grid below shows all the stats and which leagues include them.

LeagueCornersCorner HTCardsShots/Fouls/Offsides etc 
Argentina PrimeraYESYESYESYES
Australia A-LeagueNONOYESNO
Austria BundesligaYESNOYESYES
Belgium Jupiler LeagueNONONONO
Brazil Futebol BrasileiroYESYESYESYES
Denmark SuperligaYESNOYESYES
English ChampionshipYESNOYESYES
English ConferenceYESNOYESYES
English League OneYESNOYESYES
English League TwoYESNOYESYES
English Premier LeagueYESYESYESYES
UEFA Champions LeagueYESYESYESYES
UEFA Europa LeagueYESYESYESYES
France Ligue 1YESYESYESYES
France Ligue 2NONONONO
Germany BundesligaYESYESYESYES
Germany Bundesliga 2YESNOYESYES
Greece Super LeagueYESNOYESYES
Italy Serie AYESYESYESYES
Italy Serie BNONONONO
Mexico Liga MXYESYESYESYES
Netherlands EredivisieYESNOYESYES
Norway TippeligaenYESNOYESNO
Portugal SuperligaYESNOYESYES
Russia Premier LeagueYESNOYESYES
Scottish ChampionshipNONONONO
Scottish League 1NONONONO
Scottish League 2NONONONO
Scottish PremierYESNOYESYES
Spain La SegundaNONONONO
Spain PrimeraYESYESYESYES
Sweden AllsvenskanYESNOYESYES
Turkey Super LigYESNOYESYES
USA MLSYESYESYESYES

Brier Score to predict unpredictability

In the latest Betting Insiders magazine from The Betting School we wrote an article that included some testing of midweek fixtures using the Brier score. The idea for this came from the Pinnacle Betting Blog which often has interesting guest articles on it. This is how they describe the Brier score and how to use it for football

The Brier Score, as originally introduced in 1950, is a measure of the effectiveness of weather predictions.

Calculating the Brier Score

As probabilities implied by betting markets add up to more than 100%, we first adjust the odds pro-rata to determine the probabilities of each outcome for a match.

The Brier Score per match is the sum of the square difference of the probability and actual results. Let’s take the match Liverpool vs Crystal Palace on 8th November. Pinnacle Sports odds implied a 58.3% chance of Liverpool to win and a 24.5% chance of draw. The outcome was a Crystal Palace win at a predicted possibility of just 17.1%.

The probabilities for Win:Draw:Loss were 0.583:0.245:0.171 with the actual result being 0:0:1, where one stands for the actual outcome. The differences are 0.583:0.245:0.829. The sum of the square differences are 0.5832 + 0.2452 + 0.8292 = 1.0875. This is the Brier Score for this match.

The Brier score can range from 0, if odds guessed the outcome directly by stating there is 100% chance of only one outcome to be correct, to 2, if odds implied that one outcome is certain and that did not occur.

However, if we had to just throw outcomes at random and say that a home win, draw or away win are equally likely, then our Brier score would be 0.667, irrespective of the outcome. 

The table below shows the Brier score per team in the Premiership. What we note is that some of the surprises are actually vindicated in the stats: Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham are not performing as expected while for Arsenal and Manchester City it is business as usual.

You can see on the Pinnacle website how they applied this to check on individual teams and in a future blog we’ll apply it to different months in the football season.

Heat Map

A new page has been added to the site which is a heatmap. You can use the heatmap to see various stats. The home team is listed down the left hand side with the away team along the bottom. It has uses for stats betting. For example if you are betting on over/under goals or number of corners you can get a view of how a team has done over the season based on the colours. A darker colour means a higher number.

For example in the heatmap below that shows corners for the Premier League if you look at Manchester United at home all the numbers look pretty light indicating they consistently have low corner counts.

 

heatmap

 

Check it out for yourself and give us any feedback.

Corner odds user question and how they are calculated

This question was received this morning

 

Example Aston Villa vs Swansea for the Line 9,5 corners in Match. Your side says for under 9,5 the odds are 1,33. So when I get on bet365 under 9,5 1,83. there is a big value or is the 1,33 not the odd?


The screenshot of what he could see is below
question

 

The reply given was

 

Yes that is saying there is value. Aston Villa at home have had 14, 9, 9 and 8 corners and Swansea away have had 7,4,7 and 12 so that means 6/8 matches have been below 9.5 corners.

 

6/8 = 0.75 (75%)
1/0.75 = 1.33

 

Using the past games the price should be 1.33 but obviously there are lots of other factors to consider and it is not as simple as that. The price is just a guide to convert past results into a decimal price.

 

XC = Cross Corners

This is a question that gets asked more than any other on the site. Often emails are received asking what this means.

 

XC is cross corners which is the home corners x away corners. It’s a statistic that is used in spread betting and also some normal bookmakers offer odds.

 

For example on 13th September Leicester beat Aston Villa 3-2 and in that match Leicester had 4 corners and Aston Villa had 5 so cross corners would have been 4 x 5 = 20.

On the same day Everton beat Chelsea 3-1 and in that match Everton had 7 corners and Chelsea had 14 so cross corners was an enormous 98! (7 x 14)

The day before on 12th September Arsenal beat Stoke 2-0 and had 13 corners to Stoke’s 1 so in that cam cross corners was 13 x 1 = 13.

Allsvenskan added as a league and league tables tab

The Swedish Allsvenskan has been added today. Corner stats and normal stats as well. The season runs until late October so plenty of time to get up to speed.

 

Also have added a new feature so you can see the current league table for a league when you are viewing the console. In the image below you can see the tab pinned to the right hand side of the screen.

league table tab

 

 

Click on the tab and the league table will appear as below. Click again and it will go back to the starting position.

2league table tab

Are match stats any use?

Today some alerts were set up for twitter to send some tweets when certain stats are good. The reason why this has started is because on Monday night the Napoli v Genoa match has a strong BTTS (both teams to score) and home win stat. The is what was tweeted.

btts tweet

 

 

Late in the game Napoli bagged a late goal and won 2-1 landing this bet and the odds were 3.3 and no the 2.25 in the previous post. This particular stat was way higher than what you normally expect. Two teams who both had BBTS in plenty of matches but also Napoli winning those matches at home and Genoa losing them away.

 

Seemed like a good idea to add some checks in the database to look for other games like this. Did so and this one popped up today as well as an arse wipe reply.

arse wipe

 

None of these stats are recommendations to bet. There is no profit and loss on them but rather they are a way for people to see some strong stats they may or may not want to look into. If people don’t like it they really don’t have to look at them.

Dafabet odds on the site

Since pinnacle decided to stop offering odds to UK punters I have had to search for an alternative odds supplier. It was a case of looking at which bookmakers offered an odds feed that are reputable and offer decent prices.

The one chosen was dafabet and looking through the matches this weekend they are very competitive and are better priced than Pinnacle on a number of the Asian Handicap markets. This now means all users have Dafabet and 5Dimes prices and non-UK users also still have Pinnacle.

 

Dafabet are sponsors of Aston Villa which probably helped in their decision to stick in the UK market when a number of the other Asian firms pulled out. To open an account with Dafabet click here.

Site Abbreviations

From time to time I receive emails from people asking what various abbreviations mean on the site. It makes sense to make a blog post that lists them and which can be added to and referred to.

 

General Metrics

BTTS – Both teams to score. Bookmakers often offer markets based on both teams to score and combine it with other bets such as both teams to score and one team to win.

 

Corner Metrics

P – Played which is matches played.
F – For which is corners for the selected team.
A – Against which is corners against the selected team (corners they have conceded).
TOT – Total corners
XC – Cross corners which is home team corners x away team corners
HC – Home corners – corners for the home team
AC – Away corners – corners for the away team
TC – Total corners
CD – Corner difference which is home corners – away corners
Will add abbreviations to this any time they are requested.

Team stats page

Someone sent me an email asking how the team stats page works. I replied and also thought I may as well post here if anyone else needs to know.
If I look at the page for over 2.5 goals you see this as the top two rows
Date League Home (matches) Away (matches) Home Over % Away Over % Av % Eq. Odds
22nd Nov Eng Prem Everton (5) West Ham (5) 80.0% 100.0% 90.0% 1.11
22nd Nov Bel Jupiler Lokeren (8) Westerlo (8) 75.0% 87.5% 81.3% 1.23
After the name of the team you can see the number of matches so in this case we see Everton (5) and that means the 5 Everton home matches
H – A Date vs (current position) Res
1 Nov 14 Swansea (5) 0-0 +
18 Oct 14 Aston Villa (16) 3-0 +
21 Sep 14 Crystal Palace (17) 2-3 +
30 Aug 14 Chelsea (1) 3-6 +
23 Aug 14 Arsenal (6) 2-2 +

It only includes home games for the home team and away games for the away team.