All kicking off in Europe

The European leagues really start getting going this weekend, although a couple such as the Austrian Bundesliga are already underway. Just want to run through a few details about the site and what stats you can see and where.

Corner Console: This has stats for English Premier League, English Championship, English League One, English League Two, English Conference, Scottish Premier, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, Netherlands Eredivisie, Portugal Superliga, Greece Super League, Turkey Super Lig, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX, Argentina Primera, Germany Bundesliga 2, Denmark Superliga, Austria Bundesliga, Russia Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Sweden Allsvenskan and UEFA Europa League.

The leagues in bold also have corner stats by halves.

 

Main Console: All leagues feature in this but Belgium Jupiler League, France Ligue 2, Italy Serie B, Scottish Championship, Scottish League 1, Scottish League 2 and Spain La Segunda do not have card stats.

 

Mini Console: Does not have cards for the leagues as listed in the mini console and has corners for all the leagues listed in the corner console.

 

Team Stats: All leagues are featured in this but as listed above some leagues do not have full stats. Also stats for a league only appear once a team has played at both home and away.

 

Match Stats and Tweet Bets: All leagues appear in these pages.

 

Goal Times: English Premier League, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX and Argentina Primeraall appear on this page.

 

Half Time Scores: At present this has English Premier League, English Championship, English League One, English League Two ,English Conference, Scottish Premier, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera ,Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, Netherlands Eredivisie, Portugal Superliga, Greece Super League, Turkey Super Lig, Belgium Jupiler League, Germany Bundesliga 2, France Ligue 2, Italy Serie B, Scottish Championship, Scottish League 1, Scottish League 2 and Spain La Segunda.

 

Heatmap: This includes all leagues but like the team stats does not have all stats for all leagues. The full grid is shown below.

 

Lge Viz: All leagues

 

Player Times: English Premier League, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX and Argentina Primeraall appear on this page.

 

The grid below shows all the stats and which leagues include them.

LeagueCornersCorner HTCardsShots/Fouls/Offsides etc 
Argentina PrimeraYESYESYESYES
Australia A-LeagueNONOYESNO
Austria BundesligaYESNOYESYES
Belgium Jupiler LeagueNONONONO
Brazil Futebol BrasileiroYESYESYESYES
Denmark SuperligaYESNOYESYES
English ChampionshipYESNOYESYES
English ConferenceYESNOYESYES
English League OneYESNOYESYES
English League TwoYESNOYESYES
English Premier LeagueYESYESYESYES
UEFA Champions LeagueYESYESYESYES
UEFA Europa LeagueYESYESYESYES
France Ligue 1YESYESYESYES
France Ligue 2NONONONO
Germany BundesligaYESYESYESYES
Germany Bundesliga 2YESNOYESYES
Greece Super LeagueYESNOYESYES
Italy Serie AYESYESYESYES
Italy Serie BNONONONO
Mexico Liga MXYESYESYESYES
Netherlands EredivisieYESNOYESYES
Norway TippeligaenYESNOYESNO
Portugal SuperligaYESNOYESYES
Russia Premier LeagueYESNOYESYES
Scottish ChampionshipNONONONO
Scottish League 1NONONONO
Scottish League 2NONONONO
Scottish PremierYESNOYESYES
Spain La SegundaNONONONO
Spain PrimeraYESYESYESYES
Sweden AllsvenskanYESNOYESYES
Turkey Super LigYESNOYESYES
USA MLSYESYESYESYES

Brier Score to predict unpredictability

In the latest Betting Insiders magazine from The Betting School we wrote an article that included some testing of midweek fixtures using the Brier score. The idea for this came from the Pinnacle Betting Blog which often has interesting guest articles on it. This is how they describe the Brier score and how to use it for football

The Brier Score, as originally introduced in 1950, is a measure of the effectiveness of weather predictions.

Calculating the Brier Score

As probabilities implied by betting markets add up to more than 100%, we first adjust the odds pro-rata to determine the probabilities of each outcome for a match.

The Brier Score per match is the sum of the square difference of the probability and actual results. Let’s take the match Liverpool vs Crystal Palace on 8th November. Pinnacle Sports odds implied a 58.3% chance of Liverpool to win and a 24.5% chance of draw. The outcome was a Crystal Palace win at a predicted possibility of just 17.1%.

The probabilities for Win:Draw:Loss were 0.583:0.245:0.171 with the actual result being 0:0:1, where one stands for the actual outcome. The differences are 0.583:0.245:0.829. The sum of the square differences are 0.5832 + 0.2452 + 0.8292 = 1.0875. This is the Brier Score for this match.

The Brier score can range from 0, if odds guessed the outcome directly by stating there is 100% chance of only one outcome to be correct, to 2, if odds implied that one outcome is certain and that did not occur.

However, if we had to just throw outcomes at random and say that a home win, draw or away win are equally likely, then our Brier score would be 0.667, irrespective of the outcome. 

The table below shows the Brier score per team in the Premiership. What we note is that some of the surprises are actually vindicated in the stats: Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham are not performing as expected while for Arsenal and Manchester City it is business as usual.

You can see on the Pinnacle website how they applied this to check on individual teams and in a future blog we’ll apply it to different months in the football season.

Heat Map

A new page has been added to the site which is a heatmap. You can use the heatmap to see various stats. The home team is listed down the left hand side with the away team along the bottom. It has uses for stats betting. For example if you are betting on over/under goals or number of corners you can get a view of how a team has done over the season based on the colours. A darker colour means a higher number.

For example in the heatmap below that shows corners for the Premier League if you look at Manchester United at home all the numbers look pretty light indicating they consistently have low corner counts.

 

heatmap

 

Check it out for yourself and give us any feedback.

Corner odds user question and how they are calculated

This question was received this morning

 

Example Aston Villa vs Swansea for the Line 9,5 corners in Match. Your side says for under 9,5 the odds are 1,33. So when I get on bet365 under 9,5 1,83. there is a big value or is the 1,33 not the odd?


The screenshot of what he could see is below
question

 

The reply given was

 

Yes that is saying there is value. Aston Villa at home have had 14, 9, 9 and 8 corners and Swansea away have had 7,4,7 and 12 so that means 6/8 matches have been below 9.5 corners.

 

6/8 = 0.75 (75%)
1/0.75 = 1.33

 

Using the past games the price should be 1.33 but obviously there are lots of other factors to consider and it is not as simple as that. The price is just a guide to convert past results into a decimal price.

 

XC = Cross Corners

This is a question that gets asked more than any other on the site. Often emails are received asking what this means.

 

XC is cross corners which is the home corners x away corners. It’s a statistic that is used in spread betting and also some normal bookmakers offer odds.

 

For example on 13th September Leicester beat Aston Villa 3-2 and in that match Leicester had 4 corners and Aston Villa had 5 so cross corners would have been 4 x 5 = 20.

On the same day Everton beat Chelsea 3-1 and in that match Everton had 7 corners and Chelsea had 14 so cross corners was an enormous 98! (7 x 14)

The day before on 12th September Arsenal beat Stoke 2-0 and had 13 corners to Stoke’s 1 so in that cam cross corners was 13 x 1 = 13.