No games tomorrow as it’s Christmas Day but the madness of English football and the festive period starts on Boxing Day. We’ll keep the site up to date and Merry Christmas to our users from the Simple Soccer Stats team.
In the week we posted this about the Club World Championship and it took a late goal by Real Madrid to secure the 2 goal victory and therefore any stake on Real Madrid -2 on the Asian Handicap was returned.
They play again today and you have to go back 11 matches to the final in 2009 to find the last time a European team did not win by 2 goals or more. Since the change of format in 12 of the last 13 matches the European teams have shown the gulf in glass in this tournament and won by 2 goals or more. The price on the Asian Handicap for Real Madrid -2 is around 1.8 and really looks a solid bet based on that stat.
When betting on football one of the hardest things is riding the losing runs. There has been a lot written about that kind of thing and last year a few of us in the office read Trading Bases by Joe Peta which is a great story of a year betting on Baseball. It’s a very interesting read and talks about the ups and downs and nearly got some of us interested in baseball.
The reason we write this is because we have been following a system for a number of years and it really was struggling. We’ve written about it before and we call it Island Hopping and involves backing certain teams based on Islands in European Leagues. Things always change and you start doubting your ideas and second guessing yourself but handily we kept the stakes high and last Friday night were rewarded when Maritimo won at home to Benfica at a price of 10.0. Such an enormous price for a home winner and highlighted again to us the importance of discipline and belief. It’s a great system again!
This week and next weekend will be difficult ones to post on. Apologies for that and hopefully back to normal on 9th December.
Always nice to get to Friday and it’s a big weekend for football. Bet365 tweeted the big games and it is impressive
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
Dortmund vs Bayern
Man Utd vs Arsenal
Leeds vs Newcastle
Atlético vs Real
AC vs Inter
This weekend. 😍 pic.twitter.com/5LuC8mjrEo
— bet365 (@bet365) November 17, 2016
On the subject of twitter we send out stats on Twitter highlighting games that pass a certain threshold. We get some nice tweets in return but also sometimes just unhelpful stuff like
@simplesocstats Such a horrible way of pricing that market. Why?
— Agent of Truth (@AgentOfTruth) October 29, 2016
All the tweets we send are just advice and for users to check them out further. Sadly we don’t have prices for all the tweets we have sent but there have been 390 tweets for over/under 2.5 bets and we have prices for all of these. We took the average price from football-data.co.uk for these as that seemed a better guide of whether they can be profitable or not. Over the 390 bets the loss has been 3.32 points which really is less than a loss of 1% of the total stakes. Using best prices or just Betfair you’d assume a decent profit could be made.
So really when people day it’s a horrible way to price a market it’s not necessarily the case and worth looking into the results first.
There have been 13/21 winning bets this season for a profit of 0.93pts. If we were to use maximum price then the profit would increase to 1.95pts with each winning bet on average having an 0.08 improvement in profit. There have been 238 winning bets so if they all had an 0.05pt improvement, so less than the average we saw above, then it’s an 11.9pt increase in profit so it seems as if backing these blindly at good prices will produce a profit.
Will get a full list of these bets for next week.
No new stats this weekend as time got the better of us all here. A quick summary on the corner bets from last weekend.
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||13.75||12|
|22nd Oct||Eng Champ||Rotherham||Reading||13.04||13|
|23rd Oct||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||13||8|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||12.985||9|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||12.875||8|
|22nd Oct||Eng Prem||Bournemouth||Tottenham||12.815||11|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||12.71||18|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||12.39||14|
|23rd Oct||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||12.375||4|
|23rd Oct||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||12.375||10|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 1||Shrewsbury||Northampton||12.14||13|
Half of the 10 went 12 or more and half were 11 or under. Would have been interesting to know what the lines were for each of these matches. The 3 games not in England all went under and it could be worth looking into the historical English results to see how these sort of teams performed.
Stats back next weekend.
The Simple Weekend (Big corners this weekend?)
Bit of a corner theme of late and sticking on that this weekend. Decided to check out which teams that play each other have the highest corner averages. The table below looks at the average home team corners when playing at home plus average away corners playing away. So for Bradford v Sheffield Utd it’s the 8.1 corner average that Bradford have at home + the 6.6 corner average that Sheffield Utd have when playing away.
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||8.1||6.6||14.71|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||8.8||5.7||14.42|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||7||6.8||13.83|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||5.2||8.6||13.77|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||5.5||8||13.5|
|23rd||Fra Lig 1||Paris Saint Germain||Marseille||8.8||4.8||13.5|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||9.3||4||13.25|
|22nd||Swe Allsven||Malmo FF||Ostersunds||7.1||6.1||13.16|
|23rd||NL Eridvis||Groningen||AZ Alkmaar||7.4||5.8||13.15|
|23rd||Rus Prem||Lokomotiv Moscow||CSKA Moscow||7.8||5.3||13.04|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Sevilla||Atletico Madrid||8.3||4.8||13|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||8.8||4.3||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Chesterfield||Scunthorpe||7.1||5.7||12.86|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Portsmouth||Notts County||7.8||5||12.83|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||7||5.7||12.67|
|22nd||Brasileiro||Sao Paulo||AA Ponte Preta||8.3||4.3||12.6|
Looking again but this time seeing who has the highest total. So the total for Rotherham v Reading is the total corners when Rotherham play at home (16) plus the total corners when Reading play away (11.5)
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Shrewsbury||Northampton||12.1||14.1||13.14|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||13.5||12.7||13.08|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||15.5||10.5||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||14.2||11.3||12.75|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Crawley Town||Accrington||12.8||11.7||12.25|
|23rd||Scot Prem||St. Johnstone||Dundee||10.8||13.8||12.25|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||10||14.4||12.2|
|22nd||Spa Primera||Real Sociedad||Deportivo Alaves||10||14.3||12.13|
|23rd||Swe Allsven||IFK Norrkoping||Falkenbergs||11.5||12.5||11.98|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||12.5||11.3||11.92|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Grimsby||Cheltenham||11.3||12.5||11.92|
|22nd||Ita Serie A||AC Milan||Juventus||14||9.5||11.75|
|22nd||Eng Champ||Nottingham Forest||Cardiff||11||12.5||11.75|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Stevenage||Carlisle||10.7||12.7||11.67|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Exeter City||Cambridge||11.3||12||11.67|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Torino||Lazio||14||9.3||11.63|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Bologna||Sassuolo||9.3||14||11.63|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Oldham||Bristol Rovers||11.9||11.1||11.5|
Newport vs Plymouth features very highly in both tables. Out of interest if we take the average from both approaches the top 10 matches are:
|Date||League||Home||Away||Av 1||Av 2||Av|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||14.42||13.08||13.75|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||13||13||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||13.77||12.2||12.985|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||13.83||11.92||12.875|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||12.67||12.75||12.71|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||14.71||10.07||12.39|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||13.5||11.25||12.375|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||13.25||11.5||12.375|
We like corners at Simple Soccer Stats, which is why we have the corner console. If you put in the hard work there is definitely money to made on the corners. A couple of weeks back we pasted in a grid showing total corners counts for Premier League teams over the past 6 seasons and this week we’ll do them on a team by team basis.
First the home team corners so for Arsenal this shows the number of corners they have when they are at home.
Now the same for away so for Arsenal it shows the number of corners Arsenal have when they play away.
Interesting the contrast between the bigger clubs and the smaller ones and how consistent some clubs can be with corners, such as Chelsea at home. The Man United numbers are lower than you might expect for those seasons and they often had high lines in the past.
Anything else you’d like us to look into then drop us an email or get in touch via twitter or facebook.
There is no simple weekend this time round as it is dominated by dull international football. It will be back again next weekend.
In the heatmap you can see stats for the current season but an idea might be to show stats for season using the same grids to see how they have changed. For example the table below shows the number of corners each team has had at home in the Premier League since 2010-11
Only teams currently in the Premier League are included and it’s hard to get a decent read on the table and that is why the heatmap is so useful. Manchester City look to be a team with high counts and Manchester United one with low.