No games tomorrow as it’s Christmas Day but the madness of English football and the festive period starts on Boxing Day. We’ll keep the site up to date and Merry Christmas to our users from the Simple Soccer Stats team.
In the week we posted this about the Club World Championship and it took a late goal by Real Madrid to secure the 2 goal victory and therefore any stake on Real Madrid -2 on the Asian Handicap was returned.
They play again today and you have to go back 11 matches to the final in 2009 to find the last time a European team did not win by 2 goals or more. Since the change of format in 12 of the last 13 matches the European teams have shown the gulf in glass in this tournament and won by 2 goals or more. The price on the Asian Handicap for Real Madrid -2 is around 1.8 and really looks a solid bet based on that stat.
When betting on football one of the hardest things is riding the losing runs. There has been a lot written about that kind of thing and last year a few of us in the office read Trading Bases by Joe Peta which is a great story of a year betting on Baseball. It’s a very interesting read and talks about the ups and downs and nearly got some of us interested in baseball.
The reason we write this is because we have been following a system for a number of years and it really was struggling. We’ve written about it before and we call it Island Hopping and involves backing certain teams based on Islands in European Leagues. Things always change and you start doubting your ideas and second guessing yourself but handily we kept the stakes high and last Friday night were rewarded when Maritimo won at home to Benfica at a price of 10.0. Such an enormous price for a home winner and highlighted again to us the importance of discipline and belief. It’s a great system again!
This week and next weekend will be difficult ones to post on. Apologies for that and hopefully back to normal on 9th December.
Always nice to get to Friday and it’s a big weekend for football. Bet365 tweeted the big games and it is impressive
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
Dortmund vs Bayern
Man Utd vs Arsenal
Leeds vs Newcastle
Atlético vs Real
AC vs Inter
This weekend. 😍 pic.twitter.com/5LuC8mjrEo
— bet365 (@bet365) November 17, 2016
On the subject of twitter we send out stats on Twitter highlighting games that pass a certain threshold. We get some nice tweets in return but also sometimes just unhelpful stuff like
@simplesocstats Such a horrible way of pricing that market. Why?
— Agent of Truth (@AgentOfTruth) October 29, 2016
All the tweets we send are just advice and for users to check them out further. Sadly we don’t have prices for all the tweets we have sent but there have been 390 tweets for over/under 2.5 bets and we have prices for all of these. We took the average price from football-data.co.uk for these as that seemed a better guide of whether they can be profitable or not. Over the 390 bets the loss has been 3.32 points which really is less than a loss of 1% of the total stakes. Using best prices or just Betfair you’d assume a decent profit could be made.
So really when people day it’s a horrible way to price a market it’s not necessarily the case and worth looking into the results first.
There have been 13/21 winning bets this season for a profit of 0.93pts. If we were to use maximum price then the profit would increase to 1.95pts with each winning bet on average having an 0.08 improvement in profit. There have been 238 winning bets so if they all had an 0.05pt improvement, so less than the average we saw above, then it’s an 11.9pt increase in profit so it seems as if backing these blindly at good prices will produce a profit.
Will get a full list of these bets for next week.