Happy New Year and Happy London Derby too!

Hope everyone had a nice break and the office is back open here so we can deal with any issues or queries you have. Its Spurs v Chelsea tonight and we posted something a while back about the London derbies that is repeated below


The big match this weekend in the Premier League is the Saturday tea time clash between Arsenal and Chelsea. Whoever loses will feel the pressure as Liverpool have beaten both of these teams away so the loser will look like they can’t compete with the big boys.

The big 3 in London are Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal and they are building up a big rivalry as was seen in the game last season when Chelsea beat Spurs and presented the title to Leicester. These teams have all been there or thereabouts in the last 5 seasons aside from the Chelsea implosion last season as shown in the table below.

Season Arsenal Chelsea Spurs
2011-12 2 10 3
2012-13 3 1 5
2013-14 3 4 6
2014-15 4 3 5
2015-16 3 6 4

Finishing position of Arsenal Chelsea and Spurs in the last 5 seasons

There are have been 30 London derbies between these 3 teams in the last 5 seasons and there may be some patterns amongst the results.

Corners

The average (mean) corners is 10.7, the median is 11 and so is the mode. The full list of total corners is 16, 5, 11, 12, 11, 14, 11, 11, 12, 12, 10, 11, 7, 8, 9, 14, 9, 9, 8, 13, 8, 7, 4, 20, 15, 11, 13, 8, 13, 10.

Yellow Cards

The average (mean) yellow cars is 4.9 with the mode and median being 4. That crazy end of season game at Stamford Bridge had 12 yellows and the second highest total in these 5 seasons was 9 in Spurs other away game at Arsenal last season.

Goals

The full list of goals is 3, 8, 2, 7, 0, 0, 3, 6, 7, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 8, 3, 2, 2, 4, 4, 1, 0, 2, 2 and here the median and mode are both 3 with the mean average 3.0. 12 of the matches have been draws, 13 home wins and just 5 away wins, an average of 1 per season.

Summary

So 3 goals, 11 corners and 4-5 yellow cards sounds pretty much bang on what the lines will be so nothing too far from the norm.

Tweeted stats for week ending 12th April

Realised that last week I included matches played on the Monday in the stats round up which is wrong so have started this weeks round up on Tuesday. Positive results and the over and under bets, which are the only ones we have prices for, have both been profitable. Come the end of the season I’ll do some analysis to compare the prices available against the implied odds to see if any games could be filtered out where the value was not that big.

 

Results summary here and last weeks results below

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
7-4Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 16/19 + Montpellier (a) 11/14 = 27/33 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.610-0Win0.610.61
8-4Under 2.5 Today - Granada (h) 11/14 + Celta Vigo (a) 11/15 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.591-1Win0.591.2
8-4Over 2.5 Today - Raith Rovers (h) 14/16 + Cowdenbeath (a) 12/16 = 26/32 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.631-3Win0.631.83
10-4Under 2.5 Today - Crucero del Norte (h) 4/4 + Atletico Rafaela (a) 3/4 = 7/8 (88%) - implied odds of 1.1401-1Win01.83
10-4Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 11/12 + Sydney FC (a) 6/11 = 17/23 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3700-3Win01.83
10-4BTTS + win Today - FC Dallas (h) 13/22 + Colorado (a) 8/19 = 21/41 (51%) - implied odds of 1.9800-4Lost01.83
11-4BTTS Today - San Lorenzo (h) 2/4 + Independiente (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost01.83
11-4Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 18/20 + Tranmere (a) 13/20 = 31/40 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.61-0Win0.62.43
11-4Over 2.5 Today - San Lorenzo (h) 3/4 + Independiente (a) 3/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost02.43
11-4Over 2.5 Today - Bayern Munich (h) 10/17 + Eintracht Frankfurt (a) 11/13 = 21/30 (72%) - implied odds of 1.391.343-0Win0.362.79
11-4Win HT/FT Today - Racing Club (h) 3/4 + Huracan (a) 2/4 = 5/8 (63%) - implied odds of 1.6002-0Lost02.79
11-4BTTS + win Today - Racing Club (h) 2/4 + Huracan (a) 2/4 = 4/8 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0002-0Lost02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Boca Juniors (h) 2/4 + Nueva Chicago (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Groningen (h) 9/14 + Cambuur (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3303-2Win02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Argentinos Juniors (h) 2/4 + River Plate (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-2Win02.79
12-4Under 2.5 Today - Torino (h) 11/14 + Roma (a) 13/17 = 24/31 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.61-1Win0.63.39
12-4BTTS + win Today - Boca Juniors (h) 2/4 + Nueva Chicago (a) 2/4 = 4/8 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0000-0Lost03.39

Tweeted stats for week ending 6th April

9/12 bets were winners. Full results are shown here  and it would be interesting to know prices of some of the other bets such as Win HT/FT based on the success.

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
2-4Under 2.5 Today - US Avellino (h) 12/17 + Modena (a) 13/16 = 25/33 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.521-0Win0.520.52
3-4BTTS Today - Sarmiento de Junín (h) 4/4 + Belgrano de Cordoba (a) 6/12 = 10/16 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-3Win00.52
3-4Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 15/18 + Saint Etienne (a) 11/15 = 26/33 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.451-1Win0.450.97
3-4Over 2.5 Today - Sarmiento de Junín (h) 4/4 + Belgrano de Cordoba (a) 8/12 = 12/16 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2001-3Win00.97
3-4Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 14/19 + Bristol City (a) 13/19 = 27/38 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.921-1Lost-1-0.03
4-4Over 2.5 Today - Dordrecht (h) 9/14 + Heracles Almelo (a) 11/14 = 20/28 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.642-3Win0.640.61
4-4Over 2.5 Today - Leon (h) 10/13 + Queretaro (a) 9/14 = 19/27 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4204-5Win00.61
5-4BTTS Today - Bursaspor (h) 9/12 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 11/13 = 20/25 (80%) - implied odds of 1.2503-0Lost00.61
5-4Over 2.5 Today - Galatasaray (h) 12/15 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 8/12 = 20/27 (73%) - implied odds of 1.361.694-2Win0.691.3
6-4BTTS Today - Dartford (h) 17/20 + Barnet (a) 15/21 = 32/41 (78%) - implied odds of 1.2800-1Lost01.3
6-4Under 2.5 Today - Brondby (h) 9/11 + FC Copenhagen (a) 9/10 = 18/21 (86%) - implied odds of 1.1600-0Win01.3
6-4Over 2.5 Today - Brentford (h) 14/20 + Nottingham Forest (a) 15/20 = 29/40 (73%) - implied odds of 1.381.652-2Win0.651.95

Tweeted stats for week ending 29th March

A short week but a winning one. All 6 bets were winners.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
24-3Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 13/18 + Rochdale (a) 14/18 = 27/36 (75%) - implied odds of 1.331.963-0Win0.960.96
28-3BTTS Today - Perth Glory (h) 10/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 7/11 = 17/22 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2903-2Win00.96
28-3BTTS Today - Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (h) 9/12 + Independiente (a) 9/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-2Win00.96
28-3Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 10/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 6/11 = 16/22 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3803-2Win00.96
28-3Over 2.5 Today - Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (h) 9/12 + Independiente (a) 8/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4102-2Win00.96
28-3BTTS + win Today - Perth Glory (h) 5/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 5/11 = 10/22 (45%) - implied odds of 2.2003-2Win00.96

 

 

WC2014 day 32 – The morning after

Yesterdays results

NONE

Results not added

09.07.2014 – Netherlands v Argentina – DRAW @ 3.21 with Pinnacle WON +2.21

5/26 :: -9.19

I have been on the move the last few days and was unable to add to this. The final and 3rd/4th place playoff would have been draw selections I am pretty sure so they would have meant another points profit but overall disappointing. I’ll sum up properly in a few days and give the plans for the upcoming season.

World Cup Stats on the site

On the site we have:

Historical World Cup Stats – Going back to 1978 you can see stats for goals, cards, corners etc. You can see the percentages of matches that ended in draws amongst other stats. The stats can be filtered by year, round and even by continent of the teams playing.

Team Stats – The show the stats for each team during qualification and shows goals, shots, cards, fouls and corners.

Full console – This shows teams matches going back to 2010 and all the stats available for them. Historical data was very hard to find but the qualification data is accurate.

Blog articles – There are articles about the top goalscorer market, evidence that European teams don’t struggle as much as people say and also a look at how teams in the Brazilian league perform in the hotter Northern cities.

Extra article added on how teams perform when winning their first group match.

Any questions or comments then get in touch via email or  on Twitter.

Corner Bets 07.04.2013 ROUNDUP

Tottenham v Sunderland: Most First Half Corners – Sunderland @ 4.5 with Paddy Power (1pt) LOST-1

Levante v Athletic Bilbao: Race to 3 – Levante @ 2.25 with Bet365 (1pt) LOST -1

A very bad weekend for the corner bets. Those 2 losers bring the figures to

29 bets – 11 winners -7.54

It’s not pretty and I’m going to take a break from these and it could be all for the season. I won’t have the time for the next 2 weekends and as it gets later in the season the games get more random. Any spare time I have will be spent preparing for the world cup.

Not pleased with how these ave turned out as it has undone the good work I did with the Champions League (8 winners from 13 bets and a +7.12) earlier in the season. The only other selections I posted were for top goalscorer earlier in the season and these are likely to be losers unless Lukaku or Giroud score about 4 or 5 goals in their remaining matches.

New look website

Over the last few weeks a lot of work has gone into the new look website. Sometimes with changes like this there can be the odd glitch but I am hopeful there will not be many.

Some of the old pages have changed the url slightly but there is automatic redirection in place that should bring you to the new version of the page. If you see a page where this does not work or any other issues please do get in contact with me so I can fix them.

If anything goes disastrously wrong the old website is available here http://old.simplesoccerstats.com/ but the data in the old console section will be out of date for it.

Now the re-design is out of the way I can look at preparing data for the World Cup 2014.

Corner Bets 05.04.2014 ROUNDUP

In betting one of the key ingredients is a bit of luck and it was lacking this weekend. Bologna were level with Inter at 2-2 on corners but Inter got the 5th and Bologna the 6th.  Cagliari had 4 of the first 5 corners against Roma but unfortunately not the first and Valladolid had 9 corners to Valencia’s 4 but not the first. Always a pain to have weekends like that but all the bets look to have been good and there are more chances to make this back.

Inter Milan v Bologna: Race to 3 – Bologna @ 4 with Bet365 (1pt) Lost -1

Cardiff v Crystal Palace: Most Corners 1st Half – Cardiff @ 1.83 with WH, Bwin or PP (1.8) (1pt) WON +0.83

Cagliari v Roma: First Corner – Cagliari @ 2.1 with Bet365 and PP or 2.2 with Bwin Lost -1

Valladolid v Valencia: First Corner Valladolid @ 1.83 with Stan James and Bwin or 1.8 with Bet365 (1pt) Lost -1

27 bets – 11 winners -5.54

Site update

At the moment lots of work is happening on a new layout for the site and cleaner data. There have been a lot of improvements of late and it now makes sense to make more and get everything more consistent.

This is the reason why there were no corner bets last weekend, but that is not much of a loss based on the current results. The new site will have Pinnacle odds for all the matches so you can see them as you view them and as Pinnacle now offer corner odds these will be included soon.

The idea is to have this finished by the end of the month and then it will be time to begin the World Cup preparations. If there is anything you would like to see in these improvements let us know.