Well it’s been a while since I checked in as I have been too busy! Far busier than a lot of the clubs in the transfer market and it seems to be rumour after rumour. Barcelona have probably been as busy as me and not sure about Hleb but buying Dani Alves was a great move and the prospect of him and Messi teaming up down the right hand side is mouth watering. Even with my dislike for Barça I am excited about seeing rip teams to shreds.
Who else? In Spain Villareal look to have strengthened very quickly and will be interesting to see how they get on in the champions league. Ronaldo to Real Madrid is a boring saga and I think
In
No grasp on any other leagues really but I get the odd free £5 bet from Bet365 and now I am going to always put it on Inter Milan to win the champions league. Mourinho’s record is fantastic and I think he’ll do wonders there. I may advise that as a bet once I start getting more on the football.
The reason I have been so busy is that I have built a new interactive puzzle which launched today and is a mix of a crossword and sudoku so if either of those interests you then check out www.x-oku.com.
Time to start looking at some analysis for the upcoming season and I want to start with the top goalscorer market. I want to get something up in this as 3 of the top 4 in the betting (Ronaldo, Drogba and Adebayor) are linked to moves away.
Since the premier league was formed here are the winners and their stats.
Year | Golden Boot | Club | Goals | Team Position | Prev Season |
1992–93 | Teddy Sheringham | Notts Forest/Spurs | 22 | Eighth | 13 (1st Div) |
1993–94 | Andy Cole | Newcastle United | 34 | Third | 24 (1st Div) |
1994–95 | Alan Shearer | Blackburn | 34 | Winner | 31 |
1995–96 | Alan Shearer | Newcastle United | 31 | Second | 34 |
1996–97 | Alan Shearer | Newcastle United | 25 | Second | 31 |
1997–98 | Chris Sutton | Blackburn | 18 | Sixth | 11 |
1997–98 | Dion Dublin | Coventry | 18 | Eleventh | 13 |
1997–98 | Michael Owen | Liverpool | 18 | Third | 1 |
1998–99 | JF Hasselbaink | Leeds | 18 | Fourth | 16 |
1998–99 | Michael Owen | Liverpool | 18 | Seventh | 18 |
1998–99 | Dwight Yorke | Manchester United | 18 | Winner | 12 |
1999–2000 | Kevin Phillips | Sunderland | 18 | Seventh | 23 (First Div) |
2000–01 | JF Hasselbaink | Chelsea | 18 | Sixth | 24 (Spain) |
2001–02 | Thierry Henry | Arsenal | 24 | Winner | 17 |
2002–03 | Ruud van Nistelrooy | Manchester United | 25 | Winner | 23 |
2003–04 | Thierry Henry | Arsenal | 30 | Winner | 24 |
2004–05 | Thierry Henry | Arsenal | 25 | Second | 30 |
2005–06 | Thierry Henry | Arsenal | 27 | Fourth | 25 |
2006–07 | Didier Drogba | Chelsea | 20 | Second | 12 |
2007–08 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Manchester United | 31 | Winner | 17 |
So what can we see here? In 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 the top goalscorer was won with 18 goals and was shared three ways which slightly distorts the results. Alan Shearer (begrudgingly) and Henry deserve respect for winning it 3 teams consecutively!
No player has come from abroad and won it, aside from Hasselbaink but he had played in it before. 3 times players from the first division (championship) have come up and won it but none of the promoted teams have a potent striker.
I think the important thing to look at is the amount of goals a striker scored the season before. Michael Owen won a share of the prize in his first full season but aside from that every player had scored at least 11 goals the season before. If we drop the years when there was a 3 way tie in 12/14 cases the striker had scored at least 17 goals the season before. Sheringham and Drogba are the only two not to do this and I would argue that Sheringham was a unique player and had an out of the world start to 92/93 when he went to Man Utd. So if we look at strikers who scored at least 17 goals last season we have Ronaldo (31), Adebayor, Torres (both 24) and
I bet on Van Persie last season and if he can avoid injury problems he will be prolific but that’s a big if. Michael Owen is another unfortunate injury victim as if he has a decent run he can’t help but score. 22/1 to be the first player to score a hatrick in the season on Paddy Power looks an interesting novelty bet. Man Utd may end up with Tevez, Rooney, Ronaldo and Berbatov and it might be asking a bit much for one of them to do it.
The other player who interests me is John Carew. He scored 13 goals last season but missed a large chunk through injury and has had the time to acclimatise to the English game. 10 of his goals came in the new year. I’d be very happy as a Villa supporter with Marton O’Neill as my manager and I think they will have another good season.
I could go on and on but the two bets I want to advise are Carew and
I am continuing with the new development for the site and hope to have some positive changes for the start of the season.