For the first time this season I was able to spend part of Thursday night looking at games. As it’s so early in the season I just stuck to what I feel I know best.
I have managed to get the corner mini-console up and running now which is good news. You can see it by clicking Launch Beta MiniCon on the main menu or here.
Called a few of the games right in midweek but personally was let down by Watford. My friend the Bear once again reminded me to steer clear of the Championship as it can’t be trusted. Atletico Madrid looked very good in the Champions League and Aguero really is a fantastic player who scores freely. I think they could be improved this season and maybe they can launch some sort of title charge as well. Villareal drew at Old Trafford as they did the last time they met in the Champions League and that season United didn’t make it through the knockout stages and Villareal went on to the semis!
Onto this weekends games.
Liverpool v Stoke (English Premiership: Saturday 3pmBST)
Liverpool are rightly short-priced favourites for this game but searching round I think there is some value to be had. At Anfield last season they kept clean sheets in 9/19 matches and against the newly promoted teams they drew 0-0, won 6-0 and won 3-0. This season they have not kept a clean sheet in either of their first 2 games (both 2-1 wins against Man Utd and Middlesboro), but those are the only 2 goals they have conceded in 4 matches. Although Stoke have scored 7 goals in their 4 games so far, they have let in 10 and I can see Liverpool winning comfortably. I have a feeling that this could be Liverpool’s season and they have started very well. Boylesports offer 1.87 on Liverpool to win with a clean sheet and this price is just much too high, considering Bet365 offer 1.62 on the same bet. I am not sure how long this price will hold for so the alternative bet is for Liverpool to win by 2 or more goals. This is the bet I will use for the records.
++ Clean Sheet – Liverpool to win with a clean sheet @ 1.87 on Boyles (1pt)
or the alternative is
++ Winning Margin – Liverpool to win by 2 goals or more @ 1.7 on Bet365 (1pt)
Bolton used to be a bit of a hoodoo ground for Arsenal but they won their last time in the league as well as in the FA cup and I think they should win tomorrow and with a clean sheet as well. Bolton have only scored 4 goals this season and 3 of those were against Stoke, whereas Arsenal have let in just 1 in 4 matches. It’s just a bit too similar to the above bet which is why I’ll leave it. I think Bolton could go down this season.
Birmingham v Blackpool (English Championship: Saturday 3pmBST)
Birmingham have started the season very well with 16 of a possible 18 points. They should continue this against Blackpool and from the console the think that stuck out was that all Brum home and all Blackpool away games were under 2.5 goals. In fact taking all 12 games they have played 9/12 (75% = odds of 1.33) have been under 2.5 goals. The 1.91 offered by Skybet looks very generous for this but I will take a slightly more risky approach and take ½pt on 1-0 and 2-0 as Birmingham have kept clean sheets in all home games so far and Blackpool have managed only 4 goals in 6 matches this season.
++ Correct Score – 1-0 and 2-0 @ 7 (both) on Betfred/Ladbrokes/Canbet (2 x ½pt = 1pt)
Barnet v Bury (English League Two: Saturday 3pmBST)
This is probably the best looking bet of the weekend. I checked the BBC website and although Barnet have a couple of players back to fitness it says ‘Bury manager Alan Knill has no new injury or suspension problems for the game at Underhill’. Barnet have managed just 1 point from their first 6 games, leaking 15 goals and scoring just 4. Bury on the other hand are unbeaten, winning 4/6 and scoring 11 goals. Bet365 offer 2.4 on them to win but I’ll take the Asian Handicap (AH) route. I really do love this bet and consider it the best bet in football. Having just 2 outcomes means the bookies overround is lower and gives you a little safety net. They offer Bury (0, -0.5) which means a draw returns half the stake but a win and we win. Pinnacle offer 2.07 on this and Canbet 2.08 but for the records I’ll take Bet365 at 2.05
++ Asian Handicap – Bury (0, -0.5) @ 2.05 on Bet365 (Ladbrokes 2.04) (1pt)
Bradford v Bournemouth (English League Two: Saturday 3pmBST)
There are 3 games in England this weekend where both teams begin with the letter ‘B’ and looks like I am betting on all of them. Bradford got our season off to winning start last weekend and with them entertaining a Bournemouth side with 3 draws and 3 losses in their first 6 games you would expect them to win again. Bradford/Bradford HT/FT looks good value at 2.63 on Skybet and I was tempted by ½pt on that but will stick to the AH again and go a full point. Bradford (-0.5, -1) is priced at 1.88 on Pinnacle, 1.85 on VC and 1.825 on Bet365 and it looks good value. A win for Bradford and we record a profit and a win by more than 1 goal and we take the lot. 4/5 Bradford victories have been by more than 1 goal and as Bournemouth average 0.67 goals per game and Bradford 2.33 we should be close.
++ Asian Handicap – Bradford (-0.5, -1) @ 1.825 on Bet365 (VC 1.85/Ladbrokes 1.82) (1pt)
4 points staked on the weekend and I will look through the corners in a bit and see if there is anything of interest there. If there is I will add it up later this evening and also check through the available prices for the above bets to check they still hold.
Good luck in whatever bets you do.
