The Simple Weekend (Time off)

The Simple Weekend will be a regular feature but there are no stats to add today as we are in holiday mode at the moment. People away and a long bank holiday ahead.

Last weekend there were 3 away wins on the opening day in Spain with Leganes winning at 4.89 and Las Palmas at 4.84. Overall a loss of -0.53 backing them all but if we ignored the 2 Madrid teams and Barcelona then it would have been a solid 1.73 profit on the 3 matches.

Good luck this weekend.

The Simple Weekend (La Liga Opening Day Stats)

Last weekend the opening day Premier League stats pointed towards laying home teams and there were just 3 home wins at prices of 4.17, 1.25 and 1.64. Swansea (3.10), West Brom (4.16), Liverpool (3.04) and Man United (1.86) all won away and a 2.16 point profit would have been achieved backig all those.

La Liga starts this weekend and in the table below we can see the same stats as for the Premier League last weekend and the odds for these are the average odds taken from football-data.co.uk.

SeasonHDAH P/LD P/LA P/LBTTS YesBTTS No
2008-095235.1-3.60.555
2009-107213.9-3.5-6.537
2010-11334-3.41-1.737
2011-12433-3.21-2.255
2012-13523-1-0.80.764
2013-14514-2.3-6.81.764
2014-156312.20.7-7.946
2015-16253-6.99.4-1.737
Total372122-5.5-2.4-17.13545

The home teams dominate in Spain and the away teams have really struggled so backing the away team would not have been a good strategy. Last seasons opening day had 7 of the 10 games with 1 goal or less but that is not normal. In terms of BTTS there isn’t much of a pattern.

However, Spain has two massive giants in Real Madrid and Barcelona and removing those two, as well as Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, who have probably been the most consistent of the rest in those years we get completely different results.

SeasonHDAH P/LD P/LA P/L
2008-09213-2.4-2.84.5
2009-10321-0.10.5-2.5
2010-11222-0.90.5-0.9
2011-12222-2.51.20.5
2012-13330.2-64.7
2013-14313-1.5-3.82.2
2014-154114.1-2.8-3.9
2015-16132-4.13.90.8
Total201217-7.3-9.25.4

As you can see above again it’s not the away teams that are worth backing and aside from 2009/10 there have been at least 2 away wins in the remaining 6 or 7 matches.

Secret Betting Club New Season Football Compendium

We have promoted the Secret Betting Club in the past because they can be trusted and are a good barrier between punters and dodgy tipsters. They can help you avoid bad tipsters and point you in the direction of the good ones. This summer they have launched a football compendium.

New Season Football Compendium

They aim to help readers make the most of their tipping this year and they are well worth looking into. They rank their top 25 tipsters so you can see who are the ones to follow and who to avoid. There is also a video, shown below, that explains more about it.

The Simple Weekend (Premier League Opening Day Stats)

Not been away long and transfer rumours still flying around but the Premier League is back. Often get the odd opening day shock, or so it seems at the time, and West Ham won at Arsenal (odds of 10.75) last season and Swansea won at Old Trafford (odds of 9.32) the season before to kick off Moyes reign. The odds for these are the average odds taken from football-data.co.uk. The table below shows stats for the opening day.

 

SeasonHDAH P/LD P/LA P/LBTTS YesBTTS No
2008-097123.9-5-4.573
2009-10406-2.6-108.337
2010-11541-0.43-5.537
2011-12153-7.78.5-0.845
2012-136226-2.3-4.737
2013-14415-4.2-6.7837
2014-15226-7.4-3.411.764
2015-16235-6.41.711.655
Total311830-18.9-14.224.13445

Lots of away wins in the last few seasons and away wins by far and away the most profitable and even without the 2 big wins listed above the last 2 season would have been profitable without it. Could be that the bigger teams give their players longer breaks in those summers with big tournaments and they come back a bit rusty.

In the last 5 seasons backing the draw and the away team would have given 23.5 points profit, although a 6.9 point loss in 2012-13. Laying the home team could be the sensible option? All these are all to average prices so better odds can be achieved.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) seems to show no pattern at all.

Good luck at the weekend.

Tweeted Stats Round Up (April – July 2016)

44 selections over these 4 months and not good results. At the end of the season the over and under bets did not do well. The summary of results is shown below and the full list is on the tweeted bets page.

For a number of leagues such as MLS and Brasileiro we have not had prices previously. From September we will switch from using football-data prices and use the prices collected from the bookmakers displayed on the site. We suspect if we had had these prices since April then the results would look much better. There have been 21 tweeted bets from April to July without prices and 14 of them have been winners.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Apr-16Over 2.585-3.1862%-3.18
Apr-16Under 2.554-1.2756%-4.45
May-16Over 2.5420.8367%-3.62
May-16Under 2.533-1.9450%-5.56
Jun-16Over 2.5100100%-5.56
Jul-16Over 2.5530%63-5.56
Jul-16Under 2.5010%0-5.56

All kicking off in Europe

The European leagues really start getting going this weekend, although a couple such as the Austrian Bundesliga are already underway. Just want to run through a few details about the site and what stats you can see and where.

Corner Console: This has stats for English Premier League, English Championship, English League One, English League Two, English Conference, Scottish Premier, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, Netherlands Eredivisie, Portugal Superliga, Greece Super League, Turkey Super Lig, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX, Argentina Primera, Germany Bundesliga 2, Denmark Superliga, Austria Bundesliga, Russia Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Sweden Allsvenskan and UEFA Europa League.

The leagues in bold also have corner stats by halves.

 

Main Console: All leagues feature in this but Belgium Jupiler League, France Ligue 2, Italy Serie B, Scottish Championship, Scottish League 1, Scottish League 2 and Spain La Segunda do not have card stats.

 

Mini Console: Does not have cards for the leagues as listed in the mini console and has corners for all the leagues listed in the corner console.

 

Team Stats: All leagues are featured in this but as listed above some leagues do not have full stats. Also stats for a league only appear once a team has played at both home and away.

 

Match Stats and Tweet Bets: All leagues appear in these pages.

 

Goal Times: English Premier League, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX and Argentina Primeraall appear on this page.

 

Half Time Scores: At present this has English Premier League, English Championship, English League One, English League Two ,English Conference, Scottish Premier, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera ,Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, Netherlands Eredivisie, Portugal Superliga, Greece Super League, Turkey Super Lig, Belgium Jupiler League, Germany Bundesliga 2, France Ligue 2, Italy Serie B, Scottish Championship, Scottish League 1, Scottish League 2 and Spain La Segunda.

 

Heatmap: This includes all leagues but like the team stats does not have all stats for all leagues. The full grid is shown below.

 

Lge Viz: All leagues

 

Player Times: English Premier League, Germany Bundesliga, Spain Primera, Italy Serie A, France Ligue 1, USA MLS, Brazil Futebol Brasileiro, Mexico Liga MX and Argentina Primeraall appear on this page.

 

The grid below shows all the stats and which leagues include them.

LeagueCornersCorner HTCardsShots/Fouls/Offsides etc 
Argentina PrimeraYESYESYESYES
Australia A-LeagueNONOYESNO
Austria BundesligaYESNOYESYES
Belgium Jupiler LeagueNONONONO
Brazil Futebol BrasileiroYESYESYESYES
Denmark SuperligaYESNOYESYES
English ChampionshipYESNOYESYES
English ConferenceYESNOYESYES
English League OneYESNOYESYES
English League TwoYESNOYESYES
English Premier LeagueYESYESYESYES
UEFA Champions LeagueYESYESYESYES
UEFA Europa LeagueYESYESYESYES
France Ligue 1YESYESYESYES
France Ligue 2NONONONO
Germany BundesligaYESYESYESYES
Germany Bundesliga 2YESNOYESYES
Greece Super LeagueYESNOYESYES
Italy Serie AYESYESYESYES
Italy Serie BNONONONO
Mexico Liga MXYESYESYESYES
Netherlands EredivisieYESNOYESYES
Norway TippeligaenYESNOYESNO
Portugal SuperligaYESNOYESYES
Russia Premier LeagueYESNOYESYES
Scottish ChampionshipNONONONO
Scottish League 1NONONONO
Scottish League 2NONONONO
Scottish PremierYESNOYESYES
Spain La SegundaNONONONO
Spain PrimeraYESYESYESYES
Sweden AllsvenskanYESNOYESYES
Turkey Super LigYESNOYESYES
USA MLSYESYESYESYES

Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer Roundups

A small profit on these bets as Bale came up trumps. A reminder of the bets placed, not good when you see Dzyba and De Bruyne is below.

Top Goalscorer Choice (e/w at ¼ odds on 4 places) – Artyom Dzyba (currently 80/1), Kevin De Bruyne (currently 40/1) and Gareth Bale (currently 50/1) – All 1/4pt e/w

bale

Griezmann was the clear winner with 6 goals and Bale tied with Nani, Ronaldo (both Portugal), Payet, Giroud (both France) and Morata. The each way part of the bet was a winner but split as there were 7 places. A £10 e/w bet should have returned £47.50 profit (£67.50 – (2 x £10)).

The stakes were 1/4pt e/w so 1.5 points staked overall and the profit was 0.19pts.

Spanish Segunda Playoffs

This is from the post last year on the blog

The prize of getting in La Primera is massive for the clubs in Spain so you get some very cagey matches. There is not a massive amount of data here as this has only been going for 4 seasons. It follows a similar format as the English playoffs and there are 2 semi-finals and a final but each tie is 2 legs including the final. The first leg, of the final and semi final, is the one to concentrate on as in all 12 first leg matches no team has scored more than 1 goal. 9 of the 12 matches have been under 1.5 goals and there have been four 0-0s, five 1-0s (3 to the home team and 2 to the away) and three 1-1 draws. The home team has won just 3 of the 12 matches.

Last year the mould was completely broken as Zaragoza and Girona played out a ludicrous opening set of matches and I would expect them to revert back to type this year. The table below shows all the matches

YearRoundTeam 1Agg.Team 21st leg2nd leg
10/11SFCelta de Vigo1–1 (4–5 p)Granada1–00–1 (a.e.t.)
10/11SFValladolid2–3Elche1–01–3
10/11FinalGranada1–1 (a)Elche0–01–1
11/12SFHércules1–1 (a)Alcorcón1–10–0
11/12SFCórdoba0–3Valladolid0–00–3
11/12FinalAlcorcón1–2Valladolid0–11–1
12/13SFAlcorcón2–4Girona1–11–3
12/13SFLas Palmas2–3Almería1–11–2 (aet)
12/13FinalGirona0–4Almería0–10–3
13/14SFLas Palmas2-0Sporting Gijon1–01-0
13/14SFCordoba2-1Murcia0–02-1
13/14FinalCordoba1–1 (a)Las Palmas0–01–1
14/15SFValladolid1-1 (a)Las Palmas1-10-0
14/15SFZaragoza4-4 (h)Girona0-31-4
14/15FinalZaragoza3-3 (a)Las Palmas3-12-0

The updated stats are:

In all 18 first leg matches just twice has a team scored more than 1 goal. 9 of the 15 matches have been under 1.5 goals and there have been four 0-0s, five 1-0s (3 to the home team and 2 to the away) and three 1-1 draws. The home team has won just 4 of the 15 matches and only scored more than 1 goal once.

These matches are played on 8th and 9th June so will wait for more prices to come up and look for an under 2 goals double.

 

Europa League Round Up and it’s another winner

Sevilla win! An 8pt profit on the tournament.

Europa 2016

A summary of the bets

Sevilla 13.0 generally (15.0 with Corals) 1pt  WINNERS +12

Villarreal 26.0 generally 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT SF -1

Fiorentina 26.0 generally 1pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32 -2

Sporting Lisbon 41.0 generally (51.0 with Bet365) 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32 -1

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final

 

Won last year with Sevilla and again this year. Villarreal made the semis as well and until someone topples the Spanish clubs they really are too big price wise for this. Dortmund were such a strong favourite it didn’t make sense.

More again on this next year.