The Simple Weekend (London Clubs)

The big match this weekend in the Premier League is the Saturday tea time clash between Arsenal and Chelsea. Whoever loses will feel the pressure as Liverpool have beaten both of these teams away so the loser will look like they can’t compete with the big boys.

The big 3 in London are Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal and they are building up a big rivalry as was seen in the game last season when Chelsea beat Spurs and presented the title to Leicester. These teams have all been there or thereabouts in the last 5 seasons aside from the Chelsea implosion last season as shown in the table below.

Season Arsenal Chelsea Spurs
2011-12 2 10 3
2012-13 3 1 5
2013-14 3 4 6
2014-15 4 3 5
2015-16 3 6 4

Finishing position of Arsenal Chelsea and Spurs in the last 5 seasons

There are have been 30 London derbies between these 3 teams in the last 5 seasons and there may be some patterns amongst the results.

Corners

The average (mean) corners is 10.7, the median is 11 and so is the mode. The full list of total corners is 16, 5, 11, 12, 11, 14, 11, 11, 12, 12, 10, 11, 7, 8, 9, 14, 9, 9, 8, 13, 8, 7, 4, 20, 15, 11, 13, 8, 13, 10.

Yellow Cards

The average (mean) yellow cars is 4.9 with the mode and median being 4. That crazy end of season game at Stamford Bridge had 12 yellows and the second highest total in these 5 seasons was 9 in Spurs other away game at Arsenal last season.

Goals

The full list of goals is 3, 8, 2, 7, 0, 0, 3, 6, 7, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 8, 3, 2, 2, 4, 4, 1, 0, 2, 2 and here the median and mode are both 3 with the mean average 3.0. 12 of the matches have been draws, 13 home wins and just 5 away wins, an average of 1 per season.

Summary

So 3 goals, 11 corners and 4-5 yellow cards sounds pretty much bang on what the lines will be so nothing too far from the norm.

There are lots of great offers around this weekend such as Sky Sports Betting so make sure you check the options. You can see the full stats in the main or corner consoles.

The Simple Midweek (Atletico v Barca)

Slipping this one in as did some research on Barcelona hosting Atletico Madrid in the late evening partidazo. Can’t beat a game of football that starts at 10pm local time on a Wednesday night.

2011-12 was the last time that the top 3 places in Spain weren’t filled by Atleti, Real Madrid and Barcelona and it’s likely this dominance will continue this season as it is hard to see any team that can build a sustained challenge. Sevilla and Villarreal have both changed coaches and time will tell if they are both downgrades.

In the last 4 seasons there have been 6 matches each season between these big 3 which gives us 24 matches and worth seeing if any patterns have emerged in those games.

Corners

Looking at the number of corners in these 24 matches the values are 9, 7, 14, 5, 4, 5, 12, 6, 10, 13, 7, 9, 11, 17, 5, 4, 12, 8, 7, 7, 14, 14, 6, 11

The average (mean) corners is 9.0, the median is 8.5 and the mode is 7.

Yellow Cards

Average (mean) of 6.75 yellows with the mode and median being 7 cards. The full numbers were 6, 6, 2, 10, 8, 3, 9, 7, 5, 5, 7, 8, 8, 11, 7, 9, 6, 11, 5, 7, 3, 5, 10, 4

Goals

3 goals is the mean, mode and median average for all these games. 15/24 matches have had 3 or 4 goals. Total numbers were 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 7, 4, 0, 3, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 1, 3, 4, 2, 3.

You can see the full stats in the main or corner consoles.

The Simple Weekend (Who scores first in the Bundesliga)

The weekend kicked off with a bang with the Premier League clash at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea lost 2-1 to Liverpool and it’s tough getting used to it all starting so early.

Last week we looked at how the outcome of a match is affected by which team scores first in the Premier League. This weekend we have some stats for the Bundesliga for the last 3 seasons.

One thing I noticed was that in the season 2013-14 there were just 13 0-0 draws in the Bundesliga which is so low. It doubled the season after and last season was at 24 in 306 games.

Which team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome 1st0-0Away 1st
2014-1530656%9%35%
2015-1630650%8%42%
Total61253%8%39%

The home team scored first in 56% of games in 2014-15 and this dropped to 50% last season. There was a big difference in the away teams with them scoring first in 35% of the games in 2014-15 and this increasing to 42% in 2015-16

What happens when the home team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2014-1517175%17%8%
2015-1615270%18%12%
Total32373%17%10%

When the home team scores first they go on to win over 70% of the matches and the away team comes back to win in around 10% (8% in 2014-15 and 12% in 2015-16). Around 17% of the games end up draws.

What happens when the away team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2014-1510716%23%61%
2015-1613022%15%63%
Total23721%19%60%

When the away team scores first we have big changes over the two seasons. The home team came back in 16% of matches in 2014-15 and 22% last season. In seasons the away team went on to win in over 60% of the matches.

What all this does not take into account is when the goal is scored in the game which could be worth looking into in more depth.

The Simple Weekend (Who scores first)

Good to see the full programme back this weekend and big start to Saturday with the Manchester derby which has had a serious upgrade this season and Pep v Ibra is a good matchup.

Got an email recently that said

I wonder if you have any stats on first goal scored in a game:

or

Anything thing relating to who scored the 1st goal ? AND HOW IT EFFECTS THE FINAL OUTCOME / RESULT

Not something we have looked at before and should have some data for this from the top leagues in Europe but this week we’ll just look at the Premier League.  First step is to see which team scores first in the Premier League.

SeasonMatchesHome 1st0-0Away 1st
2012-1338051%9%39%
2013-1438054%7%39%
2014-1538054%8%37%
2015-1638052%8%40%
Total152053%8%39%

As you can see the home team scores first in around half the matches and the away team in about 4/10 and a little less than 1/10 matches ends 0-0.

What happens when the home team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2012-1319569%20%11%
2013-1420576%15%10%
2014-1520773%18%9%
2015-1619671%19%9%
Total80372%18%10%

When the home team scores first in the past 4 seasons they have on average won 72% of the matches. What is interesting is that they have only drawn 18% of those matches and then lost 10% which is quite high based on the draw figure.

What happens when the away team scores first

SeasonMatchesHome WinDrawAway Win
2012-1315021%23%57%
2013-1414816%14%70%
2014-1514215%18%68%
2015-1615211%24%64%
Total59216%20%65%

When the away team scores first the home team only comes back to win the game 16% of the time. 20% of the matches end in a draw and the home team goes on to win the game around 2/3 of the time.

The Simple Weekend (Lge 1 & 2 and Conference Home Wins)

It’s the international break this weekend, which is always odd coming so quickly in the season. Some decent friendlies, such as Belgium v Spain and Italy v France yesterday.

Today there are plenty of matches being played even if the top tiers aren’t in action. The main console page has full stats for League One and League Two, who both have full programs, as well as the Conference. Some cracking goals get scored in those leagues such as this one last weekend by Jay Emmanuel-Thomas

Time to take a look at a few stats for those leagues and see if the number of home wins has changed over time and that’s shown in the table below

  Home Wins  Draws  Away Wins 
seasonL1L2ConfL1L2ConfL1L2Conf
08/0942.8%41.3%46%24.8%29.7%25.7%32.4%29%28.3
09/1047.3%43.7%43.9%27.5%25.5%25.7%25.2%30.8%30.4
10/1145.1%40.8%43.7%24.8%30.4%28.8%30.1%28.8%27.5
11/1241.8%44.6%42.2%29.9%25.2%25.9%28.3%30.3%31.9
12/1340.2%41.1%41.5%27%27.2%25.4%32.8%31.7%33.2
13/1444.2%37.5%48.4%25.7%31.3%23.7%30.1%31.2%27.9
14/1540.4%44.2%43.1%26.3%25.2%25%33.3%30.6%31.9
15/1642.9%38.9%42.6%25%25.5%25.5%32.1%35.5%31.9
Average43.1%41.5%43.9%26.4%27.5%25.7%30.5%31%30.4

Table showing % of home and away wins for League 1, League 2 and the Conference for the seasons 08/09 to 15/16

Looking at home wins these are pretty random with a range of 40.2% to 47.3% for League 1, 37.5% to 44.6% for League 2 and 41.5% to 48.4% for the conference. Home Advantage clearly still exists as has been proved by numerous studies over time. The draws seem to have a similar pattern as well.

The away wins is the one that looks like it could have a pattern with there being more away wins. If you look at the average value then in League One, League Two and the Conference 3 of the last 4 seasons have seen a bigger than average number of away wins.

Good luck for the weekend.

The Simple Weekend (Time off)

The Simple Weekend will be a regular feature but there are no stats to add today as we are in holiday mode at the moment. People away and a long bank holiday ahead.

Last weekend there were 3 away wins on the opening day in Spain with Leganes winning at 4.89 and Las Palmas at 4.84. Overall a loss of -0.53 backing them all but if we ignored the 2 Madrid teams and Barcelona then it would have been a solid 1.73 profit on the 3 matches.

Good luck this weekend.

The Simple Weekend (La Liga Opening Day Stats)

Last weekend the opening day Premier League stats pointed towards laying home teams and there were just 3 home wins at prices of 4.17, 1.25 and 1.64. Swansea (3.10), West Brom (4.16), Liverpool (3.04) and Man United (1.86) all won away and a 2.16 point profit would have been achieved backig all those.

La Liga starts this weekend and in the table below we can see the same stats as for the Premier League last weekend and the odds for these are the average odds taken from football-data.co.uk.

SeasonHDAH P/LD P/LA P/LBTTS YesBTTS No
2008-095235.1-3.60.555
2009-107213.9-3.5-6.537
2010-11334-3.41-1.737
2011-12433-3.21-2.255
2012-13523-1-0.80.764
2013-14514-2.3-6.81.764
2014-156312.20.7-7.946
2015-16253-6.99.4-1.737
Total372122-5.5-2.4-17.13545

The home teams dominate in Spain and the away teams have really struggled so backing the away team would not have been a good strategy. Last seasons opening day had 7 of the 10 games with 1 goal or less but that is not normal. In terms of BTTS there isn’t much of a pattern.

However, Spain has two massive giants in Real Madrid and Barcelona and removing those two, as well as Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, who have probably been the most consistent of the rest in those years we get completely different results.

SeasonHDAH P/LD P/LA P/L
2008-09213-2.4-2.84.5
2009-10321-0.10.5-2.5
2010-11222-0.90.5-0.9
2011-12222-2.51.20.5
2012-13330.2-64.7
2013-14313-1.5-3.82.2
2014-154114.1-2.8-3.9
2015-16132-4.13.90.8
Total201217-7.3-9.25.4

As you can see above again it’s not the away teams that are worth backing and aside from 2009/10 there have been at least 2 away wins in the remaining 6 or 7 matches.

Secret Betting Club New Season Football Compendium

We have promoted the Secret Betting Club in the past because they can be trusted and are a good barrier between punters and dodgy tipsters. They can help you avoid bad tipsters and point you in the direction of the good ones. This summer they have launched a football compendium.

New Season Football Compendium

They aim to help readers make the most of their tipping this year and they are well worth looking into. They rank their top 25 tipsters so you can see who are the ones to follow and who to avoid. There is also a video, shown below, that explains more about it.

The Simple Weekend (Premier League Opening Day Stats)

Not been away long and transfer rumours still flying around but the Premier League is back. Often get the odd opening day shock, or so it seems at the time, and West Ham won at Arsenal (odds of 10.75) last season and Swansea won at Old Trafford (odds of 9.32) the season before to kick off Moyes reign. The odds for these are the average odds taken from football-data.co.uk. The table below shows stats for the opening day.

 

SeasonHDAH P/LD P/LA P/LBTTS YesBTTS No
2008-097123.9-5-4.573
2009-10406-2.6-108.337
2010-11541-0.43-5.537
2011-12153-7.78.5-0.845
2012-136226-2.3-4.737
2013-14415-4.2-6.7837
2014-15226-7.4-3.411.764
2015-16235-6.41.711.655
Total311830-18.9-14.224.13445

Lots of away wins in the last few seasons and away wins by far and away the most profitable and even without the 2 big wins listed above the last 2 season would have been profitable without it. Could be that the bigger teams give their players longer breaks in those summers with big tournaments and they come back a bit rusty.

In the last 5 seasons backing the draw and the away team would have given 23.5 points profit, although a 6.9 point loss in 2012-13. Laying the home team could be the sensible option? All these are all to average prices so better odds can be achieved.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) seems to show no pattern at all.

Good luck at the weekend.

Tweeted Stats Round Up (April – July 2016)

44 selections over these 4 months and not good results. At the end of the season the over and under bets did not do well. The summary of results is shown below and the full list is on the tweeted bets page.

For a number of leagues such as MLS and Brasileiro we have not had prices previously. From September we will switch from using football-data prices and use the prices collected from the bookmakers displayed on the site. We suspect if we had had these prices since April then the results would look much better. There have been 21 tweeted bets from April to July without prices and 14 of them have been winners.

 

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Apr-16Over 2.585-3.1862%-3.18
Apr-16Under 2.554-1.2756%-4.45
May-16Over 2.5420.8367%-3.62
May-16Under 2.533-1.9450%-5.56
Jun-16Over 2.5100100%-5.56
Jul-16Over 2.5530%63-5.56
Jul-16Under 2.5010%0-5.56