Tweeted stats for week ending 17th May

Great week for the tweeted stats with 6/7 winning. The League Two playoff was a winner but don’t have the odds for that.

 

Monaco

 

Monaco were a very big price for under 2.5 and you would expect more goals at this time of the season but luckily not in the games selected. The full results can be seen here and the last weeks results are below.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
11-5Under 2.5 Today - Karlsruher SC (h) 11/15 + SV Darmstadt 98 (a) 12/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.301.590-1Win0.590.59
13-5BTTS + win Today - Trabzonspor (h) 9/15 + Bursaspor (a) 5/15 = 14/30 (47%) - implied odds of 2.1401-0Lost00.59
14-5Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 21/23 + Stevenage (a) 14/23 = 35/46 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3101-1Win00.59
16-5BTTS Today - Varese (h) 15/20 + Pescara (a) 15/20 = 30/40 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-1Win00.59
16-5Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 19/23 + Metz (a) 13/18 = 32/41 (77%) - implied odds of 1.292.012-0Win1.011.6
16-5Under 2.5 Today - Virtus Entella (h) 15/20 + Latina (a) 16/20 = 31/40 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.672-0Win0.672.27
17-5Under 2.5 Today - Torino (h) 13/17 + Chievo (a) 14/17 = 27/34 (79%) - implied odds of 1.261.772-0Win0.773.04

 

 

 

Europa League round up

On 15th February there were recommendations for the Europa League outrights which were

 

Villarreal @ 20/1 with Tote, VC, Fred and BF Sportsbook (2pts)

Sevilla @ 19/1 with Bwin (1pt)

Sporting Lisbon @ 33/1 with VC and Coral (1pt)

Athletic Bilbao @ 28/1 with BF Sportsbook and Ladbrokes (1/2pt)

Totttenham @ 16/1 with most (1/2pt) – Coral have them at 20/1 but no-one else is close to that

 

The draw was a bit of a pain as Sevilla getting Villarreal scuppered those big bets.

Altogether there was a 5pt outlay and if Sevilla go on to win that would be a 14pt profit. Sevilla are big favourites to lift the trophy so it makes sense to probably cover any possible losses here. Bet Victor offer 3.75 on Dnipro to lift the trophy (apparently Boyle’s are offering 4.2 but I can’t believe that or that anyone would be able to get any money on at that price). A simple 2 point bet on Dnipro at 3.75 guarantees no loss.

 

vidal

 

If Sevilla win the tournament then it’s a 13pt profit and if Dnipro do then it’s an 0.5pt profit and a bit of disappointment.

Dnipro @ 3.75 with Bet Victor (2pts)

Tweeted stats for week ending 10th May

A small profit on the week. Will track these until the end of May and then do a summary.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
9-5Over 2.5 Today - Bursaspor (h) 10/14 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 10/14 = 20/28 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.567-1Win0.560.56
9-5BTTS + win Today - Bursaspor (h) 6/14 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 7/14 = 13/28 (46%) - implied odds of 2.1507-1Win00.56
10-5Under 2.5 Today - RC Lens (h) 12/17 + Montpellier (a) 14/17 = 26/34 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.790-1Win0.791.35
10-5Over 2.5 Today - PSV Eindhoven (h) 13/16 + Heracles Almelo (a) 13/16 = 26/32 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.262-0Lost-10.35

Tweeted stats for week ending 3rd May

Not a good week for the stats as they lost 2 points on under bets. As the season nears the end there are more goals as games mean less, but these are still in profit to the average prices recorded at football-data.co.uk

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
29-4Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 16/21 + Almeria (a) 10/17 = 26/38 (68%) - implied odds of 1.4803-0Win00
1-5Under 2.5 Today - Sochaux (h) 13/17 + Niort (a) 13/17 = 26/34 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.682-3Lost-1-1
3-5BTTS Today - SK Sturm Graz (h) 11/15 + Rapid Vienna (a) 11/14 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3202-2Win0-1
3-5Under 2.5 Today - Modena (h) 15/19 + Carpi (a) 15/19 = 30/38 (79%) - implied odds of 1.271.561-2Lost-1-2
3-5Under 2.5 Today - U. de G. (h) 14/16 + Veracruz (a) 10/15 = 24/31 (77%) - implied odds of 1.3001-2Lost0-2
3-5Under 2.5 Today - FK Amkar Perm (h) 8/12 + Lokomotiv Moscow (a) 11/13 = 19/25 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3201-1Win0-2

Can Manchester United win the Premier League next season?

Manchester United have been much improve this year under new manager Louis Van Gaal and currently sit in the Champions League places with just a few matches left to play. The Red Devils have played some exquisite football in the second half of the campaign, and recent went on a six match winning run – beating the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City. We take a look at this United squad and give our thoughts on whether they can compete for the title next season or if Van Gaal needs one more years before they can regain their crown.

 

 

They have performed well in the big games this year

 

On the whole, United have been excellent in the key matches this season. They have beaten Liverpool twice and also picked up wins against Manchester City and Arsenal. Furthermore, they earned an impressive draw against Chelsea earlier in the campaign and recently, they were narrowly beaten by the Blues despite many predicting that Van Gaal’s side would pick up all three points. If the Red Devils can continue to pick up victories over their rivals next year, then they will stand a great chance of winning their 14th Premier League title.

 

 

 

They will be active in the transfer market

 

United must invest heavily in the summer transfer window if they are to challenge for silverware next season. Despite a much improved year, there are still obvious problems in the squad and it would be no surprise to see Van Gaal bring three or four players in over the summer. At the very least, the Red Devils need a commanding central defender, a box-to-box midfielder and a clinical striker. If United can lure the likes of Memphis Depay, Mats Hummels and Ilkay Gundogan to Old Trafford, they will be very difficult to beat next year.

 

 

 

Louis Van Gaal is eyeing up a title before he retires

 

The Dutchman has two years remaining on his contract at Old Trafford and has already revealed that he intends to win the Premier League title with the club. United are more than capable of challenging for the league, and Van Gaal has adapted quickly to the Premier League’s style. The 63-year-old has started to build a strong team at Old Trafford, and it would be foolish to think that United won’t be major challengers next season. With a couple of incoming transfers, the Red Devils will push Chelsea for their crown.

 

 

Tweeted stats for week ending 26th April

A small 0.1 point loss this week but the bets are still in profit and next month I’ll do a summary once the leagues start to finish.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
25-4Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 20/22 + Luton (a) 16/22 = 36/44 (82%) - implied odds of 1.221.671-0Win0.670.67
25-4Under 2.5 Today - Karlsruher SC (h) 11/14 + Greuther Furth (a) 11/14 = 22/28 (79%) - implied odds of 1.271.632-1Lost-1-0.33
26-4Under 2.5 Today - Llagostera (h) 12/17 + Sporting Gijon (a) 14/17 = 26/34 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.540-0Win0.540.21
26-4Over 2.5 Today - Dordrecht (h) 10/15 + Cambuur (a) 12/15 = 22/30 (73%) - implied odds of 1.361.580-0Lost-1-0.79
26-4Over 2.5 Today - SC Paderborn 07 (h) 10/14 + Werder Bremen (a) 10/14 = 20/28 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.692-2Win0.69-0.1
26-4Win HT/FT Today - Asteras Tripolis (h) 8/15 + Panthrakikos (a) 10/15 = 18/30 (60%) - implied odds of 1.6702-1Lost0-0.1

Tweeted stats for week ending 19th April

Another profitable week for the tweeted stats. The BTTS score stats have been poor and when the major European leagues end next month these stats will not be tweeted anymore.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
17-4Under 2.5 Today - Troyes (h) 12/15 + Ajaccio (a) 11/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.301.582-0Win0.580.58
18-4BTTS Today - SV Ried (h) 10/14 + Rapid Vienna (a) 11/13 = 21/27 (78%) - implied odds of 1.2800-1Lost00.58
18-4Under 2.5 Today - Ufa (h) 8/10 + Lokomotiv Moscow (a) 9/11 = 17/21 (81%) - implied odds of 1.2401-0Win00.58
18-4Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 15/19 + Malaga (a) 6/15 = 21/34 (59%) - implied odds of 1.6803-1Win00.58
19-4BTTS Today - FC Utrecht (h) 11/15 + FC Twente Enschede (a) 12/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.3001-0Lost00.58
19-4Under 2.5 Today - Tenerife (h) 15/17 + Llagostera (a) 14/16 = 29/33 (88%) - implied odds of 1.141.540-0Win0.541.12
19-4Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 12/13 + Melbourne City (a) 6/12 = 18/25 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4103-1Win01.12

 

 

Tweeted stats for week ending 12th April

Realised that last week I included matches played on the Monday in the stats round up which is wrong so have started this weeks round up on Tuesday. Positive results and the over and under bets, which are the only ones we have prices for, have both been profitable. Come the end of the season I’ll do some analysis to compare the prices available against the implied odds to see if any games could be filtered out where the value was not that big.

 

Results summary here and last weeks results below

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
7-4Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 16/19 + Montpellier (a) 11/14 = 27/33 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.610-0Win0.610.61
8-4Under 2.5 Today - Granada (h) 11/14 + Celta Vigo (a) 11/15 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.591-1Win0.591.2
8-4Over 2.5 Today - Raith Rovers (h) 14/16 + Cowdenbeath (a) 12/16 = 26/32 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.631-3Win0.631.83
10-4Under 2.5 Today - Crucero del Norte (h) 4/4 + Atletico Rafaela (a) 3/4 = 7/8 (88%) - implied odds of 1.1401-1Win01.83
10-4Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 11/12 + Sydney FC (a) 6/11 = 17/23 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3700-3Win01.83
10-4BTTS + win Today - FC Dallas (h) 13/22 + Colorado (a) 8/19 = 21/41 (51%) - implied odds of 1.9800-4Lost01.83
11-4BTTS Today - San Lorenzo (h) 2/4 + Independiente (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost01.83
11-4Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 18/20 + Tranmere (a) 13/20 = 31/40 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.61-0Win0.62.43
11-4Over 2.5 Today - San Lorenzo (h) 3/4 + Independiente (a) 3/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost02.43
11-4Over 2.5 Today - Bayern Munich (h) 10/17 + Eintracht Frankfurt (a) 11/13 = 21/30 (72%) - implied odds of 1.391.343-0Win0.362.79
11-4Win HT/FT Today - Racing Club (h) 3/4 + Huracan (a) 2/4 = 5/8 (63%) - implied odds of 1.6002-0Lost02.79
11-4BTTS + win Today - Racing Club (h) 2/4 + Huracan (a) 2/4 = 4/8 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0002-0Lost02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Boca Juniors (h) 2/4 + Nueva Chicago (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Groningen (h) 9/14 + Cambuur (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3303-2Win02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Argentinos Juniors (h) 2/4 + River Plate (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-2Win02.79
12-4Under 2.5 Today - Torino (h) 11/14 + Roma (a) 13/17 = 24/31 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.61-1Win0.63.39
12-4BTTS + win Today - Boca Juniors (h) 2/4 + Nueva Chicago (a) 2/4 = 4/8 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0000-0Lost03.39

Tweeted stats for week ending 6th April

9/12 bets were winners. Full results are shown here  and it would be interesting to know prices of some of the other bets such as Win HT/FT based on the success.

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
2-4Under 2.5 Today - US Avellino (h) 12/17 + Modena (a) 13/16 = 25/33 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.521-0Win0.520.52
3-4BTTS Today - Sarmiento de Junín (h) 4/4 + Belgrano de Cordoba (a) 6/12 = 10/16 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-3Win00.52
3-4Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 15/18 + Saint Etienne (a) 11/15 = 26/33 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.451-1Win0.450.97
3-4Over 2.5 Today - Sarmiento de Junín (h) 4/4 + Belgrano de Cordoba (a) 8/12 = 12/16 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2001-3Win00.97
3-4Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 14/19 + Bristol City (a) 13/19 = 27/38 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.921-1Lost-1-0.03
4-4Over 2.5 Today - Dordrecht (h) 9/14 + Heracles Almelo (a) 11/14 = 20/28 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.642-3Win0.640.61
4-4Over 2.5 Today - Leon (h) 10/13 + Queretaro (a) 9/14 = 19/27 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4204-5Win00.61
5-4BTTS Today - Bursaspor (h) 9/12 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 11/13 = 20/25 (80%) - implied odds of 1.2503-0Lost00.61
5-4Over 2.5 Today - Galatasaray (h) 12/15 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 8/12 = 20/27 (73%) - implied odds of 1.361.694-2Win0.691.3
6-4BTTS Today - Dartford (h) 17/20 + Barnet (a) 15/21 = 32/41 (78%) - implied odds of 1.2800-1Lost01.3
6-4Under 2.5 Today - Brondby (h) 9/11 + FC Copenhagen (a) 9/10 = 18/21 (86%) - implied odds of 1.1600-0Win01.3
6-4Over 2.5 Today - Brentford (h) 14/20 + Nottingham Forest (a) 15/20 = 29/40 (73%) - implied odds of 1.381.652-2Win0.651.95

Tweeted stats for week ending 29th March

A short week but a winning one. All 6 bets were winners.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
24-3Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 13/18 + Rochdale (a) 14/18 = 27/36 (75%) - implied odds of 1.331.963-0Win0.960.96
28-3BTTS Today - Perth Glory (h) 10/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 7/11 = 17/22 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2903-2Win00.96
28-3BTTS Today - Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (h) 9/12 + Independiente (a) 9/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-2Win00.96
28-3Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 10/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 6/11 = 16/22 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3803-2Win00.96
28-3Over 2.5 Today - Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (h) 9/12 + Independiente (a) 8/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4102-2Win00.96
28-3BTTS + win Today - Perth Glory (h) 5/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 5/11 = 10/22 (45%) - implied odds of 2.2003-2Win00.96