Dafabet odds on the site

Since pinnacle decided to stop offering odds to UK punters I have had to search for an alternative odds supplier. It was a case of looking at which bookmakers offered an odds feed that are reputable and offer decent prices.

The one chosen was dafabet and looking through the matches this weekend they are very competitive and are better priced than Pinnacle on a number of the Asian Handicap markets. This now means all users have Dafabet and 5Dimes prices and non-UK users also still have Pinnacle.

 

Dafabet are sponsors of Aston Villa which probably helped in their decision to stick in the UK market when a number of the other Asian firms pulled out. To open an account with Dafabet click here.

Site Abbreviations

From time to time I receive emails from people asking what various abbreviations mean on the site. It makes sense to make a blog post that lists them and which can be added to and referred to.

 

General Metrics

BTTS – Both teams to score. Bookmakers often offer markets based on both teams to score and combine it with other bets such as both teams to score and one team to win.

 

Corner Metrics

P – Played which is matches played.
F – For which is corners for the selected team.
A – Against which is corners against the selected team (corners they have conceded).
TOT – Total corners
XC – Cross corners which is home team corners x away team corners
HC – Home corners – corners for the home team
AC – Away corners – corners for the away team
TC – Total corners
CD – Corner difference which is home corners – away corners
Will add abbreviations to this any time they are requested.

Champions League: Matchday 6 – Roundup

Great way to round this off with a profit. Got the draw in the Juve game although Atletico continued to drift and were backable at 5.3 before the game.

Juventus v Atletico Madrid – Draw @ 3.1 with VC, WH, Lads and others – WON (1-1) +2.1

Roma v Manchester City – Roma @ 2.5 with Bet365, Lads, WH and BF – LOST (0-2) -1

At the end of the group stages this has again turned a tidy profit and very pleasing. The knockout is a whole different ball game and what patterns used to exist were blown out of the water last year with the group winners completely dominating.

 

19 bets, 9 wins, 19pts staked, +7.85pts

 

 

Champions League: Matchday 6

The story so far – 17 bets, 8 wins, 14pts staked, +6.75pts

 

Last matchday of the group stages and a couple more bets. Chelsea and Shaktar both look value but neither of those games means anything for them so I’ll swerve those and stick to games that mean something.

 

Juventus v Atletico Madrid – Draw @ 3.1 with VC, WH, Lads and others

Roma v Manchester City – Roma @ 2.5 with Bet365, Lads, WH and BF

 

The Juventus game is interesting as the draw has been hammered right in to 3.1. Olympiakos have the edge over Juve in the H2H which I think is the first way they decide the groups and if Olympiakos win and Juve lose then Juve could go out. A draw suits Juve and also lets Atletico top the group, but really Juve have to want to top the group as that means you avoid Bayern, Real Madrid, Chelsea and PSG/Barca. It’s one of those games where if the draw keeps crashing then the value on the win part is much bigger. Atletico will settle for the draw late on and Juve might not search out a winner but the rest, you’d expect to a proper contest.

Juve have lost twice already and were 2-1 down at home to Olympiakos before winning 3-2 and Serie A still hasn’t shown itself to be a strong league compared to the rest of Europpe and the 4.33 on Atleti is starting to appeal and if they go out to 4.5 I think  there’s big value there.

As It Stands: Who Are The Favourites And Do The Stats Back Them Up?

Mourinho

Are the stats in favour of Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea?

cc by  Ronnie Macdonald 

It’s still relatively early days in the Premier League but, as we run up to Christmas, we can take a lot from some of the performances so far. We might be just about a third of the way through, however, a lot of what the teams are already telling us could dictate positions after 38 matches.

As with any league in football, things can quickly change. The Premier League isn’t known as one of the most exciting in the world due to constant one-horse or two-horse races. There is always competition for the top, be it from the old guard or a new team trying to break into the English elite.

As we’ve seen so far, many of the bigger clubs are already asserting themselves but surprise packages – such as Southampton, West Ham and Swansea – are also vying for top-four places. Whether they can maintain or improve their form into the murky depths of the season remains to be seen, whereas we know the likes of Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal, for example, can use their strength in depth when push comes to shove.

Top-spot holders Chelsea are firm favourites and the obvious choice. Don’t just listen to me though, the betting tips that can be found at betting.betfair agree. They’re 3/10 on, with closest rivals and current title holders City way back at 9/2. United are at 20/1, Arsenal at 49/1 and the odds get more and more distant from there.

Looking at the current league, will the biggest scorers get the chance to run away with it or will those with a tight ship be able to come good in the New Year?

 

Goalscorers

The Champions League places are in perfect order of goals scored. Riding high are Chelsea with 30, City with 27 and Southampton and United joint with 24. Eleventh-place Everton are an anomaly with 23 goals putting them joint-fifth with West Ham in the ‘goals for’ stakes. But typically goals mean points.

Diego Costa

Chelsea’s Diego Costa scores goals for fun

ccby  cfcunofficial

City’s Sergio Aguero leads the individual stats with a stunning 12 goals so far and he is closely followed by Chelsea’s Diego Costa with 11. The top-two teams have the top-two finishers and again that shows the correlation between finding the net and league success.

 

Keeping them out

Third-place Southampton have kept themselves in the running by not conceding many up until a 3-0 drubbing by City last weekend. In 13 games, they haven’t yet reached double figures in goals against, with only nine getting past their defence and first-choice goalkeeper Fraser Forster. This is indicative of how they’ve played and how deserving they are of the spot. Top-place Chelsea have conceded 11, with second-place City conceding 13.

Oddly, neither the first-place nor second-place teams feature in the top three for clean sheets. Southampton’s Forster rides high with seven in the league, meaning he has conceded in less than half of his matches so far. Swansea are holding on to a decent spot with six clean sheets. The fractured nature of clean sheets shows that while defence is key, it is goalscoring that is the main player in 2014.

Chelsea are scoring in abundance and keeping their goals against tally down low. Though it’s not always a clean sheet, they can rely on their firepower to deliver when they need it to get them out of trouble. An uninspiring performance recently against Sunderland shouldn’t change things too much. What they’re doing is working and the smart money would be on the London side this year. It just so happens that the numbers agree.

Champions League: Matchday 5 – Roundup

Cashback! A great night for the tips and this approach has done very well for a number of years and is one I firmly believe in. Matchday 3 was a low point with a 5 point loss but that is now forgotten with this full house netting 8.9pts. Faith and perseverance are important in betting although it is always wise to remember this quote from David Brent

Quitters never win, winners never quit. But those who never win and never quit are idiots.

 

Matchday 5 results

CSKA Moscow v Roma – Draw @ 3.5 with Bet365, Sky, Victor and Corals – WON (1-1) +2.5

Bayer Leverkusen v Monaco – Monaco @ 6 with most – WON (1-0) +5

Arsenal v Dortmund – Arsenal @ 2.4 with Bet365, Sky, Victor, SJ and Hills – WON (2-0) +1.4

17 bets, 8 wins, 14pts staked, +6.75pts

Champions League: Matchday 5

14 bets, 5 wins, 14pts staked, -2.15pts

3 bets this time round and I have completely excluded Bayern Munich from this as they are completely different to how they have been historically and are far stronger than any other German teams. Monaco have featured a few times this season and be nice if they could grab an away win.

 

CSKA Moscow v Roma – Draw @ 3.5 with Bet365, Sky, Victor and Corals

Bayer Leverkusen v Monaco – Monaco @ 6 with most

Arsenal v Dortmund – Arsenal @ 2.4 with Bet365, Sky, Victor, SJ and Hills

Team stats page

Someone sent me an email asking how the team stats page works. I replied and also thought I may as well post here if anyone else needs to know.
If I look at the page for over 2.5 goals you see this as the top two rows
Date League Home (matches) Away (matches) Home Over % Away Over % Av % Eq. Odds
22nd Nov Eng Prem Everton (5) West Ham (5) 80.0% 100.0% 90.0% 1.11
22nd Nov Bel Jupiler Lokeren (8) Westerlo (8) 75.0% 87.5% 81.3% 1.23
After the name of the team you can see the number of matches so in this case we see Everton (5) and that means the 5 Everton home matches
H – A Date vs (current position) Res
1 Nov 14 Swansea (5) 0-0 +
18 Oct 14 Aston Villa (16) 3-0 +
21 Sep 14 Crystal Palace (17) 2-3 +
30 Aug 14 Chelsea (1) 3-6 +
23 Aug 14 Arsenal (6) 2-2 +

It only includes home games for the home team and away games for the away team.

The Scottish football stat that proves competition there is dead

It has gone somewhat unnoticed and under the radar this week but a quick check of the Scottish Premiership table reveals a couple of surprising names at the top.

Celtic, surely?  I hear you ask. Well, no. Sitting pretty in first place after 12 games are, in fact, Dundee United. A point behind in second is, of course, Celtic… Got to be, right? Well, er, actually, wrong again.

The mighty Hamilton are in second place with Celtic having to settle for third at the moment.

Now, before you think I’m going to be making a case for a shock winner of the title north of the border this season and talk enthusiastically about the demise of the Hoops, I’ll stop you right there.

Yes the table has an unfamiliar look about it and, yes, things have not quite gone as well as Celtic boss Ronny Deila would have liked so far in 2014-15 but this is no time for either the Terrors or the Accies to start celebrating finally breaking the Old Firm SPL monopoly because, sadly, unromantically and simply put, it aint gonna happen. It’s a safe verdict that a quick check of the Scottish football betting odds will back up.

So, that damning statistic that hopefully drew you in in the headline is this:

No other club, apart from Rangers or Celtic, has triumphed overall in the Scottish top flight since 1985.

That’s 29 years. Twenty-nine. A whole generation has grown up, probably got married, bought a house and is now worried about some unwelcome grey hairs as they approach their third decade since someone other than the big two from Glasgow came out on top. Aberdeen’s victory back then came during what must surely be looked back upon as a ‘golden age’ for Scottish football with the Dons also securing the title the year before, while United had won it in 1983.

However, since then, nothing. Nothing for Motherwell, Hibs, Hearts or even Inverness Caledonian Thistle to get overly excited about because, as most football fans know, the title ‘race’ in Scotland has been contested by just two horses since then and, since Rangers’ recent demise in 2012 due to financial problems, only one.

Celtic are that far ahead of the rest of the pack – both on and off the pitch – that they will eventually go on to win the title, probably in April, by a margin in excess of 10 points. And they will achieve this without ever really needing to be at their best with a squad full of some journeymen European players, a sprinkling of genuine young talent and a smattering of experienced old heads who know what it takes to see off the ‘challenge’ of other clubs to finish top. Namely, not an awful lot.

Yes, football is unpredictable at times. Celtic may even lose 1-0 at home to St Johnstone, Partick or St Mirren in January and for a brief moment other clubs might fancy their chances. Then reality will bite and normal service will be resumed.

Because normal service in Scotland means that only either Celtic and Rangers ever win the title nowadays. That damning stat proves it. Dundee United and Hamilton might be enjoying their week in the top spots but even they know it won’t last.

Champions League: Matchday 4 – Roundup

Matchday 4 results

Benfica v Monaco – Benfica @ 1.85 with several inc Sky, VC, PP, Lads – WON (1-0) +0.85

Benfica left it pretty late but got the goal that was needed

14 bets, 5 wins, 14pts staked, -2.15pts

 

Loved this run from Marco Reus for his goal against Galatasaray. He makes the first pass and then sets off on a fantastic run to find the through ball, splitting the two centre backs so they are both a few paces behind him.