Tweeted stats for week ending 15th March

A small loss on the week for these stats and will be better at the end of the season to be able to take a look at all the results.

 

Prices recorded are only those available from football-data.co.uk

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
9-3Under 2.5 Today - Karlsruher SC (h) 9/11 + RB Leipzig (a) 8/11 = 17/22 (77%) - implied odds of 1.291.560-0Win0.560.56
13-3Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 14/16 + SC Bastia (a) 11/13 = 25/29 (86%) - implied odds of 1.161.563-0Lost-1-0.44
14-3BTTS Today - Perth Glory (h) 9/10 + Wellington Phoenix (a) 7/10 = 16/20 (80%) - implied odds of 1.2501-2Win0-0.44
14-3BTTS Today - Cagliari (h) 11/13 + Empoli (a) 8/12 = 19/25 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3201-1Win0-0.44
14-3Under 2.5 Today - Sonderjyske (h) 7/9 + Silkeborg IF (a) 8/10 = 15/19 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2701-4Lost0-0.44
14-3Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 9/10 + Wellington Phoenix (a) 7/10 = 16/20 (80%) - implied odds of 1.2501-2Win0-0.44
14-3Over 2.5 Today - Port Vale (h) 11/17 + Swindon (a) 13/17 = 24/34 (71%) - implied odds of 1.421.860-1Lost-1-1.44
14-3Win HT/FT Today - Atromitos (h) 6/11 + Panthrakikos (a) 8/12 = 14/23 (61%) - implied odds of 1.6502-0Win0-1.44
15-3Under 2.5 Today - Aalen (h) 9/12 + Erzgebirge Aue (a) 10/12 = 19/24 (79%) - implied odds of 1.261.573-0Lost-1-2.44
15-3Under 2.5 Today - Waasland Beveren (h) 10/14 + Lokeren (a) 12/14 = 22/28 (79%) - implied odds of 1.271.80-0Win0.8-1.64
15-3Over 2.5 Today - Manchester Utd (h) 10/14 + Tottenham (a) 11/13 = 21/27 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.743-0Win0.74-0.9
15-3Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 12/16 + Levante (a) 7/13 = 19/29 (64%) - implied odds of 1.5502-0Win0-0.9
15-3Win to Nil Today - Porto (h) 11/16 + Arouca (a) 6/12 = 17/28 (59%) - implied odds of 1.6801-0Win0-0.9

Tweeted stats for week ending 8th March

A losing week again for the tweeted stats. The both teams to score stats have been weak and they look to be a difficult way to predict results. The over 2.5 stats have had a bad time as well but they are still in profit, although that is mainly down to the fact that I am unable to record prices from some of the leagues that have lost. Will keep this going until the end of the season and then can break it down by leagues etc.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
2-3BTTS Today - Trabzonspor (h) 10/11 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 6/10 = 16/21 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3303-2Won00
2-3Over 2.5 Today - Trabzonspor (h) 9/11 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 6/10 = 15/21 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.763-2Won0.760.76
2-3BTTS + win Today - Trabzonspor (h) 7/11 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 3/10 = 10/21 (47%) - implied odds of 2.1403-2Won00.76
3-3Over 2.5 Today - Watford (h) 12/17 + Fulham (a) 12/17 = 24/34 (71%) - implied odds of 1.421.561-0Lost-1-0.24
6-3Over 2.5 Today - Wellington Phoenix (h) 5/9 + Adelaide United (a) 8/9 = 13/18 (72%) - implied odds of 1.3802-0Lost0-0.24
7-3BTTS Today - Brechin City (h) 11/12 + Airdrie Utd. (a) 7/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost0-0.24
7-3BTTS Today - Zwolle (h) 8/12 + Cambuur (a) 10/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3306-1Won0-0.24
7-3Under 2.5 Today - Tenerife (h) 13/14 + Leganes (a) 10/14 = 23/28 (82%) - implied odds of 1.221.481-0Won0.480.24
7-3Over 2.5 Today - Augsburg (h) 9/11 + VfL Wolfsburg (a) 8/11 = 17/22 (77%) - implied odds of 1.291.671-0Lost-1-0.76
7-3Over 2.5 Today - Mouscron (h) 9/14 + Westerlo (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.331.921-0Lost-1-1.76
7-3Over 2.5 Today - Zwolle (h) 8/12 + Cambuur (a) 9/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.786-1Won0.78-0.98
8-3Under 2.5 Today - Aalborg (h) 9/10 + Randers FC (a) 8/10 = 17/20 (85%) - implied odds of 1.1802-1Lost0-0.98
8-3Under 2.5 Today - U. de G. (h) 11/12 + U.A.N.L (a) 10/15 = 21/27 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2602-1Lost0-0.98

Tweeted Stats for week ending 1st March

A losing week for the tweeted stats and the profit is dwindling slightly. However, still in profit and it’s the both teams to score stats that are struggling.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
23-2Win HT/FT Today - Midtjylland (h) 5/9 + Odense (a) 6/9 = 11/18 (61%) - implied odds of 1.6403-0Win00
23-2BTTS + win Today - Midtjylland (h) 5/9 + Odense (a) 4/9 = 9/18 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0003-0Lost00
23-2BTTS + win Today - Fenerbahce (h) 5/10 + Akhisar Belediyespor (a) 4/9 = 9/19 (47%) - implied odds of 2.1201-2Lost00
24-2Over 2.5 Today - Torquay (h) 9/15 + Lincoln (a) 13/16 = 22/31 (71%) - implied odds of 1.420-Postponed00
27-2BTTS Today - Galatasaray (h) 9/13 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 9/11 = 18/24 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3203-1Win00
27-2BTTS Today - Newcastle Jets (h) 7/8 + Central Coast Mariners (a) 5/8 = 12/16 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost00
27-2Under 2.5 Today - Ajaccio GFCO (h) 11/13 + Orleans (a) 9/12 = 20/25 (80%) - implied odds of 1.251.4623-2Lost-1-1
27-2Under 2.5 Today - Vestsjaelland (h) 5/8 + Sonderjyske (a) 8/9 = 13/17 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3200-1Won0-1
28-2Under 2.5 Today - Lorient (h) 9/13 + SC Bastia (a) 10/12 = 19/25 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.622-0Win0.62-0.38
28-2Over 2.5 Today - Bristol City (h) 9/16 + Rochdale (a) 13/15 = 22/31 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.811-0Lost-1-1.38
28-2Over 2.5 Today - Cambuur (h) 7/12 + Heracles Almelo (a) 10/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.661-0Lost-1-2.38
1-3Under 2.5 Today - Odense (h) 6/8 + FC Copenhagen (a) 7/8 = 13/16 (81%) - implied odds of 1.2301-0Won0-2.38
1-3Under 2.5 Today - Randers FC (h) 5/8 + Silkeborg IF (a) 8/9 = 13/17 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3201-2Lost0-2.38
1-3Under 2.5 Today - Akhisar Belediyespor (h) 7/11 + Istanbul Buyuksehir Belediyespor (a) 9/10 = 16/21 (77%) - implied odds of 1.301.770-2Won0.77-1.61

Tweeted stats for week ending 22nd February

Results for the stats tweeted last week. All stats have scores and whether they won or lost but only over and under stats have prices and the prices are the average price recorded at football-data.co.uk.

A losing week for the stats but overall they are still in profit 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
21-2BTTS Today - Dartford (h) 14/16 + Gateshead (a) 10/15 = 24/31 (77%) - implied odds of 1.300-Postponed00
21-2BTTS Today - Preston (h) 9/14 + Scunthorpe (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-0Lost00
21-2BTTS Today - Annan Athletic (h) 8/12 + Arbroath (a) 10/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-0Lost00
21-2BTTS Today - Melbourne City (h) 6/8 + Perth Glory (a) 6/8 = 12/16 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost00
21-2Under 2.5 Today - Mallorca (h) 9/13 + Osasuna (a) 9/11 = 18/24 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.553-0Lost-1-1
21-2Over 2.5 Today - Heracles Almelo (h) 8/11 + FC Utrecht (a) 10/12 = 18/23 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.541-1Lost-1-2
21-2Over 2.5 Today - Kortrijk (h) 8/13 + Westerlo (a) 11/13 = 19/26 (73%) - implied odds of 1.371.626-0Win0.62-1.38
21-2Over 2.5 Today - Aberdeen (h) 8/12 + Saint Mirren (a) 9/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.773-0Win0.77-0.61
21-2Over 2.5 Today - Albion Rovers (h) 8/13 + East Stirling (a) 8/10 = 16/23 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.720-1Lost-1-1.61
21-2Win HT/FT Today - Paris Saint Germain (h) 10/16 + Toulouse (a) 8/13 = 18/29 (62%) - implied odds of 1.6103-1Win0-1.61
22-2BTTS Today - Sonderjyske (h) 6/8 + Hobro IK (a) 8/9 = 14/17 (82%) - implied odds of 1.2201-0Lost0-1.61
22-2Under 2.5 Today - Tenerife (h) 12/13 + Real Valladolid (a) 9/13 = 21/26 (81%) - implied odds of 1.241.522-0Win0.52-1.09

Tweeted stats for week ending 15th February

Results for the stats tweeted last week. All stats have scores and whether they won or lost but only over and under stats have prices and the prices are the average price recorded at football-data.co.uk.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
9-2Over 2.5 Today - Lazio (h) 8/10 + Genoa (a) 8/10 = 16/20 (80%) - implied odds of 1.251.870-1Lost-1-1
10-2BTTS Today - Exeter City (h) 12/15 + Cambridge (a) 10/14 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3202-2Win0-1
10-2Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 9/13 + Swindon (a) 11/14 = 20/27 (74%) - implied odds of 1.351.932-1Win0.93-0.07
13-2BTTS Today - Newcastle Jets (h) 6/7 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 4/7 = 10/14 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4001-1Win0-0.07
13-2Under 2.5 Today - Queretaro (h) 8/11 + Cruz Azul (a) 9/10 = 17/21 (81%) - implied odds of 1.2301-2Lost0-0.07
13-2Over 2.5 Today - Newcastle Jets (h) 6/7 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 4/7 = 10/14 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4001-1Lost0-0.07
14-2BTTS Today - Brechin City (h) 8/9 + Morton (a) 9/12 = 17/21 (82%) - implied odds of 1.2201-1Win0-0.07
14-2BTTS Today - Akhisar Belediyespor (h) 6/10 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 9/10 = 15/20 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost0-0.07
14-2BTTS Today - Latina (h) 8/12 + Pescara (a) 10/13 = 18/25 (72%) - implied odds of 1.3902-0Lost0-0.07
14-2Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 13/15 + Montpellier (a) 9/12 = 22/27 (81%) - implied odds of 1.240-Postponed0-0.07
14-2Under 2.5 Today - Nantes Atlantique (h) 9/12 + SC Bastia (a) 9/11 = 18/23 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.460-2Win0.460.39
14-2Under 2.5 Today - Sochaux (h) 11/12 + Nancy (a) 7/11 = 18/23 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.490-2Win0.490.88
14-2Under 2.5 Today - Sheffield Wednesday (h) 12/15 + Brighton (a) 11/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.301.550-0Win0.551.43
14-2Under 2.5 Today - York (h) 12/15 + Tranmere (a) 10/14 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.552-0Win0.551.98
14-2Over 2.5 Today - Raith Rovers (h) 8/10 + Falkirk (a) 8/11 = 16/21 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.692-2Win0.692.67
14-2Over 2.5 Today - Dumbarton (h) 8/11 + Cowdenbeath (a) 8/11 = 16/22 (73%) - implied odds of 1.381.541-2Win0.543.21
14-2Over 2.5 Today - Peterborough (h) 9/15 + Rochdale (a) 12/14 = 21/29 (73%) - implied odds of 1.371.872-1Win0.874.08
14-2Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 11/13 + Deportivo La Coruna (a) 4/10 = 15/23 (62%) - implied odds of 1.6002-0Win04.08
15-2Win to Nil Today - Benfica (h) 8/12 + Vitoria Setubal (a) 6/10 = 14/22 (63%) - implied odds of 1.5803-0Win04.08

Villarreal, a temporadon and the Europa League

In a couple of weeks time the Champions League starts again and so does it’s lower key cousin the Europa League. There are 32 teams left and so they have to squeeze in one more round than the Champions League between now and the final. There is a massive prize at stake for the winner this year with direct entry into the Champions League as well as the trophy.

The Europa League has run in it’s current format for 5 seasons and the winners have been Atletico Madrid twice, Porto, Chelsea and Sevilla. Those teams come from Portugal, Spain and England and those countries have provided 16 of the 20 semi-finalists in those 5 tournaments. It therefore seems a bit odd that in the betting for this tournament it’s Napoli, Roma, Liverpool, Wolfsburg and Inter Milan as the top 5 teams. Sevilla are the shortest price Spanish team at around 16/1. Spain are the European powerhouse at the moment and they have proven that in the Europa League and previously in the UEFA cup. Of the last 11 finals spanning those 2 competitions a Spanish team has taken the trophy in 6 of them and they have also provided a losing finalist in a couple.

6 of the last 11 winners were Spanish! That’s pretty staggering and the league does not seem to have weakened this year and in actual fact may even have got better. Sevilla are 16/1, Villarreal 20/1 and Athletic Bilbao 28/1 and all of them have to be some value based on those facts.

villarreal

After their game at the weekend Marcelino was talking in the press conference and said from his point of view the season Villarreal are having is a temporadon. This is just another way of saying an excellent season and you would have to agree with him. Copa del Rey semi-finalists and they are In the group of 3, with Sevilla and Valencia, that are fighting for that 4th Champions League spot. They have been on a an excellent run of late and when they lost to Barcelona on 1st February it was their first league defeat since 2nd November including a 1-0 win in the Calderon against Atleti. 20/1 looks far too big on them and looks worth a bet.

Athletic Bilbao are also in the Copa del Rey semi finals and 28/1 looks very big on them as well. The Champions League was a step too far for them and they did not have the class or experience to compete properly.

Athletic qualified by coming in 3rd place I their Champions League group but that is no real advantage in terms of the Europa League. 9 of he 20 semi finalists in the last 5 years came from the Champions League so there is no real evidence that either method of arriving at the knockout stages is better.

The other countries that have done well are England and Portugal. English teams are often poor value in Europe but Spurs at 20/1 look more value than Liverpool at 14/1 and even have a member of last years winning team in their squad with Fazio.

The only team from Portugal in the Europa League is Sporting Lisbon, who lie 3rd in the Portuguese League. Although they are 3rd they have lost just one game in the league this season and drawn both matches with Benfica and once with Porto so at 33/1 with the Portuguese history in this also look very interesting. 4 of the 10 finalists in the last 5 years have come from Portugal so they have the form to do it.

There are 32 teams still to play in this and the draw may not be kind as they progress through the tournament so it probably makes sense to cover a few teams and see where you end up.

 

My personal choices will be

Villarreal @ 20/1 with Tote, VC, Fred and BF Sportsbook (2pts)

Sevilla @ 19/1 with Bwin (1pt)

Sporting Lisbon @ 33/1 with VC and Coral (1pt)

Athletic Bilbao @ 28/1 with BF Sportsbook and Ladbrokes (1/2pt)

Totttenham @ 16/1 with most (1/2pt) – Coral have them at 20/1 but no-one else is close to that

Tweeted stats last week

Results for the stats tweeted last week. All stats have scores and whether they won or lost but only over and under stats have prices and the prices are the average price recorded at football-data.co.uk.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
3-2Over 2.5 Today - Alfreton Town (h) 8/13 + Lincoln (a) 13/15 = 21/28 (74%) - implied odds of 1.350-Postponed00
3-2Over 2.5 Today - Eintracht Frankfurt (h) 6/9 + VfL Wolfsburg (a) 6/8 = 12/17 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.441-1Lost-1-1
6-2Under 2.5 Today - Ajaccio (h) 8/11 + Laval (a) 10/11 = 18/22 (82%) - implied odds of 1.221.50-0Win0.5-0.5
7-2BTTS Today - Chiapas (h) 8/11 + Tijuana (a) 8/10 = 16/21 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3102-2Win0-0.5
7-2BTTS Today - Watford (h) 10/14 + Blackburn (a) 11/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost0-0.5
7-2BTTS Today - Perth Glory (h) 7/8 + Sydney FC (a) 4/7 = 11/15 (72%) - implied odds of 1.3801-3Win0-0.5
7-2BTTS Today - Melbourne Victory (h) 5/8 + Melbourne City (a) 5/6 = 10/14 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3703-0Lost0-0.5
7-2Under 2.5 Today - US Avellino (h) 9/12 + Latina (a) 10/12 = 19/24 (79%) - implied odds of 1.261.481-0Win0.48-0.02
7-2Under 2.5 Today - U.A.N.L (h) 9/12 + Puebla (a) 8/10 = 17/22 (78%) - implied odds of 1.2901-0Win0-0.02
7-2Over 2.5 Today - PSV Eindhoven (h) 7/10 + FC Utrecht (a) 9/11 = 16/21 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.363-1Win0.360.34
7-2Over 2.5 Today - Atletico Madrid (h) 9/14 + Real Madrid (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.331.864-0Win0.861.2
7-2Over 2.5 Today - KAA Gent (h) 7/12 + Westerlo (a) 10/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.634-0Win0.631.83
8-2BTTS Today - Augsburg (h) 5/9 + Eintracht Frankfurt (a) 8/9 = 13/18 (72%) - implied odds of 1.3802-2Win01.83
8-2BTTS Today - Eintracht Braunschweig (h) 6/9 + Kaiserslautern (a) 7/9 = 13/18 (72%) - implied odds of 1.3800-2Lost01.83
8-2BTTS Today - Feyenoord (h) 7/11 + Cambuur (a) 8/10 = 15/21 (72%) - implied odds of 1.3902-1Win01.83
8-2Over 2.5 Today - Augsburg (h) 7/9 + Eintracht Frankfurt (a) 7/9 = 14/18 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.632-2Win0.632.46

 

Tweeted stats last week

As there are a number of tweeted stats it makes sense to keep a track of them and get an idea of how they do. All stats have scores and whether they won or lost but only over and under stats have prices and the prices are the average price recorded at football-data.co.uk.

 

There are also some stats that are sent with a tweet that begins hello, hi, good morning etc but I am not including this. The tweets included are those that begin with the stat name. e.g. BTTS Today – Derby (h) 7/13 + Blackburn (a) 11/13 = 18/26 (69%), implied odds of 1.44.

 

The idea is to keep track of these each Monday

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
27-1BTTS Today - Derby (h) 7/13 + Blackburn (a) 11/13 = 18/26 (69%) - implied odds of 1.44-2-0Lost0
27-1Under 2.5 Today - Sheffield Wednesday (h) 10/13 + Birmingham (a) 9/13 = 19/26 (73%) - implied odds of 1.371.790-0Win0.790.79
30-1BTTS Today - Trabzonspor (h) 8/9 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 8/9 = 16/18 (89%) - implied odds of 1.13-2-1Win0.79
30-1BTTS Today - Chateauroux (h) 8/11 + Angers (a) 8/11 = 16/22 (73%) - implied odds of 1.38-1-0Lost0.79
30-1Under 2.5 Today - Sochaux (h) 10/11 + AC Arles Avignon (a) 6/10 = 16/21 (75%) - implied odds of 1.331.61-0Win0.61.39
30-1Over 2.5 Today - Partick (h) 7/11 + Saint Mirren (a) 9/11 = 16/22 (73%) - implied odds of 1.382.110-1Lost-10.39
31-1BTTS Today - Liverpool (h) 9/14 + West Ham (a) 9/10 = 18/24 (77%) - implied odds of 1.30-2-0Lost0.39
31-1BTTS Today - Cittadella (h) 9/11 + Trapani (a) 8/12 = 17/23 (74%) - implied odds of 1.35-1-0Lost0.39
31-1BTTS Today - FC Twente Enschede (h) 6/9 + Cambuur (a) 7/9 = 13/18 (72%) - implied odds of 1.38-2-1Win0.39
31-1Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 13/13 + York (a) 8/13 = 21/26 (81%) - implied odds of 1.241.641-0Win0.641.03
31-1Under 2.5 Today - Leganes (h) 7/10 + Llagostera (a) 9/10 = 16/20 (80%) - implied odds of 1.251.512-0Win0.511.54
31-1Under 2.5 Today - Nantes Atlantique (h) 8/11 + Lille (a) 8/10 = 16/21 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.411-1Win0.411.95
31-1Under 2.5 Today - Motherwell (h) 7/10 + St. Johnstone (a) 9/11 = 16/21 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.61-1Win0.62.55
31-1Over 2.5 Today - Penafiel (h) 7/9 + Vitoria Guimaraes (a) 5/8 = 12/17 (70%) - implied odds of 1.432.21-1Lost-11.55
31-1Win HT/FT Today - Marseille (h) 6/11 + Evian Thonon Gaillard (a) 7/11 = 13/22 (59%) - implied odds of 1.69-1-0Lost1.55
31-1Win to Nil Today - Benfica (h) 7/11 + Boavista (a) 5/9 = 12/20 (60%) - implied odds of 1.68-3-0Win1.55
31-1BTTS + win Today - Marseille (h) 6/11 + Evian Thonon Gaillard (a) 4/11 = 10/22 (45%) - implied odds of 2.20-1-0Lost1.55
1-2BTTS Today - Vitesse Arnhem (h) 7/10 + Ajax (a) 8/11 = 15/21 (71%) - implied odds of 1.40-1-0Lost1.55
1-2Under 2.5 Today - Sassuolo (h) 7/9 + Inter Milan (a) 8/10 = 15/19 (79%) - implied odds of 1.271.723-1Lost-10.55
1-2Win HT/FT Today - Panathinaikos (h) 7/10 + Platanias (a) 6/10 = 13/20 (65%) - implied odds of 1.54-3-0Win0.55
1-2Win to Nil Today - Panathinaikos (h) 7/10 + Platanias (a) 5/10 = 12/20 (60%) - implied odds of 1.67-3-0Win0.55

Are match stats any use?

Today some alerts were set up for twitter to send some tweets when certain stats are good. The reason why this has started is because on Monday night the Napoli v Genoa match has a strong BTTS (both teams to score) and home win stat. The is what was tweeted.

btts tweet

 

 

Late in the game Napoli bagged a late goal and won 2-1 landing this bet and the odds were 3.3 and no the 2.25 in the previous post. This particular stat was way higher than what you normally expect. Two teams who both had BBTS in plenty of matches but also Napoli winning those matches at home and Genoa losing them away.

 

Seemed like a good idea to add some checks in the database to look for other games like this. Did so and this one popped up today as well as an arse wipe reply.

arse wipe

 

None of these stats are recommendations to bet. There is no profit and loss on them but rather they are a way for people to see some strong stats they may or may not want to look into. If people don’t like it they really don’t have to look at them.

Using Football Stats to Achieve a 100% Success Rate (Guest Article)

Rooney

licence by  nasmac  Caption: Manchester United’s Wayne Rooney

There might not be any certainties in life, but when it comes to betting on soccer you can get pretty close to perfection if you learn how to hedge your bets. Knowing the game well enough to understand the odds being presented to you by a betting exchange is a vital skill. However, once you’ve figured the perennial performers and eternal losers in soccer leagues you’re betting on, the process of picking a winner becomes a lot easier.

Of course, when it comes to soccer betting, the dynamics of a game are constantly changing and that means you need to stay on top of the numbers. Through a combination of general knowledge about the game and analysis of the hard facts (i.e. numerical data), you can improve your expected value (EV) enough that making a profit is easy.

It’s All About EV

In fact, improving your EV is the only thing you should be concerned about as a soccer gambler. Knowing that you’re able to make the best decisions in every situation is the sole aim for any professional gambler because they know that once they’ve made a +EV bet, the money will follow. While this doesn’t mean you’ll win every single soccer bet you place, it does mean you’ll make an overall profit if all your bets are +EV.

Thanks to the rise of modern betting apps and computer software, it’s now possible to make a guaranteed profit betting on soccer. By taking away the laborious task of running the numbers, crunching the data and coming to a conclusion, online betting apps have made it possible for punters to always make +EV bets.

Going Green

One such method that’s become possible through a combination of betting exchanges and modern technology is “greening up“. Used to describe the process of simultaneously betting on both sides of a soccer fixture to ensure a profit, this technique has only really been possible in the last few years thanks to online sports betting exchanges such as betfair.

In a nutshell, greening up takes advantage of the movement of odds within a sports betting exchange. If you’re able to identify a team that you think will win a match and, importantly, one that’s odds won’t drift (get worse) then you’re able to “green up”. Basically, you want the odds to shorten for the team you’ve picked to win.

If this happens, then you can back the other side of the bet (lay against the team) and secure a guaranteed profit thanks to the difference in returns between the two bets. For example, let’s say you backed Manchester United at the start of the week to beat QPR on Saturday. Given that it’s a relatively early bet you managed to stake £10 at 4/1 (5.00) on United winning the game.

Using Numbers to Your Advantage

At this point you believe United’s odds will shorten, so you look to make a lay bet. However, you need to know how much you need to stake. When it comes to greening up, it’s good to back high and lay low. So let’s assume you want to lay at odds of 3/2 (2.50). To quickly work out how much you need to stake on your lay bet, you can simply take the return if your backed bet wins (in this case £50) and divide it by the lay odds. However, if this is too much like hard work then you can use an online calculator.

Plugging in these numbers, you’d need to place a lay bet of £28 in order to achieve an £18 profit on this bet. Sound too good to be true? Well, it isn’t. Although there may be some commission to pay on winning bets, it’s possible to use your knowledge of soccer, take some stats and crunch some numbers in order to lock up a profit regardless of how a team performs on the pitch.