This week and next weekend will be difficult ones to post on. Apologies for that and hopefully back to normal on 9th December.
Always nice to get to Friday and it’s a big weekend for football. Bet365 tweeted the big games and it is impressive
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
Dortmund vs Bayern
Man Utd vs Arsenal
Leeds vs Newcastle
Atlético vs Real
AC vs Inter
This weekend. 😍 pic.twitter.com/5LuC8mjrEo
— bet365 (@bet365) November 17, 2016
On the subject of twitter we send out stats on Twitter highlighting games that pass a certain threshold. We get some nice tweets in return but also sometimes just unhelpful stuff like
@simplesocstats Such a horrible way of pricing that market. Why?
— Agent of Truth (@AgentOfTruth) October 29, 2016
All the tweets we send are just advice and for users to check them out further. Sadly we don’t have prices for all the tweets we have sent but there have been 390 tweets for over/under 2.5 bets and we have prices for all of these. We took the average price from football-data.co.uk for these as that seemed a better guide of whether they can be profitable or not. Over the 390 bets the loss has been 3.32 points which really is less than a loss of 1% of the total stakes. Using best prices or just Betfair you’d assume a decent profit could be made.
So really when people day it’s a horrible way to price a market it’s not necessarily the case and worth looking into the results first.
There have been 13/21 winning bets this season for a profit of 0.93pts. If we were to use maximum price then the profit would increase to 1.95pts with each winning bet on average having an 0.08 improvement in profit. There have been 238 winning bets so if they all had an 0.05pt improvement, so less than the average we saw above, then it’s an 11.9pt increase in profit so it seems as if backing these blindly at good prices will produce a profit.
Will get a full list of these bets for next week.
The international break is always a barren time for football but Brazil did beat Argentina last night in a decent game.
The European qualification is so diluted that you rarely get a decent match between big teams.
There are no international stats on the site and was looking round for international ratings and found an article on the Pinnacle website that goes through international ratings before Euro 2016 started and is quite interesting. Another article on the Rostrum goes into FIFA rankings and compares them to ELO to see which could be better.
The lower leagues all have matches and we have stats for those as per usual and will be back with a bigger weekender next time.
No new stats this weekend as time got the better of us all here. A quick summary on the corner bets from last weekend.
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||13.75||12|
|22nd Oct||Eng Champ||Rotherham||Reading||13.04||13|
|23rd Oct||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||13||8|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||12.985||9|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||12.875||8|
|22nd Oct||Eng Prem||Bournemouth||Tottenham||12.815||11|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||12.71||18|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||12.39||14|
|23rd Oct||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||12.375||4|
|23rd Oct||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||12.375||10|
|22nd Oct||Eng Lge 1||Shrewsbury||Northampton||12.14||13|
Half of the 10 went 12 or more and half were 11 or under. Would have been interesting to know what the lines were for each of these matches. The 3 games not in England all went under and it could be worth looking into the historical English results to see how these sort of teams performed.
Stats back next weekend.
The Simple Weekend (Big corners this weekend?)
Bit of a corner theme of late and sticking on that this weekend. Decided to check out which teams that play each other have the highest corner averages. The table below looks at the average home team corners when playing at home plus average away corners playing away. So for Bradford v Sheffield Utd it’s the 8.1 corner average that Bradford have at home + the 6.6 corner average that Sheffield Utd have when playing away.
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||8.1||6.6||14.71|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||8.8||5.7||14.42|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||7||6.8||13.83|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||5.2||8.6||13.77|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||5.5||8||13.5|
|23rd||Fra Lig 1||Paris Saint Germain||Marseille||8.8||4.8||13.5|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||9.3||4||13.25|
|22nd||Swe Allsven||Malmo FF||Ostersunds||7.1||6.1||13.16|
|23rd||NL Eridvis||Groningen||AZ Alkmaar||7.4||5.8||13.15|
|23rd||Rus Prem||Lokomotiv Moscow||CSKA Moscow||7.8||5.3||13.04|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Sevilla||Atletico Madrid||8.3||4.8||13|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||8.8||4.3||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Chesterfield||Scunthorpe||7.1||5.7||12.86|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Portsmouth||Notts County||7.8||5||12.83|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||7||5.7||12.67|
|22nd||Brasileiro||Sao Paulo||AA Ponte Preta||8.3||4.3||12.6|
Looking again but this time seeing who has the highest total. So the total for Rotherham v Reading is the total corners when Rotherham play at home (16) plus the total corners when Reading play away (11.5)
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Shrewsbury||Northampton||12.1||14.1||13.14|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||13.5||12.7||13.08|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||15.5||10.5||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||14.2||11.3||12.75|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Crawley Town||Accrington||12.8||11.7||12.25|
|23rd||Scot Prem||St. Johnstone||Dundee||10.8||13.8||12.25|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||10||14.4||12.2|
|22nd||Spa Primera||Real Sociedad||Deportivo Alaves||10||14.3||12.13|
|23rd||Swe Allsven||IFK Norrkoping||Falkenbergs||11.5||12.5||11.98|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||12.5||11.3||11.92|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Grimsby||Cheltenham||11.3||12.5||11.92|
|22nd||Ita Serie A||AC Milan||Juventus||14||9.5||11.75|
|22nd||Eng Champ||Nottingham Forest||Cardiff||11||12.5||11.75|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Stevenage||Carlisle||10.7||12.7||11.67|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Exeter City||Cambridge||11.3||12||11.67|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Torino||Lazio||14||9.3||11.63|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Bologna||Sassuolo||9.3||14||11.63|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Oldham||Bristol Rovers||11.9||11.1||11.5|
Newport vs Plymouth features very highly in both tables. Out of interest if we take the average from both approaches the top 10 matches are:
|Date||League||Home||Away||Av 1||Av 2||Av|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Newport County||Plymouth||14.42||13.08||13.75|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Roma||Palermo||13||13||13|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Wycombe||Barnet||13.77||12.2||12.985|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Blackpool||Doncaster||13.83||11.92||12.875|
|22nd||Eng Lge 2||Luton||Mansfield||12.67||12.75||12.71|
|22nd||Eng Lge 1||Bradford||Sheffield Utd||14.71||10.07||12.39|
|23rd||Ita Serie A||Atalanta||Inter Milan||13.5||11.25||12.375|
|23rd||Spa Primera||Real Madrid||Athletic Bilbao||13.25||11.5||12.375|
We like corners at Simple Soccer Stats, which is why we have the corner console. If you put in the hard work there is definitely money to made on the corners. A couple of weeks back we pasted in a grid showing total corners counts for Premier League teams over the past 6 seasons and this week we’ll do them on a team by team basis.
First the home team corners so for Arsenal this shows the number of corners they have when they are at home.
Now the same for away so for Arsenal it shows the number of corners Arsenal have when they play away.
Interesting the contrast between the bigger clubs and the smaller ones and how consistent some clubs can be with corners, such as Chelsea at home. The Man United numbers are lower than you might expect for those seasons and they often had high lines in the past.
Anything else you’d like us to look into then drop us an email or get in touch via twitter or facebook.
There is no simple weekend this time round as it is dominated by dull international football. It will be back again next weekend.
In the heatmap you can see stats for the current season but an idea might be to show stats for season using the same grids to see how they have changed. For example the table below shows the number of corners each team has had at home in the Premier League since 2010-11
Only teams currently in the Premier League are included and it’s hard to get a decent read on the table and that is why the heatmap is so useful. Manchester City look to be a team with high counts and Manchester United one with low.
The big match this weekend in the Premier League is the Saturday tea time clash between Arsenal and Chelsea. Whoever loses will feel the pressure as Liverpool have beaten both of these teams away so the loser will look like they can’t compete with the big boys.
The big 3 in London are Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal and they are building up a big rivalry as was seen in the game last season when Chelsea beat Spurs and presented the title to Leicester. These teams have all been there or thereabouts in the last 5 seasons aside from the Chelsea implosion last season as shown in the table below.
Finishing position of Arsenal Chelsea and Spurs in the last 5 seasons
There are have been 30 London derbies between these 3 teams in the last 5 seasons and there may be some patterns amongst the results.
The average (mean) corners is 10.7, the median is 11 and so is the mode. The full list of total corners is 16, 5, 11, 12, 11, 14, 11, 11, 12, 12, 10, 11, 7, 8, 9, 14, 9, 9, 8, 13, 8, 7, 4, 20, 15, 11, 13, 8, 13, 10.
The average (mean) yellow cars is 4.9 with the mode and median being 4. That crazy end of season game at Stamford Bridge had 12 yellows and the second highest total in these 5 seasons was 9 in Spurs other away game at Arsenal last season.
The full list of goals is 3, 8, 2, 7, 0, 0, 3, 6, 7, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 8, 3, 2, 2, 4, 4, 1, 0, 2, 2 and here the median and mode are both 3 with the mean average 3.0. 12 of the matches have been draws, 13 home wins and just 5 away wins, an average of 1 per season.
So 3 goals, 11 corners and 4-5 yellow cards sounds pretty much bang on what the lines will be so nothing too far from the norm.
Slipping this one in as did some research on Barcelona hosting Atletico Madrid in the late evening partidazo. Can’t beat a game of football that starts at 10pm local time on a Wednesday night.
2011-12 was the last time that the top 3 places in Spain weren’t filled by Atleti, Real Madrid and Barcelona and it’s likely this dominance will continue this season as it is hard to see any team that can build a sustained challenge. Sevilla and Villarreal have both changed coaches and time will tell if they are both downgrades.
In the last 4 seasons there have been 6 matches each season between these big 3 which gives us 24 matches and worth seeing if any patterns have emerged in those games.
Looking at the number of corners in these 24 matches the values are 9, 7, 14, 5, 4, 5, 12, 6, 10, 13, 7, 9, 11, 17, 5, 4, 12, 8, 7, 7, 14, 14, 6, 11
Average (mean) of 6.75 yellows with the mode and median being 7 cards. The full numbers were 6, 6, 2, 10, 8, 3, 9, 7, 5, 5, 7, 8, 8, 11, 7, 9, 6, 11, 5, 7, 3, 5, 10, 4
3 goals is the mean, mode and median average for all these games. 15/24 matches have had 3 or 4 goals. Total numbers were 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 7, 4, 0, 3, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 1, 3, 4, 2, 3.