Site Abbreviations Again

This was originally posted back in 2014 so bringing it out again as still get a lot of questions about it.

From time to time I receive emails from people asking what various abbreviations mean on the site. It makes sense to make a blog post that lists them and which can be added to and referred to.

 

General Metrics

BTTS – Both teams to score. Bookmakers often offer markets based on both teams to score and combine it with other bets such as both teams to score and one team to win.

 

Corner Metrics

P – Played which is matches played.
F – For which is corners for the selected team.
A – Against which is corners against the selected team (corners they have conceded).
TOT – Total corners
XC – Cross corners which is home team corners x away team corners
HC – Home corners – corners for the home team
AC – Away corners – corners for the away team
TC – Total corners
CD – Corner difference which is home corners – away corners
Will add abbreviations to this any time they are requested.

New Season New Hopes

For most supporters out there the new season brings new hopes and it’s no different for us here. We have a wishlist of improvements for the site that we are working through. This includes a number of suggestions people have emailed to us over the last 2 seasons. It’s quite exciting but we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves as this is going to be a major rebuild so will take a few months.

The idea is also that one of us will go back to posting corner bets this season. Normally we wait a few weeks for things to settle down but we’ll use the stats we have and on the site to look for bets in the Premier League.

Arsenal v City – More than just an Opening Day Blockbuster

Even though it has been several weeks since the release of the fixture list, the gravity of some opening day fixtures is not lost on anyone. It seems somewhat fitting that – albeit alphabetically – Arsenal vs. Manchester City should stand proudly atop the list.

 

City to ruin Emery debut

Despite Arsenal having home advantage, with an atmosphere bolstered by the presence of Unai Emery on the touchline, City are odds-on, or at least at evens, across the board to take the points. In one case, the champions are a mere 13/2 to beat Arsenal by at least three goals.

With Manchester City also having ‘trophy specials’ prior to 2018/19, there are no prizes for guessing which team the bookmakers have their own money on.

Unquestionably, from a betting perspective, this match will be the main draw of 2018/19’s opening weekend, especially those that want to use a free bet calculator after including the match in an accumulator. The match will mark the twentieth time that Arsenal FC has opened a Premier League (PL) season on North London turf.

Goals galore at the Grove?

Openers at Arsenal seldom want for goals, and with an outcome yielding over 2.5 goals odds-on across the board, this could easily be a classic. Only one of the nineteen Highbury/Emirates PL openers to date has produced a 0-0 draw; namely, when the Gunners hosted Sunderland in 2012.

A repeat of that 0-0 scoreline, between Arsenal and City, is priced at an average of 352/25 in current correct score markets. By contrast, three or more goals will see Arsenal become the first Premier League club to host over 100 opening day goals.

Though Arsenal F.C has been granted an extraordinary number of home openers in the PL era, it has not always gone to plan for the Gunners.

The Manchester City of 2018 is an entirely different entity from what it once was but, for what it is worth, this is the second time the fixture computer has fated City to open at Arsenal in the PL era. The first occasion was in 1994 when Arsenal strolled to a 3-0 win against a club about to embark on a Lucifer-esque fall from grace through the leagues.

With the tally currently at 97, the average per game is 5.10. An aggregate score involving seven or more goals will also make it the third season in succession that the Emirates has seen such a goalfest unfold – unheard of in the age of offside and (now) VAR!

Curse of the champions – a new phenomenon

Despite finishing 2017/18 with 100 points, Pep Guardiola’s nigh-unplayable Manchester City squad has plenty of reason to be wary. The reigning PL champions from a previous season have now lost in successive years for the first time ever. Indeed, it was not until 2016 that any champion (Leicester) lost a PL opener.

A failure for City to win will make it four years in a row that a reigning champion has failed to win an opener, with three already a record in any case. Regardless of the newly-impoverished record of reigning champions on the opening day, the club is on a run of seven straight opening day wins.

Pep Guardiola can also take encouragement from City’s recent PL record in away openers under the Khaldoon Al Mubarak regime.

City squads have scored twice as many (10) as they have conceded (5) on away openers during that time. If the 4-2 away defeat to Aston Villa (August 2008) is taken out of the equation, City squads have conceded just 0.2 goals per opening day road trip since 2009.

World Cup: Post 3 (No love for Russia)

Sting sang I hope the Russians love their children too back in 1985 and I’m sure they do but we’re not as keen on their team.

They are the worst team in the tournament according to FIFA rankings and there is definitely a massive advantage of being at home but also there is an increase in pressure. There is no escaping it and last time round Brazil were the home nation and got spanked 7-1 by Germany.

Russia kick off against Saudi Arabia today and they really need a win. Saudi Arabia are currently about 10.5 to win this match but we suspect that price will drop slightly today because it seems to give an enormous edge to home advantage when these teams are ranked equally by FIFA. Once Salah comes back then Egypt will be a real force and Uruguay with Cavani and Suarez leading the line are not easy opponents. Even if they beat Saudi Arabia they could easily lose to Uruguay and end up playing Egypt in a winner takes all game to finish the group.

We’re going to back them not to qualify at around 3.0 because that price should not move much if they beat Saudi Arabia but if they don’t get a win they are in trouble and we expect a drift and the chance to lock in some profit.

 

World Cup: Post 2 (Who’s tight)

We’ve all got a mate who’s tight but which teams are tight at the back and not likely to concede goals? In European qualifying England and Spain were the meanest at the back only letting in 3 goals in 10 matches. There were several teams that let in 4 goals which were Portugal, Germany and Croatia.

This gets you looking at Group B because Portugal and Spain are in that group together but then it gets even tighter

Spain conceded 3 goals in 10 qualifying matches

Portugal conceded 4 goals in 10 qualifying matches

Morocco conceded 0 goals in 6 qualifying matches

Iran conceded 2 goals in 10 qualifying matches

So over 36 matches these teams let in a total of 9 goals. You have the lowest values in Europe, African and Asian qualifying all in the same group. Morocco had three 0-0 draws in their 6 qualifying matches and look like they are going to be pretty dour. We don’t know about their style of football but the results don’t look great. This could be a group for upsets with a couple of 1-0 wins.

Portugal’s qualification was pretty easy and 32 goals in a group with the Faroes, Latvia and Andorra isn’t that great and they also blew up in the 2014 tournament and failed to get out of the group. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see that happen again and with Spain’s managerial problems one of the big guns could not make it.

We’ll be looking to back both Morocco and Iran to qualify to small stakes.