I have added a new site design as I intend to update the site. I hope you agree it is an improvement and all efforts in improving the site.

Big thanks to Luke Kelly for the design :: His Portfolio // His Behance profile

Just received an email from someone I work with you manages the football-bets.co.uk website. He’s a good guy and I know he’s honest and trustwortht.

Anyway they have an April newsletter that is worth a read and they also allow you to test the service for a couple of weeks for just £1.

http://www.football-bets.co.uk/newsletter/football-bets-newsletter-april-2012.php?a_aid=simplesoccerstats

I’ve highlighted five selections for you this week from the SimpleSoccerStats console. These are in general confidence below. Take a look and if you see anything you like as well please get in touch or post on the twitter or facebook pages. 

1. Man Utd v WBA

I expect goals in this match with WBA free scoring away from home. I think the best angle to side with the goals rather than the 4/7 on Over 2.5 is to look at the 2^nd half goals market.  I’ll outline

• WBA scored in 6 of last 7 away games, blank was 1-0 at Tottenham,
• WBA scored 13 goals in their last 6 away games
• United scored at least twice in last 6 home games, 18 in total.
• United 2^nd halves at home have featured 2 goals or more on 10 of the 13 games.

Looking at the last 6 games respectively you can see their 2^nd half results. Rather than risk backing United who have won 5 of the last 6 2^nd halves, we’ll play the Over 1.5 goals in the 2^nd half, which would have landed 5 of 6 for both team in their current form.

(United listed 1^st)                         (WBA listed 2^nd)

-          5 points over 1.5 second half goals @ 10/11 with Coral

2. Wolves v Blackburn

• Been 3 goals or more in last 11 Wolves home games
• Both teams have scored in 9 of the last 10 Wolves home games and 12 of the last 12 Blackburn away games
• 24 goals in last 6 Wolves home matches
• 23 goals in last 6 Blackburn away matches
• Scores a whopping 20/24 using BTS criteria (see last week’s post)

-          2 points over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 with Stan James

-          2 points both teams to score @ 8/13 General

-          0.5 point Blackburn 3-2 @ 28/1 General

3. Norwich v Wigan

Statistics wise, this doesn’t look at great overs game, but I think you have to look at Norwich home record in more detail. Against top half opposition they’ve played seven games and scored in five of those but against lower half opposition they average 2 goals a game and those games average more goals.

• Over 2.5 goals in last 8 Wigan away games
• Norwich scored in 10 of their 13 home games
• Wigan scored in 6 of their last 8 away games
• Scores a 16/24 using BTS criteria (see last week’s post)

-          2 points over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 General

-          2 points both teams to score @ 8/11 with bet365 and Skybet

4. Coventry v Birmingham

• Last 3 Birmingham games scored 13 goals
• Coventry only failed to scored once at home all season, scored 15 of 16 games
• Both teams scored in 4 of 6 Coventry home games and 4 of 6 Birmingham away games
• Scores a 16/24 using BTS criteria (see last week’s post)

-          3 points Both teams to score @ 10/11 with Coral

5. Peterborough v Blackpool

Peterborough have lost their goal potency recently but against Blackpool who cannot keep a clean sheet away from home, I’d expect plenty of goals in this one.

• Last 8 Blackpool away games featured over 2.5 goals
• Last 4 Peterborough away games over 2.5 goals
• Blackpool haven’t kept a clean sheet in last 10 away games

-          3 points over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 General

-          1 point Accumulator on all five games highlighted @ roughly 14/1 Stan James

As a side note, it’s also worth reading the bettingzone preview of the football leagues games. They’ve picked out Carlisle again but I don’t fancy them as much against Bury as they are more of a threat and the price isn’t as good as highlighted mid week.

A good contact is going to post additionally on this blog looking at matches. This is very close to being late so I’ll post this and will keep track of this all. I hope it is useful.

Derby v Blackpool

There’s been a big move on Blackpool this afternoon after opening up at 8/5 they are now a bet price of 11/8.

• Both teams have scored in all 9 of Blackpool’s last 9 games (home and away) so the over 2.5 goals in an attractive bet. I prefer this to both teams to score as
• Derby failed to score against Leicester and Reading in their last two run outs at home.
• Blackpool have won their last three away games 3-1
• 11 of last 12 Blackpool away games have had O2.5 goals

3 points over 2.5 goals – 10/11 coral
1 point Blackpool 3-1 – 22/1 ladbrokes

Carlisle v Rochdale

Carlisle have an excellent home record, where as Rochdale are very weak away from home, 8^th v 23^rd in the table.

• Carlisle haven’t lost at home since 10^th September,  12  games unbeaten at home
• Rochdale’s last victory away from Spotland came 9 games ago, a 1-0 win over Preston
• In the last 8 away games, Rochdale have scored one goal, with one 1-1 and three 0-0.

3 points Carlisle -0.25 on Asian Handicap at 1.78 with 188bet

MK Dons v Yeovil

• MK Dons home games average 3.1 goals whilst Yeovil away games average 2.8 goals
• The 8 home and away games for Yeovil have seen both teams score
• Yeovil have scored 8 goals in their last 4 away games
• MK Dons scored 9 goals in their last 4 home games

2 points Both teams to score – 5/6 coral

Swindon v Dag and Red

Swindon have an amazing home record winning their last 8 home games. Swindon’s away record is poor, only one away win in their last 14 away games. Rather than back Swindon at 2/5 there is some value on the correct score market.

• Four of Swindon’s last 8 home wins have finished 2-0

1 point Swindon 2-0 – 11/2 with Coral

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When Messi won the Ballon D’or for the third time last week he dedicated it to Xavi and in my opinion rightly so. When I came to Spain 6 years ago I thought Xavi was overated and slowed down all the Barcelona attacks. I couldn’t have been more wrong and much as I dislike Barça I love to see him play.

His achievements over the past few years have been staggering. Puyol and Iniesta have done the same but Xavi is always there and has not had the injuries of the other two and maintained his consistency. Reak Madrid won the league in the 2007-08 season but once that ended this is what he has achieved in the past 3 years:

European Champions (Spain) 08

Spanish League 08/09

Spanish Cup 08/09

Champions League 08/09

FIFA Club World Cup 09

Spanish League 09/10

World Cup (Spain) 10

Spanish League 10/11

Champions League 10/11

FIFA World Club Cup 11

He is rarely injured and for all the hype about Leo Messi he was poor in the world cup. He did have an incompetent manager but Xavi did the same job for Spain as he does for his club and led them to the title. His consistency has to be applauded and it’s a shame he probably just missed out on the last chance he had of getting the recognition he deserves. He turns 32 this month and the demands of the modern game mean he might have 2 or 3 more seasons left. People may argue he can play on like Giggs has but Giggs has been used sparingly by Ferguson and Xavi needs to be in the centre of the pitch controlling all the action.

I wrote an article for the Betting School last month and came across some interesting stats as I was looking at how teams perform when certain players play. The information I found persuaded me to write this post as last seasonXavi started in 15 Barcelona home matches and they won every single one. He missed 4 games and they won 1 of those but also drew with Real Mallorca and Deportivo, who were relegated and also lost to Hercules who also went down. So 45 points from a possible 45 when he started and 5 from a possible 12 when he didn’t.

His record was not so good oustanding when Barça were away from home but I think those home stats show his true worth. I think the achievements Xavi has made with Spain and Barcelona make him the real star of the last few years. It’s a shame he gets on his high horse about the way Barça play but when he’s gone they will miss the true conductor and I believe in the next couple of years will need to find a new style as without Xavi the tiki-taka will not be the same.