I’m starting to look ahead to the World Cup now and one stat this is likely to be brought out again and again is that European teams have struggled when the World Cup is outside of Europe. Now this is true and when Spain won the World Cup in South Africa it was the first time that a European team have won the tournament away from their home continent.
However, I don’t think this tells the full story as European teams have made the final a number of times and provided the majority of the semi finalists. I looked at the finals going back to 1970 and checked out how the European teams have done. I didn’t go back further than that because I think then you are getting into a whole different world of football and even 1970 is pretty far back. Even in that World Cup with all that heat Europe had one team in the final and two in the semis.
I prefer a chart to show anything like this and you can see the live version here or just check out the copied image below.
As you can see they may have struggled to win but they have provided more finalists that South America and a lot more semi finalists. Looks like the European teams have been a little unlucky in those finals?
Tottenham v Sunderland: Most First Half Corners – Sunderland @ 4.5 with Paddy Power (1pt) LOST-1
Levante v Athletic Bilbao: Race to 3 – Levante @ 2.25 with Bet365 (1pt) LOST -1
A very bad weekend for the corner bets. Those 2 losers bring the figures to
29 bets – 11 winners -7.54
It’s not pretty and I’m going to take a break from these and it could be all for the season. I won’t have the time for the next 2 weekends and as it gets later in the season the games get more random. Any spare time I have will be spent preparing for the world cup.
Not pleased with how these ave turned out as it has undone the good work I did with the Champions League (8 winners from 13 bets and a +7.12) earlier in the season. The only other selections I posted were for top goalscorer earlier in the season and these are likely to be losers unless Lukaku or Giroud score about 4 or 5 goals in their remaining matches.
Over the last few weeks a lot of work has gone into the new look website. Sometimes with changes like this there can be the odd glitch but I am hopeful there will not be many.
Some of the old pages have changed the url slightly but there is automatic redirection in place that should bring you to the new version of the page. If you see a page where this does not work or any other issues please do get in contact with me so I can fix them.
If anything goes disastrously wrong the old website is available here http://old.simplesoccerstats.com/ but the data in the old console section will be out of date for it.
Now the re-design is out of the way I can look at preparing data for the World Cup 2014.
Tottenham v Sunderland
Most First Half Corners – Sunderland @ 4.5 with Paddy Power (1pt)
Spurs have lost this in 8/16 home matches and Sunderland have won this in 8/16 away matches which indicates evens looks about right. Sunderland have to attack and as long as they don’t score an early goal this looks a decent bet.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao
Race to 3 – Levante @ 2.25 with Bet365 (1pt)
Levente have won this in 9/15 at home and Bilbao have lost this in 9/16 away so 1.67 would be the right price based on that and 2.25 looks value.
In betting one of the key ingredients is a bit of luck and it was lacking this weekend. Bologna were level with Inter at 2-2 on corners but Inter got the 5th and Bologna the 6th. Cagliari had 4 of the first 5 corners against Roma but unfortunately not the first and Valladolid had 9 corners to Valencia’s 4 but not the first. Always a pain to have weekends like that but all the bets look to have been good and there are more chances to make this back.
Inter Milan v Bologna: Race to 3 – Bologna @ 4 with Bet365 (1pt) Lost -1
Cardiff v Crystal Palace: Most Corners 1st Half – Cardiff @ 1.83 with WH, Bwin or PP (1.8) (1pt) WON +0.83
Cagliari v Roma: First Corner – Cagliari @ 2.1 with Bet365 and PP or 2.2 with Bwin Lost -1
Valladolid v Valencia: First Corner Valladolid @ 1.83 with Stan James and Bwin or 1.8 with Bet365 (1pt) Lost -1
27 bets – 11 winners -5.54
On Monday there are the games between Spurs and Sunderland and Levante and Bilbao and both interest me. I’ll look at those on Sunday or Monday and it is likely they’ll be one bet at least.
Inter Milan v Bologna
Race to 3 – Bologna @ 4 with Bet365 (1pt)
There are so many possible bets in this match around Bologna who look underpriced. First corner, most first half corners etc but I’ll stick with the simple race to 3. Inter have lost this in 7/16 at home and 6 of the last 10 and Bologna have won this in 8/15 matches. 4.0 looks generous for this.
Cardiff v Crystal Palace
Most Corners 1st Half – Cardiff @ 1.83 with WH, Bwin or PP (1.8) (1pt)
Palace don’t get a lot of corners. Away from home they their opponents have had more 1st half corners in 13/15 matches. If we look at Cardiff then they have had more in 9/16 matches which is odds of 1.78. That price is pretty accurate but the Palace stat means that 1.83 looks good value
Cagliari v Roma
First Corner – Cagliari @ 2.1 with Bet365 and PP or 2.2 with Bwin
Again I only have percentages for this but looking at Cagliari the price should be 1.78 and for Roma it should be closer to 1.5 so Cagliari should really be favs here and not Roma.
Valladolid v Valencia
First Corner Valladolid @ 1.83 with Stan James and Bwin or 1.8 with Bet365 (1pt)
I’ll settle this at 1.8 if it wins as Bwin are useless at taking bets. Valladolid nearly always get the first corner and should be closer to 1.4 on this and for Valencia a price of around 1.5 would be more accurate so 1.83 looks worth chancing.
Fulham v Everton: Race to 3 – Fulham @ 2.5 with Bet365 (1 point) WON +1.5
Stuttgart v Dortmund: Race to 5 – Stuttgart @ 3.5 with Bet365 (1 point) Lost -1
AC Milan v Cheivo: Race to 7 – Chievo @ 10 with Bet365 (1 point) Lost -1
Sunderland v West Ham: First Corner – West Ham @ 2.1 with PP/Bwin or 2.05 with VC or 2 With Bet365/Sky/WH (1 point) WON +1
Both the longer priced selections lost at the weekend. West Ham managed to get the first corner on Monday night and that made it a winning weekend. I checked AC Milan v Chievo after after around 25 mins and AC had already reached 7 corners so no idea what was going on there.
Improves the figures ever so slightly
23 bets – 10 winners -3.37
Fulham v Everton
Race to 3 – Fulham @ 2.5 with Bet365 (1 point)
Going against Everton again here as I did in midweek. Fulham have won this in 10/15 at home and Everton have lost it in 9/15 away so you’d expect Fulham to be the favourites really but they are not. They are out at 2.5 with Everton 1.5 to win it. I can’t see it really.
Stuttgart v Dortmund
Race to 5 – Stuttgart @ 3.5 with Bet365 (1 point)
Exactly the same records for both teams, Stuttgart at home and Dortmund away, for this stat with 6 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses so again how can Stuttgart be 3.5 and Dortmund 1.72. The price seems to be based on the match price rather than the stats.
AC Milan v Cheivo
Race to 7 – Chievo @ 10 with Bet365 (1 point)
AC Milan are really struggling this year and need a win and hopefully get an early goal or two to get Chievo out searching for corners. Chievo have won the race to 7 match in 5/15 away games including at Fioretina and Lazio and Milan have lost it 4/14 home games including against Udinese, Atalanta and Verona. 10.0 makes no sense as a price in this market and is just plain wrong. My big debate is on the staking here and I am going to go 1 point rather than the half, as I normally do on bigger price bets, as the edge is massive.
Sunderland v West Ham
First Corner – West Ham @ 2.1 with PP/Bwin or 2.05 with VC or 2 With Bet365/Sky/WH (1 point)
I’ll settle the price on this at evens and I can’t go into the stats too much as I don’t have them on the site and that is where I need them to break them down. All I have is precentages but on past games West Ham should be around 1.5 on this and Sunderland around 3.25.
Newcastle v Everton: Race to 3 Corners – Newcastle @ 1.83 (1pt) with Bet365 LOST -1
Roma v Torino: First Corner Torino @ 2.75 (1pt) with Paddy Power LOST -1
Inter v Udinese: Race to 3 – Udinese @ 3 (1pt) with Bet365 WON +2
No change at all in the totals as all even
19 bets – 8 winners -3.87
Udinese were outcornered 11-3 by Inter but luckily they had 3 of the first 4 corners and won the race to 3. I mentioned Liverpool v Sunderland and Sunderland did get most half corners at 5.25. I did my max stake with Bwin for this one and they let me have a whopping £7.71 on it. For that reason I couldn’t include that kind of bet in there. The only way to bet with them is in multiples as then they allow a much bigger stake. Even if it is a double then you can stake more than the single. I had Newcastle as the second part of the double sadly.
I’ve had a couple of weekends off from this as I am working on the site and also collecting a lot of data which has made analysis much easier for possible selections. A lot of games in midweek so a few bets to be had.
Newcastle v Everton
Race to 3 Corners – Newcastle @ 1.83 (1pt) with Bet365
The records are the opposite for each team as Newcastle have won 9 and lost 5 and Everton have lost 9 and won 5. Removing matches against the top 4 Newcastle look decent in this.
Roma v Torino
First Corner Torino @ 2.75 (1pt) with Paddy Power
I was interested in this bet whe I saw Torino were 2.45 with Bwin. The price of 2.75 with PP is far too big on this. Both teams have played 14 home or away games and this market has been split right down the middle for both of them with a 7/7 split on 1st corner. Even if we think there is some advantage to Roma the price of 2.75 looks good.
Liverpool v Sunderland
Bwin are miles off with their quote of most corners in the first half for Sunderland at 5.25. Liverpool have actually been outcornered in the first half in 5/14 home matches. I’m not putting this up as Bwin are hard to bet with but I will be doing it with them with whatever paltry stake they alow.
Inter v Udinese
Race to 3 – Udinese @ 3 (1pt) with Bet365
Udinese have won this is 7/15 away matches and Inter have lost this race in 6/14. 3.o is too big a price no matter how you look at the data.