Happy New Year and Happy London Derby too!

Hope everyone had a nice break and the office is back open here so we can deal with any issues or queries you have. Its Spurs v Chelsea tonight and we posted something a while back about the London derbies that is repeated below


The big match this weekend in the Premier League is the Saturday tea time clash between Arsenal and Chelsea. Whoever loses will feel the pressure as Liverpool have beaten both of these teams away so the loser will look like they can’t compete with the big boys.

The big 3 in London are Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal and they are building up a big rivalry as was seen in the game last season when Chelsea beat Spurs and presented the title to Leicester. These teams have all been there or thereabouts in the last 5 seasons aside from the Chelsea implosion last season as shown in the table below.

Season Arsenal Chelsea Spurs
2011-12 2 10 3
2012-13 3 1 5
2013-14 3 4 6
2014-15 4 3 5
2015-16 3 6 4

Finishing position of Arsenal Chelsea and Spurs in the last 5 seasons

There are have been 30 London derbies between these 3 teams in the last 5 seasons and there may be some patterns amongst the results.

Corners

The average (mean) corners is 10.7, the median is 11 and so is the mode. The full list of total corners is 16, 5, 11, 12, 11, 14, 11, 11, 12, 12, 10, 11, 7, 8, 9, 14, 9, 9, 8, 13, 8, 7, 4, 20, 15, 11, 13, 8, 13, 10.

Yellow Cards

The average (mean) yellow cars is 4.9 with the mode and median being 4. That crazy end of season game at Stamford Bridge had 12 yellows and the second highest total in these 5 seasons was 9 in Spurs other away game at Arsenal last season.

Goals

The full list of goals is 3, 8, 2, 7, 0, 0, 3, 6, 7, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 8, 3, 2, 2, 4, 4, 1, 0, 2, 2 and here the median and mode are both 3 with the mean average 3.0. 12 of the matches have been draws, 13 home wins and just 5 away wins, an average of 1 per season.

Summary

So 3 goals, 11 corners and 4-5 yellow cards sounds pretty much bang on what the lines will be so nothing too far from the norm.

Simple Weekend (Happy Christmas)

No games tomorrow as it’s Christmas Day but the madness of English football and the festive period starts on Boxing Day. We’ll keep the site up to date and Merry Christmas to our users from the Simple Soccer Stats team.

football-christmas-tree-facebook-cover

Simple Weekend (FIFA Club World Cup)

In the week we posted this about the Club World Championship and it took a late goal by Real Madrid to secure the 2 goal victory and therefore any stake on Real Madrid -2 on the Asian Handicap was returned.

world-club-championship

They play again today and you have to go back 11 matches to the final in 2009 to find the last time a European team did not win by 2 goals or more. Since the change of format in 12 of the last 13 matches the European teams have shown the gulf in glass in this tournament and won by 2 goals or more. The price on the Asian Handicap for Real Madrid -2 is around 1.8 and really looks a solid bet based on that stat.

European Teams in the World Club Championship (1 year on)

Last year we published this article about the World Club Championship and both bets were winners. We have updated the data to include those results and now we have all matches from 2009 to 2015 and the results are shown below

DateTeam 1ScoreTeam 2-2 AH-2.5AH
20.12.2015River Plate0-3BarcelonaWinWin
17.12.2015Barcelona3-0Guangzhou EvergrandeWinWin
20.12.2014Real Madrid2-0San LorenzoVoidLose
16.12.2014Cruz Azul0-4Real MadridWinWin
21.12.2013Bayern Munich2-0Raja CasablancaVoidLose
17.12.2013Guangzhou Evergrande0-3Bayern MunichWinWin
18.12.2011Santos0-4BarcelonaWinWin
15.12.2011Al-Sadd0-4BarcelonaWinWin
18.12.2010Mazembe0-3InterWinWin
15.12.2010Seongnam0-3InterWinWin
19.12.2009Estudiantes L.P.1-1*BarcelonaLoseLose
16.12.2009Atlante3-1BarcelonaVoidLose

The European team plays just 2 matches in this tournament and in those 12 matches have conceeded goals in only 2 and none in the last 5 years. It seems clear there is a big gulf in class between the European teams and the others in this and the -2 Asian Handicap looks an interesting bet as this has lost just once in that time and that was in the final in 2009. In all the semi final matches the European teams have managed to score 3 goals or more.

Bet Victor are offering 1.87 (was 1.9 when the article was started) on the Asian Handicap -2 and that looks a good bet.

Simple Weekend (Mentality)

When betting on football one of the hardest things is riding the losing runs. There has been a lot written about that kind of thing and last year a few of us in the office read Trading Bases by Joe Peta which is a great story of a year betting on Baseball. It’s a very interesting read and talks about the ups and downs and nearly got some of us interested in baseball.

 

The reason we write this is because we have been following a system for a number of years and it really was struggling. We’ve written about it before and we call it Island Hopping and involves backing certain teams based on Islands in European Leagues. Things always change and you start doubting your ideas and second guessing yourself but handily we kept the stakes high and last Friday night were rewarded when Maritimo won at home to Benfica at a price of 10.0. Such an enormous price for a home winner and highlighted again to us the importance of discipline and belief. It’s a great system again!

The Simple Weekend (Tweets)

Always nice to get to Friday and it’s a big weekend for football. Bet365 tweeted the big games and it is impressive

On the subject of twitter we send out stats on Twitter highlighting games that pass a certain threshold. We get some nice tweets in return but also sometimes just unhelpful stuff like

All the tweets we send are just advice and for users to check them out further. Sadly we don’t have prices for all the tweets we have sent but there have been 390 tweets for over/under 2.5 bets and we have prices for all of these. We took the average price from football-data.co.uk for these as that seemed a better guide of whether they can be profitable or not. Over the 390 bets the loss has been 3.32 points which really is less than a loss of 1% of the total stakes. Using best prices or just Betfair you’d assume a decent profit could be made.

So really when people day it’s a horrible way to price a market it’s not necessarily the case and worth looking into the results first.

There have been 13/21 winning bets this season for a profit of 0.93pts. If we were to use maximum price then the profit would increase to 1.95pts with each winning bet on average having an 0.08 improvement in profit. There have been 238 winning bets so if they all had an 0.05pt improvement, so less than the average we saw above, then it’s an 11.9pt increase in profit so it seems as if backing these blindly at good prices will produce a profit.

Will get a full list of these bets for next week.

 

 

The Simple Weekend (Internationals)

The international break is always a barren time for football but Brazil did beat Argentina last night in a decent game.

The European qualification is so diluted that you rarely get a decent match between big teams.

There are no international stats on the site and was looking round for international ratings and found an article on the Pinnacle website that goes through international ratings before Euro 2016 started and is quite interesting. Another article on the Rostrum goes into FIFA rankings and compares them to ELO to see which could be better.

The lower leagues all have matches and we have stats for those as per usual and will be back with a bigger weekender next time.

The Simple Weekend (Roundup)

No new stats this weekend as time got the better of us all here. A quick summary on the corner bets from last weekend.

DateLeagueHomeAwayAvActual
22nd OctEng Lge 2Newport CountyPlymouth13.7512
22nd OctEng ChampRotherhamReading13.0413
23rd OctIta Serie ARomaPalermo138
22nd OctEng Lge 2WycombeBarnet12.9859
22nd OctEng Lge 2BlackpoolDoncaster12.8758
22nd OctEng PremBournemouthTottenham12.81511
22nd OctEng Lge 2LutonMansfield12.7118
22nd OctEng Lge 1BradfordSheffield Utd12.3914
23rd OctIta Serie AAtalantaInter Milan12.3754
23rd OctSpa PrimeraReal MadridAthletic Bilbao12.37510
22nd OctEng Lge 1ShrewsburyNorthampton12.1413

 

Half of the 10 went 12 or more and half were 11 or under. Would have been interesting to know what the lines were for each of these matches. The 3 games not in England all went under and it could be worth looking into the historical English results to see how these sort of teams performed.

Stats back next weekend.

 

The Simple Weekend (Big corners this weekend?)

The Simple Weekend (Big corners this weekend?)

Bit of a corner theme of late and sticking on that this weekend. Decided to check out which teams that play each other have the highest corner averages. The table below looks at the average home team corners when playing at home plus average away corners playing away. So for Bradford v Sheffield Utd it’s the 8.1 corner average that Bradford have at home + the 6.6 corner average that Sheffield Utd have when playing away.

DateLeagueHomeAwayHCACTotal
22ndEng Lge 1BradfordSheffield Utd8.16.614.71
22ndEng Lge 2Newport CountyPlymouth8.85.714.42
22ndEng PremBournemouthTottenham6814
22ndEng Lge 2BlackpoolDoncaster76.813.83
22ndEng Lge 2WycombeBarnet5.28.613.77
23rdIta Serie AAtalantaInter Milan5.5813.5
23rdFra Lig 1Paris Saint GermainMarseille8.84.813.5
23rdSpa PrimeraReal MadridAthletic Bilbao9.3413.25
22ndSwe AllsvenMalmo FFOstersunds7.16.113.16
23rdNL EridvisGroningenAZ Alkmaar7.45.813.15
23rdRus PremLokomotiv MoscowCSKA Moscow7.85.313.04
23rdSpa PrimeraSevillaAtletico Madrid8.34.813
23rdIta Serie ARomaPalermo8.84.313
22ndEng Lge 1ChesterfieldScunthorpe7.15.712.86
22ndEng Lge 2PortsmouthNotts County7.8512.83
23rdNL EridvisFeyenoordAjax8.8412.75
22ndEng Lge 2LutonMansfield75.712.67
22ndBrasileiroSao PauloAA Ponte Preta8.34.312.6
23rdDen SuperligaBrondbyAarhus7.45.112.57
22ndEng ChampRotherhamReading7.25.212.33

 

Looking again but this time seeing who has the highest total. So the total for Rotherham v Reading is the total corners when Rotherham play at home (16) plus the total corners when Reading play away (11.5)

DateLeagueHomeAwayHCACTotal
22ndEng ChampRotherhamReading1611.513.75
22ndEng Lge 1ShrewsburyNorthampton12.114.113.14
22ndEng Lge 2Newport CountyPlymouth13.512.713.08
23rdIta Serie ARomaPalermo15.510.513
22ndEng Lge 2LutonMansfield14.211.312.75
22ndEng Lge 2Crawley TownAccrington12.811.712.25
23rdScot PremSt. JohnstoneDundee10.813.812.25
22ndEng Lge 2WycombeBarnet1014.412.2
22ndSpa PrimeraReal SociedadDeportivo Alaves1014.312.13
23rdSwe AllsvenIFK NorrkopingFalkenbergs11.512.511.98
22ndEng Lge 2BlackpoolDoncaster12.511.311.92
22ndEng Lge 2GrimsbyCheltenham11.312.511.92
22ndIta Serie AAC MilanJuventus149.511.75
22ndEng ChampNottingham ForestCardiff1112.511.75
22ndEng Lge 2StevenageCarlisle10.712.711.67
22ndEng Lge 2Exeter CityCambridge11.31211.67
22ndEng PremBournemouthTottenham9.513.811.63
23rdIta Serie ATorinoLazio149.311.63
23rdIta Serie ABolognaSassuolo9.31411.63
22ndEng Lge 1OldhamBristol Rovers11.911.111.5

 

Newport vs Plymouth features very highly in both tables. Out of interest if we take the average from both approaches the top 10 matches are:

DateLeagueHomeAwayAv 1Av 2Av
22ndEng Lge 2Newport CountyPlymouth14.4213.0813.75
22ndEng ChampRotherhamReading12.3313.7513.04
23rdIta Serie ARomaPalermo131313
22ndEng Lge 2WycombeBarnet13.7712.212.985
22ndEng Lge 2BlackpoolDoncaster13.8311.9212.875
22ndEng PremBournemouthTottenham1411.6312.815
22ndEng Lge 2LutonMansfield12.6712.7512.71
22ndEng Lge 1BradfordSheffield Utd14.7110.0712.39
23rdIta Serie AAtalantaInter Milan13.511.2512.375
23rdSpa PrimeraReal MadridAthletic Bilbao13.2511.512.375