Champions League: Matchday 3

The story so far – 8 bets, 4 wins, 8pts staked, +2.00pts

Bayern Munich have to be opposed based on historical results but this is tricky as they are much stronger now than they were previously. There have not been many meetings between Italian and German teams in the last few years but this could be the season that the Italian league starts to improve again in Europe. Athletic Bilbao are not performing too well at home but maybe they have a decent chance at Porto. Not too far to travel for them either.

On Wednesday Juventus look good value and have to take Liverpool against Madrid as Spanish teams have done very poorly in the group stages in England. Finally going with Monaco again at home against Benfica this time.

 

Roma v Bayern Munich – Roma +0.5 @ 2.00 with Bet365

Porto v Athletic Bilbao – Athletic Bilbao @ 5.75 with Bet Victor (6.0 is around with some bookmakers)

Olympiakos v Juventus – Juventus @ 2.05 with Bet365

Liverpool v Real Madrid – Liverpool +0.75 @ 1.82 with Bet365

Monaco v Benfica – Monaco @ 2.45 with Bet365

 

Champions League: Matchday 2 – Roundup

Matchday 2 results

Sporting v Chelsea – Sporting to win @ 5.25 with Bet365 – Lost (1-0) -1

PSG v Barcelona – PSG +0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365 – WIN (3-2) +0.95

Atletico Madrid v Juve – Atletico @ 2.2 with Bet365 – WIN (1-0) +1.2

Another pleasing week on this and a little cushion of profit. PSG were great winners over Barca and I chose the PSG +0.5 result as there was value with both the home win and the draw. The straight win would have been better but this is all about value

 

8 bets, 4 wins, 8pts staked, +2.00pts

 

Champions League: Matchday 2

The story so far – 5 bets, 2 wins, 5pts staked, +0.85pts

This week Chelsea look a little short at Sporting. Sporting haven’t started the season that well but have not lost with 2 wins and 4 draws. Portugal has not been a particularly happy place for English teams and a draw would not be a surprise. Similar(ish) story with Barcelona visiting PSG.

 

This week’s bets are below (all these bets will be 1pt)

Sporting v Chelsea – Sporting to win @ 5.25 with Bet365

PSG v Barcelona – PSG +0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365

edit (Tues AM):

adding one more as really there is enough scope on the Atletico price

Atletico Madrid v Juve – Atletico @ 2.2 with Bet365

WC2014 Roundup

There was no round up after the World Cup and it feels so long ago now. The final figures were

5 winners from 26 bets for a loss of  -9.19pts.

There were no bets for the 3rd/4th place playoff and the final as was away from the office but there would have been a loser in the former and a winner in the latter which would have increased the wins by a point at least. After the group stages the results were

2/17 :: -9.86

so it was the group stage that caused all the damage. 4 years is a long time to wait to correct these mistakes but the backing the draw in the knockout phase with certain filters would have turned a small profit.

 

 

The Mini Console is back

Since the start of the season there have been a number of users asking about the mini console. Always a fan of this console myself it’s back for the sheer simplicity. At the moment it will just be for corners and yellow cards but the Asian Handicap one is already planned and sketched out so hopefully should be there soon. More metrics can be added if requested.

Visit it here.

Champions League: Matchday 1 – Roundup

Matchday 1 results

Roma v CSKA Moscow – CSKA to win @ 7 with Bet365 – Lost (5-1) -1

Bayern Munich v Manchester City – Man City +0.75 @ 2.06 with Bet Victor – Lost/Void (1-0) -0.5

Benfica v Zenit – Zenit 0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365 – WIN (0-2) +0.95

Moncao v Bayer Leverkusen – Monaco to win @ 3.4 with Bet365 – WIN (1-0) +2.4

Dortmund v Arsenal – Arsenal to win @ 4.33 with Bet365 – LOSE (2-0) -1

5 bets, 2 wins, 5pts staked, +0.85pts

 

A good start and probably a bit of luck with Zent beating Porto and playing most of the game against 10 men but also slightly unlucky Man City did not hold on for a draw.

Champions League: Matchday 1 (Wednesday)

Decent start yesterday and will do the summary after the first round of matches.

Wednesday’s bets and all these bets will be 1pt

Roma v CSKA Moscow – CSKA to win @ 7 with Bet365

Bayern Munich v Manchester City – Man City +0.75 @ 2.06 with Bet Victor

Results from Tuesday

Benfica v Zenit – Zenit 0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365 – WIN (0-2) +0.95

Moncao v Bayer Leverkusen – Monaco to win @ 3.4 with Bet365 – WIN (1-0) +2.4

Dortmund v Arsenal – Arsenal to win @ 4.33 with Bet365 – LOSE (2-0)

Champions League: Matchday 1

Successfully had bets on the Champions League over the past few seasons based on an idea of the countries playing each other.

 

Tuesday’s bets and all these bets will be 1pt

Benfica v Zenit – Zenit 0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365

Moncao v Bayer Leverkusen – Monaco to win @ 3.4 with Bet365

Dortmund v Arsenal – Arsenal to win @ 4.33 with Bet365

 

User question: Betting on total corners

I  received a question the other day from a user who wanted to know how to use the stats for total corners betting. Rather than answer him directly I am adding the answer to the blog and this is something I will do in the future as well. He asked

“Any bets i would make would be over a certain amount of corners say 9 for example. So the kind of stats i was looking for was previous mayches between lets say Liverpool & Southampton who were playing today. So what i would be looking for would be previous matches between these two, how many corners were there? How many corners liverpool have in home games and southampton away. This gives me a base to make a prediction. What im basically looking to know, does this site have these stats?”

The short answer is yes we do have these stats. At the moment we don’t have historical corner accounts for matches just between these two teams at the moment. For example we can’t see the last 4 or 5 seasons that these teams played and the corner counts. However, I do have this information and this is something I will add to the page.

For total corners you have a few sections you can look at on the site. Tonight Chelsea play against Burnley and if you visit the corner console and set the season to Prev Only then we get all last season’s stats.

corner stats image

Top section of corner stats page

If we look at the section above we can see the top section with the data fron last season for both these teams. The summary boxes at the top give you the top line stats. So we can see that last season Chelsea away matches averaged 11.7 corners and this is similar to Burnley home matches that averaged 11.8 corners. For what it’s worth in a game like this with a big 4 team I would not be too interested in the stats of their opposition as more than likely the game will be controlled and dictated by Chesea.

The match by match section shows the totals in graphical form. This gives you a chance to see any games that are really high or really low and might have changed the average a lot. For example if you look at the Chelsea line (if you click in the key where it says Burnley match total it will remove this line and leave you just with Chelsea) you can see the three highest totals were 18 vs Man City and 17 away at Swansea and Liverpool. Interesting that two of their highest totals game away at the two teams that finished above them. That would indicate they have higher counts against better teams.

If you want to check any stats for a match you can look in the matches section and then click on the + sign at the end of any match and the statistics will appear in the middle. In the example above the match for Chelsea away at Cardiff has been clicked and you can see the corner totals in there.

Asian total corners boxes for total corner bettings

Asian total corners boxes for total corner betting

The main section for checking total corners and getting an idea of the odds needed is the ASIAN TOTAL CORNERS section which is shown above. You can move up and down this section and see how the lines look. Above I have looked at the 11 and 11.5 line. The Asian Handicap differs slightly from just total corners as there are only 2 outcomes. For example for this match Bet365 have the Asian Total Corners line at 11 and the price is 1.9 for over 11 and 1.9 for under 11. If the total corners for the match was 11 then you would have your stake returned. If we look at the line being 11 and Chelsea’s stats last season we can see that they played matches 19 matches away from home and in 7 of those they went under 11 corners and in 9 of those they went over 19 corners and in 3 they landed bang on 11 corners. In this case it would look like the over 11 line is better value as based on last seasons stats the equivalent price should be 1.78 but we can get 1.9 with Bet365. However, This is Chelsea against a small team and I would want to take that into account. For example if we exclude matches against the other teams in the top 4 we are left with 16 matches and in those 16 matches 7 were under 11 corners, 6 were over 11 corners and 3 were exactly spot on 11 corners.  So if we then look at games that were under 11 corners we have 7/13 matches (ignore the 3 draws in an Asian Handicap) which is 53.8% and equivalent to odds of 1.86 so pretty much what Bet365 offer with a tiny bit of value.

For the total corner line (not asian) if you wanted to back under 11 corners then it’s 7/16 matches which is around 43.5% and equivalent to odds of 2.29 but Bet365 only offer you a price of evens in the corners market on Over 11 corners. They offer 8.5 (15/2) on exactly 11 corners and that could well be the best value of the 3 choices.

Hope this is useful and if you have any follow ups please post as a comment.

 

The early goal catches the worm (Betting School)

Another Betting School article. This time one I originally wrote in April 2013. This one looks at goal times and the impact of an early goal.

The early goal catches the worm

 

I was struggling through Osasuna v Atletico Madrid and trying to find things to do other than watch the match when a goal was scored. The goal was scored in the 35th minute and I wondered what the likelihood of more goals was. Before the goal I had looked at the under 2.5 goal price and it was around 1.55 so goals certainly weren’t expected in large numbers.  Obviously this goal made over 2.5 more likely but was there a way of working out how much more likely?

 

I decided to do some research into it and that is what I am going the share with you. I have used the betexplorer.com  site as they provide odds for matches and the goal times if you click on the link to any match. I always like to look at the major leagues so I have used the Premier League, La Primera in Spain , Serie A in Italy, the Bundesliga in Germany and the French Ligue 1. For all these leagues I have used data from this season. I also added the Championship as there is no doubt more interest in English leagues amongst the readership. This season is heading towards the finish line but there is a lot of football still played in the summer so I have used the MLS in America and the J-League in Japan. For these two leagues I have used data from last season which ran throughout 2012.

 

The main market to look at in all this is the over/under 2.5 goal market as this is the classic goal line. Let’s see on average how many games from each of these leagues are over/under 2.5 goals and how many matches are included for each league in this study.

 

Total Over 2.5 Under 2.5
League Season Games Games % Games %
Eng Champ 2012-13 453 238 53% 215 47%
Eng Prem 2012-13 296 168 57% 128 43%
French Ligue 1 2012-13 290 131 45% 159 55%
German Bundesliga 2012-13 234 124 53% 110 47%
Italy Serie A 2012-13 288 141 49% 147 51%
Japan J-League 2012 306 158 52% 148 48%
Spain La Primera 2012-13 280 148 53% 132 47%
USA MLS 2012 323 165 51% 158 49%
Total 2470 1273 52% 1197 48%

 

Table 1. Number of matches for each league included in study and counts and percentages of games which were over or under 2.5 goals

 

Looking at the table the first thing that stands out is the number of games in the Premier League that have been over 2.5 goals.  I have no idea why, but would presume this is a blip as it is way ahead of all the other leagues. If you remove the Premier League and France from the data then all the rest are pretty consistent lying between 49% and 53%. The average is 52% across all these leagues and I always think this demonstrates why over/under 2.5 goals works so well in betting as the line is so close to 50%. You can see prices for the coming matches on the Bet365 website.

 

We want to look at the time of the first goal and see how that impacts on the over/under market; so let’s first look at the times of the first goal across the leagues  to get an idea of when it occurs. The results are shown in table 2.

 

League 0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+ 0-0
Eng Champ 18% 20% 14% 11% 10% 8% 13% 6%
Eng Prem 22% 19% 11% 13% 8% 7% 11% 9%
French Ligue 1 16% 19% 12% 14% 10% 8% 14% 8%
German Bundesliga 25% 14% 17% 14% 12% 4% 7% 8%
Italy Serie A 20% 17% 13% 10% 8% 9% 15% 8%
Japan J-League 19% 19% 11% 11% 12% 7% 14% 8%
Spain La Primera 22% 19% 17% 9% 7% 6% 13% 6%
USA MLS 21% 21% 11% 6% 10% 7% 16% 7%
Total 20% 19% 13% 11% 10% 7% 13% 7%

 

Table 2. Time of the first goal in matches, grouped in 10 minute brackets, as a percentage of the total matches

 

I was surprised by how many matches feature an early goal. Across all leagues on average 1 in 5 matches has a goal before the 10th minute. It feels like I never watch these matches, that’s for sure. The Bundesliga produces some odd figures having the highest percentage in the 0-10 bracket and the lowest in 11-20 but they probably average out like the others if you looked at 0-20 as a whole. If we know there are quite a lot of early goals let’s look at the 4 brackets from 0-40 minutes and see what impact the goal has on the over 2.5 goal expectancy.  The results are shown in table 3.

 

All 0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40
League O U O U O U O U O U
Eng Champ 53% 47% 75% 25% 71% 29% 75% 25% 55% 45%
Eng Prem 57% 43% 83% 17% 75% 25% 58% 42% 57% 43%
French Ligue 1 45% 55% 67% 33% 65% 35% 57% 43% 51% 49%
Ger’ Bundesliga 53% 47% 69% 31% 67% 33% 60% 40% 63% 38%
Italy Serie A 49% 51% 71% 29% 67% 33% 70% 30% 43% 57%
Japan J-League 52% 48% 90% 10% 72% 28% 62% 38% 46% 54%
Spain La Primera 53% 47% 74% 26% 66% 34% 69% 31% 42% 58%
USA MLS 51% 49% 71% 29% 72% 28% 68% 32% 45% 55%
Total 52% 48% 75% 25% 70% 30% 66% 34% 51% 49%

 

Table 3. Breakdown of matches which have over or under 2.5 goals based on the time the goal was scored. Goals are grouped in 10 minute brackets and ‘All’ is included to allow comparison.

 

Very interesting and some possible angles that could be exploited.  It is no surprise that if there is a goal in the first 10 minutes of a match  the likelihood of the game going over 2.5 goals is greatly increased. If we look at all matches the average is that it happens in 75% of matches, so if you got to the 10th minute of a match and a goal had been scored then you would want to be backing over 2.5 goals at a price better than 1.33 to get some value. I calculated that by converting 75% to decimal odds (1/0.75).

 

My view is that by using the odds required we can get a much better picture of the jump that occurs in the 10 minute brackets and this is shown in table 4.

 

Percentage Equivalent Odds
Minute Over Under Over Under
0-10 75% 25% 1.33 4.01
11-20 70% 30% 1.43 3.31
21-30 66% 34% 1.52 2.93
31-40 51% 49% 1.96 2.05
41-50 52% 48% 1.91 2.1
51-60 38% 62% 2.64 1.61

 

Table 4. Equivalent odds based on the percentages of matches that go over or under 2.5 goals based on the time bracket of the first goal

 

The table above shows very well the big drops in the percentage of games that go over 2.5 goals if a goal is not scored before the 30th minute, and then again after the 50th minute. I have charted the results as well in figure 1 to allow further analysis.

 

Figure 1. Line chart showing percentage of games over 2.5 goals based on time of 1st goal.

 

I wanted to visualise this data to see if it is easier to see the change, as from the table it looks to be steady but then dips drastically. In figure 1, I grouped the minutes in pairs (1-2, 3-4 etc) to lessen the spikes in the chart. The chart shows a steady gradual decline to just before the 30th minute and then there does seem to be a drop. The bigger and more clear drop is the next one just after half time and therefore the chances of over 2.5 occurring drops steeply after half time.

 

We have some basic facts but then there are some factors we should probably consider, such as if the team that scores first is the home team or the away team. In table 5, I have produced the same figures we have in table 3 but broken down by if the home team or the away team scored first.

 

All 0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40
League 1st O U O U O U O U O U
Eng Champ Hm 60% 40% 86% 14% 78% 22% 64% 36% 52% 48%
Aw 52% 48% 63% 37% 63% 37% 82% 18% 58% 42%
Eng Prem Hm 67% 33% 91% 9% 79% 21% 67% 33% 50% 50%
Aw 58% 42% 75% 25% 72% 28% 50% 50% 63% 37%
French Ligue 1 Hm 54% 46% 54% 46% 68% 32% 77% 23% 53% 47%
Aw 45% 55% 81% 19% 63% 38% 45% 55% 50% 50%
German Bundesliga Hm 60% 40% 74% 26% 67% 33% 53% 47% 53% 47%
Aw 55% 45% 58% 42% 67% 33% 64% 36% 71% 29%
Italy Serie A Hm 65% 35% 76% 24% 73% 27% 79% 21% 67% 33%
Aw 42% 58% 64% 36% 61% 39% 61% 39% 28% 72%
Japan J-League Hm 54% 46% 84% 16% 74% 26% 77% 23% 29% 71%
Aw 57% 43% 96% 4% 70% 30% 52% 48% 57% 43%
Spain La Primera Hm 63% 37% 83% 17% 81% 19% 85% 15% 36% 64%
Aw 51% 49% 65% 35% 50% 50% 57% 43% 50% 50%
USA MLS Hm 60% 40% 81% 19% 77% 23% 69% 31% 50% 50%
Aw 50% 50% 61% 39% 66% 34% 67% 33% 42% 58%
Total Hm 60% 40% 80% 20% 75% 25% 71% 29% 49% 51%
Aw 51% 49% 70% 30% 64% 36% 62% 38% 53% 47%

 

Table 5. Breakdown of matches which have over or under 2.5 goals based on the time the goal was scored and by which team. Goals are grouped in 10 minute brackets and ‘All’ is included to allow comparison.

 

The table is a little busy but if you start with the total line you immediately get a feel of what happens. If the home team score first then the likelihood of there being more goals is much more likely.

 

If the home team scores first before the 10th minute then in 8/10 matches the game goes on to have over 2.5 goals. Compare this to the away team scoring before the 10th minute and this drops to 7/10. Thinking of the equivalent decimal odds it would mean you would need on average odds of over 1.42 (1/0.7) on over 2.5 goals if the away team scored but just 1.25 (1/0.8) if the home team scores; and that is a big difference. Even if the home team scores between the 11th and 20th minutes there is still a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals.

 

I just want to have one more dig into this data and will stick with the home teams but group them in terms of odds.  I have made 4 brackets for the home team price which is less than 1.5, 1.5 to 1.99, 2-2.99, 3-3.99 and 4+.

 

0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40
Odds O U O U O U O U
<1.5 95% 5% 88% 12% 88% 13% 100% 0%
1.5-1.99 81% 19% 75% 25% 68% 32% 47% 53%
2.0-2.99 77% 23% 73% 27% 70% 30% 53% 47%
3.0-3.99 74% 26% 69% 31% 67% 33% 38% 62%
4+ 76% 24% 79% 21% 75% 25% 21% 79%
Total 80% 20% 75% 25% 71% 29% 49% 51%

 

Table 6. Breakdown of matches which have over or under 2.5 goals when the home team scores first based on  time the goal was scored and the pre-match odds of home team.

 

I grouped all the matches together to give a bigger sample size. Again there is the clear drop off as you pass the 30th minute and this is even more pronounced when the away team has a bigger price.

 

It is interesting in this group that in the matches where the home team was priced below 1.5 and they scored anytime before the 40th minute then over 90% (64 out of the 70 matches) were over 2.5 goals. This is a small sample but there looks likely to be a fair few goals even if the home favourite takes a while to get going.

 

Hopefully this will give you some added insight when a goal goes in. Thinking about the time that is was scored and by which team should enable you to make a decent decision on whether to back over or under 2.5 goals.