Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer Roundups

A small profit on these bets as Bale came up trumps. A reminder of the bets placed, not good when you see Dzyba and De Bruyne is below.

Top Goalscorer Choice (e/w at ¼ odds on 4 places) – Artyom Dzyba (currently 80/1), Kevin De Bruyne (currently 40/1) and Gareth Bale (currently 50/1) – All 1/4pt e/w


Griezmann was the clear winner with 6 goals and Bale tied with Nani, Ronaldo (both Portugal), Payet, Giroud (both France) and Morata. The each way part of the bet was a winner but split as there were 7 places. A £10 e/w bet should have returned £47.50 profit (£67.50 – (2 x £10)).

The stakes were 1/4pt e/w so 1.5 points staked overall and the profit was 0.19pts.

Spanish Segunda Playoffs

This is from the post last year on the blog

The prize of getting in La Primera is massive for the clubs in Spain so you get some very cagey matches. There is not a massive amount of data here as this has only been going for 4 seasons. It follows a similar format as the English playoffs and there are 2 semi-finals and a final but each tie is 2 legs including the final. The first leg, of the final and semi final, is the one to concentrate on as in all 12 first leg matches no team has scored more than 1 goal. 9 of the 12 matches have been under 1.5 goals and there have been four 0-0s, five 1-0s (3 to the home team and 2 to the away) and three 1-1 draws. The home team has won just 3 of the 12 matches.

Last year the mould was completely broken as Zaragoza and Girona played out a ludicrous opening set of matches and I would expect them to revert back to type this year. The table below shows all the matches

YearRoundTeam 1Agg.Team 21st leg2nd leg
10/11SFCelta de Vigo1–1 (4–5 p)Granada1–00–1 (a.e.t.)
10/11FinalGranada1–1 (a)Elche0–01–1
11/12SFHércules1–1 (a)Alcorcón1–10–0
12/13SFLas Palmas2–3Almería1–11–2 (aet)
13/14SFLas Palmas2-0Sporting Gijon1–01-0
13/14FinalCordoba1–1 (a)Las Palmas0–01–1
14/15SFValladolid1-1 (a)Las Palmas1-10-0
14/15SFZaragoza4-4 (h)Girona0-31-4
14/15FinalZaragoza3-3 (a)Las Palmas3-12-0

The updated stats are:

In all 18 first leg matches just twice has a team scored more than 1 goal. 9 of the 15 matches have been under 1.5 goals and there have been four 0-0s, five 1-0s (3 to the home team and 2 to the away) and three 1-1 draws. The home team has won just 4 of the 15 matches and only scored more than 1 goal once.

These matches are played on 8th and 9th June so will wait for more prices to come up and look for an under 2 goals double.


Europa League Round Up and it’s another winner

Sevilla win! An 8pt profit on the tournament.

Europa 2016

A summary of the bets

Sevilla 13.0 generally (15.0 with Corals) 1pt  WINNERS +12

Villarreal 26.0 generally 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT SF -1

Fiorentina 26.0 generally 1pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32 -2

Sporting Lisbon 41.0 generally (51.0 with Bet365) 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32 -1

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final


Won last year with Sevilla and again this year. Villarreal made the semis as well and until someone topples the Spanish clubs they really are too big price wise for this. Dortmund were such a strong favourite it didn’t make sense.

More again on this next year.

Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer

In just under 1 months time, on June 10th, the Euro 2016 finals start and it should be a decent tournament. It has a newly expanded format with 24 teams and that’s a big jump as previously there were just 16 and back when Demark won it in 1992 just 8 teams participated. This makes some of the stats from the past tournaments less valuable. The last 8 tournaments and then winners and top goalscorers are shown below.

YearWinnerRunner-upLosing semi-finalistsTop GoalscorerTeam pos
1984FranceSpainDenmark/PotugalPlatini (9)Won
1988NetherlandsSoviet UnionItaly/West GermanyVan Basten (5)Won
1992DenmarkGermanyNetherlands/SwedenLarsen/Riedle/Bergkamp/Brolin (3)3 x SF/1 Loser
1996GermanyCzech RepublicEngland/FranceShearer (5)SF
2000FranceItalyNetherlands/PortugalKluivert/Milosevic (5)SF
2004GreecePortugalCzech Republic/NetherlandsBaros (5)SF
2008SpainGermanyRussia/TurkeyVilla (4)Won
2012SpainItalyPortugal/EnglandMandžukić/Gómez/Balotelli/Ronaldo/Dzagoev/Torres (3)

There have been a couple of shocks in this tournament with Greece and Denmark winning and also the Czech Republic, the Soviet Union and Portugal have made the final. The outrights market is headed by France and Germany, who are both priced 7/2 and whilst they both have strong claims for the title there are 4 knockout matches to overcome to win. Spain at 11/2 are interesting and after that plenty have decent e/w prices. Those outrights will be revisited before the tournament starts.

Euro 2016 Betting Odds - William Hill

Euro 2016 Betting Odds – William Hill

A market that often appeals in these tournaments in the top goalscorer market. All the top goalscorers are shown in the table above and Euro 2012 is worth ignoring slightly as 6 players shared the top prize and with a measly total of just 3 goals. With the expanded tournament this time round and a fair few weaker teams in the mix the top goalscorer is probably going to need 5 or 6 goals to win it. In 1984 and 1988 the goalscorer came from the winning team but since then Villa in 2008 and Torres in 2012, both with Spain, are the only two players to win the tournament and top goalscorer honours.

Lewandowski was top goalscorer in qualifying with 13 goals, followed by Ibranhimovic with 11 and then Muller with 9 but qualifying goals have not historically translated into tournament goals. Muller and Ronaldo are favourites at 8/1 and are followed by Griezmann (12/1) and Lewandowski (16/1).

It’s hard to know who will start for some teams and this is reflected in the prices. France have Griezmann, Martial and Lacazette in the top 15 players and Spain have Costa, Morata and Alcacer between 25 and 33/1. I didn’t think Torres would even be considered to have a chance of going to the Euros but he has finished the season well and people in Spain are bringing up his name.

It’s worth looking at the last few top scorers and see who they scored their goals against.

Villa (2008) – Russia (3) and Sweden (1) = 4

Baros (2004) – Latvia (1), Netherlands (1), Germany (1) and Denmark (2) = 5

Kluivert (2000) – Denmark (1), France (1) and Yugoslavia (3) = 5

Milosevic (2000) – Slovenia (2), Norway (1), Spain (1) and Netherlands (1)

Shearer (1996) – Switzerland (1), Scotland (1), Netherlands (2) and Germany (1) = 5

All of the above players scored against some of the easier teams and each player had one match when they scored at least two goals. With the expanded tournament all teams now have at least one easy match. Having said that all games are tricky and teams may score 6 goals in topping a group but unlikely its more than that. The groups are listed below and shows number of goals scored (F) and conceded (A) by each team in qualification.

Group A – France (n/a as hosts), Romania F11 A2, Albania F10 A5, Switzerland F24 A8

France are the favourites here, the host nation and up against Romania, Albania and Switzerland which is why Griezmann is such short odds and if he is the penalty taker for France his price of 12/1 is probably fair. Romania were very tight at the back in qualifying especially away from home so don’t expect many goals against them.

Group B – England F31 A3, Russia F21 A5, Wales F11 A4 and Slovakia F17 A8

Harry Kane could get a few goals here and any Wales goals are likely to come from Bale. He is 66/1 with some bookmakers and he has scored in big games for Madrid this season and could easily get 3 or 4 in the group. Russia have Artyom Dzyba who has a goal every other game for Russia and at 80/1 looks worth a speculative e/w bet.


Group C – Germany F24 A9, Ukraine F14 A4, Poland F33 A10 and Northern Ireland F16 A8

I suspect people will be looking at Northern Ireland to leak some goals and they let in 8 goals during qualifying. However, Poland let in 10 and Germany 9 and of sides qualifying for the tournament only the Czech Republic, who leaked 13 goals, let in more than those 2. This could be the highest scoring group.

Group D – Spain F23 A3, Czech Republic F19 A14, Turkey F14 A9 and Croatia F20 A5.

Spain let in just 3 goals in qualifying and they will keep the ball and keep scores down. They also have no fixed option upfront so tricky to know who they will go with but this group could have goals aside from them as Czech Republic, mentioned above, let in more than any other finalist in qualifying.

Group E – Belgium F24 A5, Italy F16 A7, Republic of Ireland F19 A7 and Sweden F15 A9

Belgium have lost Kompany but centre-back depth is not a problem for them, although full-backs might be. Italy, you’d expect to tighten up in the finals but with Republic of Ireland and Sweden someone here could get some goals. De Bruyne as 50/1 and has scored some important goals for Manchester City but will Hazard be on the penalties? Belgium are another team that you would want to see how they setup as if De Bruyne plays behind the forward with freedom he could easily get some goals.

Group F – Portugal F11 A5, Iceland F17 A6, Austria F22 A5 and Hungary F11 A9

Ronaldo could easily get a hatrick against one of these teams and come out of the group with 4 goals and a very good chance of the golden boot. You’d expect him to get a few and his price is likely to shorten so it might be better to back him on the exchanges with a few to trade out after the group stages and lock in some profit or a free bet.


Top Goalscorer Choice (e/w at ¼ odds on 4 places) – Artyom Dzyba (currently 80/1), Kevin De Bruyne (currently 40/1) and Gareth Bale (currently 50/1) – All 1/4pt e/w

Better prices can be obtained at some bookmakers but these prices are fair.

Europa League Semi Finals

Villarreal and Sevilla are avoided each other in the draw and both have a decent chance of making the final. Sevilla’s poor away form could trip them up and they have started to look tired as the season comes to an end. 5pts have been staked on this tournament and whether it is worth covering a Shakhtar v Liverpool final is the one point worth debating. The price on that is anything between 4.1 and 4.4 so would have to stake 1.5pts to cover. If Villarreal make the final it’s a guaranteed payout as they were bet each way at 26.0 so if they lose in the final its a 6.5pt return for a +2pt profit. Liverpool are 1.57 to qualify so there seems little option in backing them to cover Villarreal.

The safest option is to cover them both losing but the small profit for Villarreal reaching the final might be eroded so I’ll leave them running.

A summary of the bets

Sevilla 13.0 generally (15.0 with Corals) 1pt NOW BEST PRICE 3.1

Villarreal 26.0 generally 0.5pt e/w NOW BEST PRICE 5.1

Fiorentina 26.0 generally 1pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

Sporting Lisbon 41.0 generally (51.0 with Bet365) 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final

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Tweeted Stats Round Up (Feb and Mar 2016)

The under bets for March took a big whack and now overall the tweeted bets are showing a loss. The full results are here but again these are to average prices and not to best prices. As we get later on in the season there are generally more goals so hopefully the over 2.5 stats can come strong and get back into profit.

Over 2.5 recorded a profit in both months and a high strike rate.

MonthBet TypeWonLostP/LSRCum P/L
Feb-16Over 2.518120.7160%0.71
Feb-16Under 2.51481.2564%1.96
Feb-16Win HT/FT0100%1.96
Mar-16Over 2.51130.7979%2.75
Mar-16Under 2.566-3.2150%-0.46
Mar-16Win HT/FT100%100-0.46

Euro 2016: the stats that show England CAN win the competition

England will once again carry the weight of expectation from an entire nation into this summer’s European Championship in France. And while England sides have failed to emulate the heroes of 1966, Roy Hodgson’s men are capable of going all the way to the final this year – and here’s why.

Okay so first things first, England have a talented squad. They very rarely perform at their best but when they do, they can beat anyone – as shown in their recent come-from-behind victory over Germany in Berlin. England showed great resilience and courage to come from two-nil down to snatch a memorable win and Hodgson’s men will need to rely on that sort of attitude throughout the summer.

And while talent can only get you so far, the Three Lions have enough quality and experience to compete for the crown. As of April 7th, England are valued at 9/1 in Betway’s Euro 2016 betting markets this summer and Hodgson’s men stand a great chance – particularly if they remain solid defensively.

England conceded just three goals during qualifying and their stout defence will need to perform well for Hodgson’s men to go all the way. And with Joe Hart, Chris Smalling and Nathaniel Clyne all in great form for their respective club sides, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see England keep a number of clean sheets throughout the tournament.

LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 27: Harry Kane of England celebrates after scoring on his debut during the EURO 2016 Qualifier match between England and Lithuania at Wembley Stadium on March 27, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Ian Walton/Getty Images)

In addition, England’s exploits in attack didn’t go unnoticed and Hodgson’s men have shown they can score goals for fun. While it would be foolish to read too much into England’s high-scoring victories over the likes of San Marino, they managed to hold their nerve and earn convincing wins against Estonia and Slovenia in very hostile environments.

If Hodgson gets his squad selection right, England have enough quality to challenge France, Germany and Spain. If not, they could crash out in the group stages – just as they did at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Roy Hodgson’s legacy as England manager will be defined by their performance this summer and the former Liverpool boss will be desperate to lead England to the latter stages at the very least.

While the attacking and defensive statistics suggest that England can win the tournament, we all know that it’s never as straightforward as that. The Three Lions will have to prove their talents against Europe’s major players this summer and with the likes of Germany, France and Spain in contention, Hodgson’s men could find it tough. But IF they perform at their best, Wayne Rooney could well be lifting a major trophy – 50 years on from England’s incredible victory in the 1966 World Cup.

Europa League Last 8

Sevilla and Villarreal both made it through to the last day and Villarreal got a nice draw in Sparta Prague. Sevilla have to face Athletic Bilbao which is a tricky match but they are favourites to get through. Borussia Dortmund are now just a best priced 2.75 to win the trophy which seems ridiculously short when they have 2 rounds to get through before the one off of the final.


Dortmund v Liverpool is the pick of the round and should be a fascinating contest. Shaktar Donetsk look to be the dark horse and are now back playing in their season again and have survived the winter break.


A summary of the bets

Sevilla 13.0 generally (15.0 with Corals) 1pt NOW BEST PRICE 7.0

Villarreal 26.0 generally 0.5pt e/w NOW BEST PRICE 8.0

Fiorentina 26.0 generally 1pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

Sporting Lisbon 41.0 generally (51.0 with Bet365) 0.5pt e/w KNOCKED OUT LAST 32

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final