Tweeted stats for week ending 12th April

Realised that last week I included matches played on the Monday in the stats round up which is wrong so have started this weeks round up on Tuesday. Positive results and the over and under bets, which are the only ones we have prices for, have both been profitable. Come the end of the season I’ll do some analysis to compare the prices available against the implied odds to see if any games could be filtered out where the value was not that big.

 

Results summary here and last weeks results below

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
7-4Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 16/19 + Montpellier (a) 11/14 = 27/33 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.610-0Win0.610.61
8-4Under 2.5 Today - Granada (h) 11/14 + Celta Vigo (a) 11/15 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.591-1Win0.591.2
8-4Over 2.5 Today - Raith Rovers (h) 14/16 + Cowdenbeath (a) 12/16 = 26/32 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.631-3Win0.631.83
10-4Under 2.5 Today - Crucero del Norte (h) 4/4 + Atletico Rafaela (a) 3/4 = 7/8 (88%) - implied odds of 1.1401-1Win01.83
10-4Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 11/12 + Sydney FC (a) 6/11 = 17/23 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3700-3Win01.83
10-4BTTS + win Today - FC Dallas (h) 13/22 + Colorado (a) 8/19 = 21/41 (51%) - implied odds of 1.9800-4Lost01.83
11-4BTTS Today - San Lorenzo (h) 2/4 + Independiente (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost01.83
11-4Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 18/20 + Tranmere (a) 13/20 = 31/40 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.61-0Win0.62.43
11-4Over 2.5 Today - San Lorenzo (h) 3/4 + Independiente (a) 3/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost02.43
11-4Over 2.5 Today - Bayern Munich (h) 10/17 + Eintracht Frankfurt (a) 11/13 = 21/30 (72%) - implied odds of 1.391.343-0Win0.362.79
11-4Win HT/FT Today - Racing Club (h) 3/4 + Huracan (a) 2/4 = 5/8 (63%) - implied odds of 1.6002-0Lost02.79
11-4BTTS + win Today - Racing Club (h) 2/4 + Huracan (a) 2/4 = 4/8 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0002-0Lost02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Boca Juniors (h) 2/4 + Nueva Chicago (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Groningen (h) 9/14 + Cambuur (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3303-2Win02.79
12-4BTTS Today - Argentinos Juniors (h) 2/4 + River Plate (a) 4/4 = 6/8 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-2Win02.79
12-4Under 2.5 Today - Torino (h) 11/14 + Roma (a) 13/17 = 24/31 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.61-1Win0.63.39
12-4BTTS + win Today - Boca Juniors (h) 2/4 + Nueva Chicago (a) 2/4 = 4/8 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0000-0Lost03.39

Tweeted stats for week ending 6th April

9/12 bets were winners. Full results are shown here  and it would be interesting to know prices of some of the other bets such as Win HT/FT based on the success.

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
2-4Under 2.5 Today - US Avellino (h) 12/17 + Modena (a) 13/16 = 25/33 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.521-0Win0.520.52
3-4BTTS Today - Sarmiento de Junín (h) 4/4 + Belgrano de Cordoba (a) 6/12 = 10/16 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-3Win00.52
3-4Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 15/18 + Saint Etienne (a) 11/15 = 26/33 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.451-1Win0.450.97
3-4Over 2.5 Today - Sarmiento de Junín (h) 4/4 + Belgrano de Cordoba (a) 8/12 = 12/16 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2001-3Win00.97
3-4Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 14/19 + Bristol City (a) 13/19 = 27/38 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.921-1Lost-1-0.03
4-4Over 2.5 Today - Dordrecht (h) 9/14 + Heracles Almelo (a) 11/14 = 20/28 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.642-3Win0.640.61
4-4Over 2.5 Today - Leon (h) 10/13 + Queretaro (a) 9/14 = 19/27 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4204-5Win00.61
5-4BTTS Today - Bursaspor (h) 9/12 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 11/13 = 20/25 (80%) - implied odds of 1.2503-0Lost00.61
5-4Over 2.5 Today - Galatasaray (h) 12/15 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 8/12 = 20/27 (73%) - implied odds of 1.361.694-2Win0.691.3
6-4BTTS Today - Dartford (h) 17/20 + Barnet (a) 15/21 = 32/41 (78%) - implied odds of 1.2800-1Lost01.3
6-4Under 2.5 Today - Brondby (h) 9/11 + FC Copenhagen (a) 9/10 = 18/21 (86%) - implied odds of 1.1600-0Win01.3
6-4Over 2.5 Today - Brentford (h) 14/20 + Nottingham Forest (a) 15/20 = 29/40 (73%) - implied odds of 1.381.652-2Win0.651.95

Tweeted stats for week ending 29th March

A short week but a winning one. All 6 bets were winners.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
24-3Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 13/18 + Rochdale (a) 14/18 = 27/36 (75%) - implied odds of 1.331.963-0Win0.960.96
28-3BTTS Today - Perth Glory (h) 10/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 7/11 = 17/22 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2903-2Win00.96
28-3BTTS Today - Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (h) 9/12 + Independiente (a) 9/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-2Win00.96
28-3Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 10/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 6/11 = 16/22 (73%) - implied odds of 1.3803-2Win00.96
28-3Over 2.5 Today - Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (h) 9/12 + Independiente (a) 8/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4102-2Win00.96
28-3BTTS + win Today - Perth Glory (h) 5/11 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 5/11 = 10/22 (45%) - implied odds of 2.2003-2Win00.96

 

 

Tweeted stats for week ending 22nd March

Got a bit behind with these stats but will catch up over the next few days. As some leagues begin to wind down the number of goals scored should increase and hopefully more winners for Over 2.5 goals.

 

This wasn’t a good week.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
17-3Over 2.5 Today - Alfreton Town (h) 11/17 + Lincoln (a) 14/17 = 25/34 (74%) - implied odds of 1.361.690-0Lost-1-1
17-3Over 2.5 Today - Raith Rovers (h) 10/12 + Hearts of Midlothian (a) 8/13 = 18/25 (72%) - implied odds of 1.381.821-3Win0.82-0.18
20-3Under 2.5 Today - Lanus (h) 8/12 + Gimnasia La Plata (a) 12/12 = 20/24 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2002-0Win0-0.18
21-3Over 2.5 Today - Montrose (h) 11/14 + Berwick Rangers (a) 8/12 = 19/26 (73%) - implied odds of 1.381.660-2Lost-1-1.18
21-3Win HT/FT Today - Atletico Madrid (h) 13/18 + Getafe (a) 6/13 = 19/31 (59%) - implied odds of 1.6902-0Win0-1.18
22-3BTTS Today - Trabzonspor (h) 11/12 + Akhisar Belediyespor (a) 8/11 = 19/23 (82%) - implied odds of 1.2202-0Lost0-1.18
22-3Under 2.5 Today - Mordovia Saransk (h) 7/8 + Lokomotiv Moscow (a) 7/8 = 14/16 (88%) - implied odds of 1.1400-0Win0-1.18
22-3Under 2.5 Today - Tenerife (h) 14/15 + Osasuna (a) 10/14 = 24/29 (82%) - implied odds of 1.211.462-1Lost-1-2.18
22-3Under 2.5 Today - Aalborg (h) 9/11 + Sonderjyske (a) 9/11 = 18/22 (82%) - implied odds of 1.2201-4Lost0-2.18
22-3Over 2.5 Today - Trabzonspor (h) 10/12 + Akhisar Belediyespor (a) 9/11 = 19/23 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2102-0Lost-13.18
22-3Over 2.5 Today - Barcelona (h) 12/17 + Real Madrid (a) 13/18 = 25/35 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.392-1Win0.39-2.79
22-3Over 2.5 Today - Feyenoord (h) 10/14 + PSV Eindhoven (a) 9/13 = 19/27 (70%) - implied odds of 1.421.672-1Win0.67-2.12
22-3Over 2.5 Today - Lazio (h) 10/13 + Hellas Verona (a) 9/14 = 19/27 (71%) - implied odds of 1.421.682-0Lost-1-3.12
22-3BTTS + win Today - Trabzonspor (h) 8/12 + Akhisar Belediyespor (a) 4/11 = 12/23 (52%) - implied odds of 1.9402-0Lost0-3.12

 

 

Tweeted stats for week ending 15th March

A small loss on the week for these stats and will be better at the end of the season to be able to take a look at all the results.

 

Prices recorded are only those available from football-data.co.uk

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
9-3Under 2.5 Today - Karlsruher SC (h) 9/11 + RB Leipzig (a) 8/11 = 17/22 (77%) - implied odds of 1.291.560-0Win0.560.56
13-3Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 14/16 + SC Bastia (a) 11/13 = 25/29 (86%) - implied odds of 1.161.563-0Lost-1-0.44
14-3BTTS Today - Perth Glory (h) 9/10 + Wellington Phoenix (a) 7/10 = 16/20 (80%) - implied odds of 1.2501-2Win0-0.44
14-3BTTS Today - Cagliari (h) 11/13 + Empoli (a) 8/12 = 19/25 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3201-1Win0-0.44
14-3Under 2.5 Today - Sonderjyske (h) 7/9 + Silkeborg IF (a) 8/10 = 15/19 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2701-4Lost0-0.44
14-3Over 2.5 Today - Perth Glory (h) 9/10 + Wellington Phoenix (a) 7/10 = 16/20 (80%) - implied odds of 1.2501-2Win0-0.44
14-3Over 2.5 Today - Port Vale (h) 11/17 + Swindon (a) 13/17 = 24/34 (71%) - implied odds of 1.421.860-1Lost-1-1.44
14-3Win HT/FT Today - Atromitos (h) 6/11 + Panthrakikos (a) 8/12 = 14/23 (61%) - implied odds of 1.6502-0Win0-1.44
15-3Under 2.5 Today - Aalen (h) 9/12 + Erzgebirge Aue (a) 10/12 = 19/24 (79%) - implied odds of 1.261.573-0Lost-1-2.44
15-3Under 2.5 Today - Waasland Beveren (h) 10/14 + Lokeren (a) 12/14 = 22/28 (79%) - implied odds of 1.271.80-0Win0.8-1.64
15-3Over 2.5 Today - Manchester Utd (h) 10/14 + Tottenham (a) 11/13 = 21/27 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.743-0Win0.74-0.9
15-3Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 12/16 + Levante (a) 7/13 = 19/29 (64%) - implied odds of 1.5502-0Win0-0.9
15-3Win to Nil Today - Porto (h) 11/16 + Arouca (a) 6/12 = 17/28 (59%) - implied odds of 1.6801-0Win0-0.9

Tweeted stats for week ending 8th March

A losing week again for the tweeted stats. The both teams to score stats have been weak and they look to be a difficult way to predict results. The over 2.5 stats have had a bad time as well but they are still in profit, although that is mainly down to the fact that I am unable to record prices from some of the leagues that have lost. Will keep this going until the end of the season and then can break it down by leagues etc.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
2-3BTTS Today - Trabzonspor (h) 10/11 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 6/10 = 16/21 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3303-2Won00
2-3Over 2.5 Today - Trabzonspor (h) 9/11 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 6/10 = 15/21 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.763-2Won0.760.76
2-3BTTS + win Today - Trabzonspor (h) 7/11 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 3/10 = 10/21 (47%) - implied odds of 2.1403-2Won00.76
3-3Over 2.5 Today - Watford (h) 12/17 + Fulham (a) 12/17 = 24/34 (71%) - implied odds of 1.421.561-0Lost-1-0.24
6-3Over 2.5 Today - Wellington Phoenix (h) 5/9 + Adelaide United (a) 8/9 = 13/18 (72%) - implied odds of 1.3802-0Lost0-0.24
7-3BTTS Today - Brechin City (h) 11/12 + Airdrie Utd. (a) 7/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost0-0.24
7-3BTTS Today - Zwolle (h) 8/12 + Cambuur (a) 10/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3306-1Won0-0.24
7-3Under 2.5 Today - Tenerife (h) 13/14 + Leganes (a) 10/14 = 23/28 (82%) - implied odds of 1.221.481-0Won0.480.24
7-3Over 2.5 Today - Augsburg (h) 9/11 + VfL Wolfsburg (a) 8/11 = 17/22 (77%) - implied odds of 1.291.671-0Lost-1-0.76
7-3Over 2.5 Today - Mouscron (h) 9/14 + Westerlo (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.331.921-0Lost-1-1.76
7-3Over 2.5 Today - Zwolle (h) 8/12 + Cambuur (a) 9/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.786-1Won0.78-0.98
8-3Under 2.5 Today - Aalborg (h) 9/10 + Randers FC (a) 8/10 = 17/20 (85%) - implied odds of 1.1802-1Lost0-0.98
8-3Under 2.5 Today - U. de G. (h) 11/12 + U.A.N.L (a) 10/15 = 21/27 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2602-1Lost0-0.98

Tweeted Stats for week ending 1st March

A losing week for the tweeted stats and the profit is dwindling slightly. However, still in profit and it’s the both teams to score stats that are struggling.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
23-2Win HT/FT Today - Midtjylland (h) 5/9 + Odense (a) 6/9 = 11/18 (61%) - implied odds of 1.6403-0Win00
23-2BTTS + win Today - Midtjylland (h) 5/9 + Odense (a) 4/9 = 9/18 (50%) - implied odds of 2.0003-0Lost00
23-2BTTS + win Today - Fenerbahce (h) 5/10 + Akhisar Belediyespor (a) 4/9 = 9/19 (47%) - implied odds of 2.1201-2Lost00
24-2Over 2.5 Today - Torquay (h) 9/15 + Lincoln (a) 13/16 = 22/31 (71%) - implied odds of 1.420-Postponed00
27-2BTTS Today - Galatasaray (h) 9/13 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 9/11 = 18/24 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3203-1Win00
27-2BTTS Today - Newcastle Jets (h) 7/8 + Central Coast Mariners (a) 5/8 = 12/16 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost00
27-2Under 2.5 Today - Ajaccio GFCO (h) 11/13 + Orleans (a) 9/12 = 20/25 (80%) - implied odds of 1.251.4623-2Lost-1-1
27-2Under 2.5 Today - Vestsjaelland (h) 5/8 + Sonderjyske (a) 8/9 = 13/17 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3200-1Won0-1
28-2Under 2.5 Today - Lorient (h) 9/13 + SC Bastia (a) 10/12 = 19/25 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.622-0Win0.62-0.38
28-2Over 2.5 Today - Bristol City (h) 9/16 + Rochdale (a) 13/15 = 22/31 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.811-0Lost-1-1.38
28-2Over 2.5 Today - Cambuur (h) 7/12 + Heracles Almelo (a) 10/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.661-0Lost-1-2.38
1-3Under 2.5 Today - Odense (h) 6/8 + FC Copenhagen (a) 7/8 = 13/16 (81%) - implied odds of 1.2301-0Won0-2.38
1-3Under 2.5 Today - Randers FC (h) 5/8 + Silkeborg IF (a) 8/9 = 13/17 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3201-2Lost0-2.38
1-3Under 2.5 Today - Akhisar Belediyespor (h) 7/11 + Istanbul Buyuksehir Belediyespor (a) 9/10 = 16/21 (77%) - implied odds of 1.301.770-2Won0.77-1.61

Tweeted stats for week ending 22nd February

Results for the stats tweeted last week. All stats have scores and whether they won or lost but only over and under stats have prices and the prices are the average price recorded at football-data.co.uk.

A losing week for the stats but overall they are still in profit 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
21-2BTTS Today - Dartford (h) 14/16 + Gateshead (a) 10/15 = 24/31 (77%) - implied odds of 1.300-Postponed00
21-2BTTS Today - Preston (h) 9/14 + Scunthorpe (a) 12/14 = 21/28 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-0Lost00
21-2BTTS Today - Annan Athletic (h) 8/12 + Arbroath (a) 10/12 = 18/24 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-0Lost00
21-2BTTS Today - Melbourne City (h) 6/8 + Perth Glory (a) 6/8 = 12/16 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3300-0Lost00
21-2Under 2.5 Today - Mallorca (h) 9/13 + Osasuna (a) 9/11 = 18/24 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.553-0Lost-1-1
21-2Over 2.5 Today - Heracles Almelo (h) 8/11 + FC Utrecht (a) 10/12 = 18/23 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.541-1Lost-1-2
21-2Over 2.5 Today - Kortrijk (h) 8/13 + Westerlo (a) 11/13 = 19/26 (73%) - implied odds of 1.371.626-0Win0.62-1.38
21-2Over 2.5 Today - Aberdeen (h) 8/12 + Saint Mirren (a) 9/12 = 17/24 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.773-0Win0.77-0.61
21-2Over 2.5 Today - Albion Rovers (h) 8/13 + East Stirling (a) 8/10 = 16/23 (71%) - implied odds of 1.411.720-1Lost-1-1.61
21-2Win HT/FT Today - Paris Saint Germain (h) 10/16 + Toulouse (a) 8/13 = 18/29 (62%) - implied odds of 1.6103-1Win0-1.61
22-2BTTS Today - Sonderjyske (h) 6/8 + Hobro IK (a) 8/9 = 14/17 (82%) - implied odds of 1.2201-0Lost0-1.61
22-2Under 2.5 Today - Tenerife (h) 12/13 + Real Valladolid (a) 9/13 = 21/26 (81%) - implied odds of 1.241.522-0Win0.52-1.09

Tweeted stats for week ending 15th February

Results for the stats tweeted last week. All stats have scores and whether they won or lost but only over and under stats have prices and the prices are the average price recorded at football-data.co.uk.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
9-2Over 2.5 Today - Lazio (h) 8/10 + Genoa (a) 8/10 = 16/20 (80%) - implied odds of 1.251.870-1Lost-1-1
10-2BTTS Today - Exeter City (h) 12/15 + Cambridge (a) 10/14 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3202-2Win0-1
10-2Over 2.5 Today - Oldham (h) 9/13 + Swindon (a) 11/14 = 20/27 (74%) - implied odds of 1.351.932-1Win0.93-0.07
13-2BTTS Today - Newcastle Jets (h) 6/7 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 4/7 = 10/14 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4001-1Win0-0.07
13-2Under 2.5 Today - Queretaro (h) 8/11 + Cruz Azul (a) 9/10 = 17/21 (81%) - implied odds of 1.2301-2Lost0-0.07
13-2Over 2.5 Today - Newcastle Jets (h) 6/7 + Western Sydney Wanderers (a) 4/7 = 10/14 (71%) - implied odds of 1.4001-1Lost0-0.07
14-2BTTS Today - Brechin City (h) 8/9 + Morton (a) 9/12 = 17/21 (82%) - implied odds of 1.2201-1Win0-0.07
14-2BTTS Today - Akhisar Belediyespor (h) 6/10 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 9/10 = 15/20 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3301-0Lost0-0.07
14-2BTTS Today - Latina (h) 8/12 + Pescara (a) 10/13 = 18/25 (72%) - implied odds of 1.3902-0Lost0-0.07
14-2Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 13/15 + Montpellier (a) 9/12 = 22/27 (81%) - implied odds of 1.240-Postponed0-0.07
14-2Under 2.5 Today - Nantes Atlantique (h) 9/12 + SC Bastia (a) 9/11 = 18/23 (78%) - implied odds of 1.281.460-2Win0.460.39
14-2Under 2.5 Today - Sochaux (h) 11/12 + Nancy (a) 7/11 = 18/23 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.490-2Win0.490.88
14-2Under 2.5 Today - Sheffield Wednesday (h) 12/15 + Brighton (a) 11/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.301.550-0Win0.551.43
14-2Under 2.5 Today - York (h) 12/15 + Tranmere (a) 10/14 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.321.552-0Win0.551.98
14-2Over 2.5 Today - Raith Rovers (h) 8/10 + Falkirk (a) 8/11 = 16/21 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.692-2Win0.692.67
14-2Over 2.5 Today - Dumbarton (h) 8/11 + Cowdenbeath (a) 8/11 = 16/22 (73%) - implied odds of 1.381.541-2Win0.543.21
14-2Over 2.5 Today - Peterborough (h) 9/15 + Rochdale (a) 12/14 = 21/29 (73%) - implied odds of 1.371.872-1Win0.874.08
14-2Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 11/13 + Deportivo La Coruna (a) 4/10 = 15/23 (62%) - implied odds of 1.6002-0Win04.08
15-2Win to Nil Today - Benfica (h) 8/12 + Vitoria Setubal (a) 6/10 = 14/22 (63%) - implied odds of 1.5803-0Win04.08

Villarreal, a temporadon and the Europa League

In a couple of weeks time the Champions League starts again and so does it’s lower key cousin the Europa League. There are 32 teams left and so they have to squeeze in one more round than the Champions League between now and the final. There is a massive prize at stake for the winner this year with direct entry into the Champions League as well as the trophy.

The Europa League has run in it’s current format for 5 seasons and the winners have been Atletico Madrid twice, Porto, Chelsea and Sevilla. Those teams come from Portugal, Spain and England and those countries have provided 16 of the 20 semi-finalists in those 5 tournaments. It therefore seems a bit odd that in the betting for this tournament it’s Napoli, Roma, Liverpool, Wolfsburg and Inter Milan as the top 5 teams. Sevilla are the shortest price Spanish team at around 16/1. Spain are the European powerhouse at the moment and they have proven that in the Europa League and previously in the UEFA cup. Of the last 11 finals spanning those 2 competitions a Spanish team has taken the trophy in 6 of them and they have also provided a losing finalist in a couple.

6 of the last 11 winners were Spanish! That’s pretty staggering and the league does not seem to have weakened this year and in actual fact may even have got better. Sevilla are 16/1, Villarreal 20/1 and Athletic Bilbao 28/1 and all of them have to be some value based on those facts.

villarreal

After their game at the weekend Marcelino was talking in the press conference and said from his point of view the season Villarreal are having is a temporadon. This is just another way of saying an excellent season and you would have to agree with him. Copa del Rey semi-finalists and they are In the group of 3, with Sevilla and Valencia, that are fighting for that 4th Champions League spot. They have been on a an excellent run of late and when they lost to Barcelona on 1st February it was their first league defeat since 2nd November including a 1-0 win in the Calderon against Atleti. 20/1 looks far too big on them and looks worth a bet.

Athletic Bilbao are also in the Copa del Rey semi finals and 28/1 looks very big on them as well. The Champions League was a step too far for them and they did not have the class or experience to compete properly.

Athletic qualified by coming in 3rd place I their Champions League group but that is no real advantage in terms of the Europa League. 9 of he 20 semi finalists in the last 5 years came from the Champions League so there is no real evidence that either method of arriving at the knockout stages is better.

The other countries that have done well are England and Portugal. English teams are often poor value in Europe but Spurs at 20/1 look more value than Liverpool at 14/1 and even have a member of last years winning team in their squad with Fazio.

The only team from Portugal in the Europa League is Sporting Lisbon, who lie 3rd in the Portuguese League. Although they are 3rd they have lost just one game in the league this season and drawn both matches with Benfica and once with Porto so at 33/1 with the Portuguese history in this also look very interesting. 4 of the 10 finalists in the last 5 years have come from Portugal so they have the form to do it.

There are 32 teams still to play in this and the draw may not be kind as they progress through the tournament so it probably makes sense to cover a few teams and see where you end up.

 

My personal choices will be

Villarreal @ 20/1 with Tote, VC, Fred and BF Sportsbook (2pts)

Sevilla @ 19/1 with Bwin (1pt)

Sporting Lisbon @ 33/1 with VC and Coral (1pt)

Athletic Bilbao @ 28/1 with BF Sportsbook and Ladbrokes (1/2pt)

Totttenham @ 16/1 with most (1/2pt) – Coral have them at 20/1 but no-one else is close to that