Champions League: Matchday 5 – Roundup

Cashback! A great night for the tips and this approach has done very well for a number of years and is one I firmly believe in. Matchday 3 was a low point with a 5 point loss but that is now forgotten with this full house netting 8.9pts. Faith and perseverance are important in betting although it is always wise to remember this quote from David Brent

Quitters never win, winners never quit. But those who never win and never quit are idiots.

 

Matchday 5 results

CSKA Moscow v Roma – Draw @ 3.5 with Bet365, Sky, Victor and Corals – WON (1-1) +2.5

Bayer Leverkusen v Monaco – Monaco @ 6 with most – WON (1-0) +5

Arsenal v Dortmund – Arsenal @ 2.4 with Bet365, Sky, Victor, SJ and Hills – WON (2-0) +1.4

17 bets, 8 wins, 14pts staked, +6.75pts

Champions League: Matchday 5

14 bets, 5 wins, 14pts staked, -2.15pts

3 bets this time round and I have completely excluded Bayern Munich from this as they are completely different to how they have been historically and are far stronger than any other German teams. Monaco have featured a few times this season and be nice if they could grab an away win.

 

CSKA Moscow v Roma – Draw @ 3.5 with Bet365, Sky, Victor and Corals

Bayer Leverkusen v Monaco – Monaco @ 6 with most

Arsenal v Dortmund – Arsenal @ 2.4 with Bet365, Sky, Victor, SJ and Hills

Team stats page

Someone sent me an email asking how the team stats page works. I replied and also thought I may as well post here if anyone else needs to know.
If I look at the page for over 2.5 goals you see this as the top two rows
Date League Home (matches) Away (matches) Home Over % Away Over % Av % Eq. Odds
22nd Nov Eng Prem Everton (5) West Ham (5) 80.0% 100.0% 90.0% 1.11
22nd Nov Bel Jupiler Lokeren (8) Westerlo (8) 75.0% 87.5% 81.3% 1.23
After the name of the team you can see the number of matches so in this case we see Everton (5) and that means the 5 Everton home matches
H – A Date vs (current position) Res
1 Nov 14 Swansea (5) 0-0 +
18 Oct 14 Aston Villa (16) 3-0 +
21 Sep 14 Crystal Palace (17) 2-3 +
30 Aug 14 Chelsea (1) 3-6 +
23 Aug 14 Arsenal (6) 2-2 +

It only includes home games for the home team and away games for the away team.

The Scottish football stat that proves competition there is dead

It has gone somewhat unnoticed and under the radar this week but a quick check of the Scottish Premiership table reveals a couple of surprising names at the top.

Celtic, surely?  I hear you ask. Well, no. Sitting pretty in first place after 12 games are, in fact, Dundee United. A point behind in second is, of course, Celtic… Got to be, right? Well, er, actually, wrong again.

The mighty Hamilton are in second place with Celtic having to settle for third at the moment.

Now, before you think I’m going to be making a case for a shock winner of the title north of the border this season and talk enthusiastically about the demise of the Hoops, I’ll stop you right there.

Yes the table has an unfamiliar look about it and, yes, things have not quite gone as well as Celtic boss Ronny Deila would have liked so far in 2014-15 but this is no time for either the Terrors or the Accies to start celebrating finally breaking the Old Firm SPL monopoly because, sadly, unromantically and simply put, it aint gonna happen. It’s a safe verdict that a quick check of the Scottish football betting odds will back up.

So, that damning statistic that hopefully drew you in in the headline is this:

No other club, apart from Rangers or Celtic, has triumphed overall in the Scottish top flight since 1985.

That’s 29 years. Twenty-nine. A whole generation has grown up, probably got married, bought a house and is now worried about some unwelcome grey hairs as they approach their third decade since someone other than the big two from Glasgow came out on top. Aberdeen’s victory back then came during what must surely be looked back upon as a ‘golden age’ for Scottish football with the Dons also securing the title the year before, while United had won it in 1983.

However, since then, nothing. Nothing for Motherwell, Hibs, Hearts or even Inverness Caledonian Thistle to get overly excited about because, as most football fans know, the title ‘race’ in Scotland has been contested by just two horses since then and, since Rangers’ recent demise in 2012 due to financial problems, only one.

Celtic are that far ahead of the rest of the pack – both on and off the pitch – that they will eventually go on to win the title, probably in April, by a margin in excess of 10 points. And they will achieve this without ever really needing to be at their best with a squad full of some journeymen European players, a sprinkling of genuine young talent and a smattering of experienced old heads who know what it takes to see off the ‘challenge’ of other clubs to finish top. Namely, not an awful lot.

Yes, football is unpredictable at times. Celtic may even lose 1-0 at home to St Johnstone, Partick or St Mirren in January and for a brief moment other clubs might fancy their chances. Then reality will bite and normal service will be resumed.

Because normal service in Scotland means that only either Celtic and Rangers ever win the title nowadays. That damning stat proves it. Dundee United and Hamilton might be enjoying their week in the top spots but even they know it won’t last.

Champions League: Matchday 4 – Roundup

Matchday 4 results

Benfica v Monaco – Benfica @ 1.85 with several inc Sky, VC, PP, Lads – WON (1-0) +0.85

Benfica left it pretty late but got the goal that was needed

14 bets, 5 wins, 14pts staked, -2.15pts

 

Loved this run from Marco Reus for his goal against Galatasaray. He makes the first pass and then sets off on a fantastic run to find the through ball, splitting the two centre backs so they are both a few paces behind him.

Champions League: Matchday 4

The story so far – 13 bets, 4 wins, 13pts staked, -3.00pts

Just one this midweek which is Benfica to beat Monaco as the Portuguese have done well at home to French teams.

 

Benfica v Monaco – Benfica @ 1.85 with several inc Sky, VC, PP, Lads

Champions League: Matchday 3 – Roundup

Matchday 3 Results

Roma v Bayern Munich – Roma +0.5 @ 2.00 with Bet365 – Lost (7-1) -1

Porto v Athletic Bilbao – Athletic Bilbao @ 5.75 with Bet Victor (6.0 is around with some bookmakers) Lost (2-1) -1

Olympiakos v Juventus – Juventus @ 2.05 with Bet365 – Lost (1-0) -1

Liverpool v Real Madrid – Liverpool +0.75 @ 1.82 with Bet365 Lost (3-0) -1

Monaco v Benfica – Monaco @ 2.45 with Bet365 – Lost (0-0) -1

13 bets, 4 wins, 13pts staked, -3.00pts

 

Calamitous. A complete wipeout and this quote to boot

“There have not been many meetings between Italian and German teams in the last few years but this could be the season that the Italian league starts to improve again in Europe”

A resounding no is the answer to that.

Champions League: Matchday 3

The story so far – 8 bets, 4 wins, 8pts staked, +2.00pts

Bayern Munich have to be opposed based on historical results but this is tricky as they are much stronger now than they were previously. There have not been many meetings between Italian and German teams in the last few years but this could be the season that the Italian league starts to improve again in Europe. Athletic Bilbao are not performing too well at home but maybe they have a decent chance at Porto. Not too far to travel for them either.

On Wednesday Juventus look good value and have to take Liverpool against Madrid as Spanish teams have done very poorly in the group stages in England. Finally going with Monaco again at home against Benfica this time.

 

Roma v Bayern Munich – Roma +0.5 @ 2.00 with Bet365

Porto v Athletic Bilbao – Athletic Bilbao @ 5.75 with Bet Victor (6.0 is around with some bookmakers)

Olympiakos v Juventus – Juventus @ 2.05 with Bet365

Liverpool v Real Madrid – Liverpool +0.75 @ 1.82 with Bet365

Monaco v Benfica – Monaco @ 2.45 with Bet365

 

Champions League: Matchday 2 – Roundup

Matchday 2 results

Sporting v Chelsea – Sporting to win @ 5.25 with Bet365 – Lost (1-0) -1

PSG v Barcelona – PSG +0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365 – WIN (3-2) +0.95

Atletico Madrid v Juve – Atletico @ 2.2 with Bet365 – WIN (1-0) +1.2

Another pleasing week on this and a little cushion of profit. PSG were great winners over Barca and I chose the PSG +0.5 result as there was value with both the home win and the draw. The straight win would have been better but this is all about value

 

8 bets, 4 wins, 8pts staked, +2.00pts

 

Champions League: Matchday 2

The story so far – 5 bets, 2 wins, 5pts staked, +0.85pts

This week Chelsea look a little short at Sporting. Sporting haven’t started the season that well but have not lost with 2 wins and 4 draws. Portugal has not been a particularly happy place for English teams and a draw would not be a surprise. Similar(ish) story with Barcelona visiting PSG.

 

This week’s bets are below (all these bets will be 1pt)

Sporting v Chelsea – Sporting to win @ 5.25 with Bet365

PSG v Barcelona – PSG +0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365

edit (Tues AM):

adding one more as really there is enough scope on the Atletico price

Atletico Madrid v Juve – Atletico @ 2.2 with Bet365