Are match stats any use?

Today some alerts were set up for twitter to send some tweets when certain stats are good. The reason why this has started is because on Monday night the Napoli v Genoa match has a strong BTTS (both teams to score) and home win stat. The is what was tweeted.

btts tweet

 

 

Late in the game Napoli bagged a late goal and won 2-1 landing this bet and the odds were 3.3 and no the 2.25 in the previous post. This particular stat was way higher than what you normally expect. Two teams who both had BBTS in plenty of matches but also Napoli winning those matches at home and Genoa losing them away.

 

Seemed like a good idea to add some checks in the database to look for other games like this. Did so and this one popped up today as well as an arse wipe reply.

arse wipe

 

None of these stats are recommendations to bet. There is no profit and loss on them but rather they are a way for people to see some strong stats they may or may not want to look into. If people don’t like it they really don’t have to look at them.

Using Football Stats to Achieve a 100% Success Rate (Guest Article)

Rooney

licence by  nasmac  Caption: Manchester United’s Wayne Rooney

There might not be any certainties in life, but when it comes to betting on soccer you can get pretty close to perfection if you learn how to hedge your bets. Knowing the game well enough to understand the odds being presented to you by a betting exchange is a vital skill. However, once you’ve figured the perennial performers and eternal losers in soccer leagues you’re betting on, the process of picking a winner becomes a lot easier.

Of course, when it comes to soccer betting, the dynamics of a game are constantly changing and that means you need to stay on top of the numbers. Through a combination of general knowledge about the game and analysis of the hard facts (i.e. numerical data), you can improve your expected value (EV) enough that making a profit is easy.

It’s All About EV

In fact, improving your EV is the only thing you should be concerned about as a soccer gambler. Knowing that you’re able to make the best decisions in every situation is the sole aim for any professional gambler because they know that once they’ve made a +EV bet, the money will follow. While this doesn’t mean you’ll win every single soccer bet you place, it does mean you’ll make an overall profit if all your bets are +EV.

Thanks to the rise of modern betting apps and computer software, it’s now possible to make a guaranteed profit betting on soccer. By taking away the laborious task of running the numbers, crunching the data and coming to a conclusion, online betting apps have made it possible for punters to always make +EV bets.

Going Green

One such method that’s become possible through a combination of betting exchanges and modern technology is “greening up“. Used to describe the process of simultaneously betting on both sides of a soccer fixture to ensure a profit, this technique has only really been possible in the last few years thanks to online sports betting exchanges such as betfair.

In a nutshell, greening up takes advantage of the movement of odds within a sports betting exchange. If you’re able to identify a team that you think will win a match and, importantly, one that’s odds won’t drift (get worse) then you’re able to “green up”. Basically, you want the odds to shorten for the team you’ve picked to win.

If this happens, then you can back the other side of the bet (lay against the team) and secure a guaranteed profit thanks to the difference in returns between the two bets. For example, let’s say you backed Manchester United at the start of the week to beat QPR on Saturday. Given that it’s a relatively early bet you managed to stake £10 at 4/1 (5.00) on United winning the game.

Using Numbers to Your Advantage

At this point you believe United’s odds will shorten, so you look to make a lay bet. However, you need to know how much you need to stake. When it comes to greening up, it’s good to back high and lay low. So let’s assume you want to lay at odds of 3/2 (2.50). To quickly work out how much you need to stake on your lay bet, you can simply take the return if your backed bet wins (in this case £50) and divide it by the lay odds. However, if this is too much like hard work then you can use an online calculator.

Plugging in these numbers, you’d need to place a lay bet of £28 in order to achieve an £18 profit on this bet. Sound too good to be true? Well, it isn’t. Although there may be some commission to pay on winning bets, it’s possible to use your knowledge of soccer, take some stats and crunch some numbers in order to lock up a profit regardless of how a team performs on the pitch.

Chelsea’s Unbeaten Run in Context

Chelsea’s defeat at Newcastle United on Saturday may have seen their quest to become ‘invincibles’ and go the length of the Premier League season unbeaten come to an end but their achievement should not be underestimated. In starting the season in such fine form the Blues have opened up a three point cushion at the top of the table and, despite Saturday’s defeat, they will still be confident of winning the league for the first time since 2009/10.  A quick look at the odds would suggest that most punters still fancy the Blues too, with Betfair offering 1/2 and, if you stake £10 now, you could earn £30 of free bets.

Mourinho

Image by: In Mou We Trust 

‘Invincibles’

We all know that Arsenal were the last team to be crowned ‘invincibles’ in 2003/04 and that they went on to win the league that year by 11 points from Chelsea but, after 15 games they were actually in a worse position than Chelsea are now. Despite not having lost, Arsenal were second in the table after 15 games, one point behind Chelsea, and they had only amassed 35 points. Chelsea are currently sitting on 36 points.

No Repeat for Arsene

Since the ‘Invincibles’ of 2003/04 two teams (other than Chelsea this season) have managed to start the campaign with a run of 14 unbeaten Premier League matches. In 2007/08 Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal were at it again, this time managing to go on a 15 game unbeaten run before, like Mourinho’s side, coming unstuck in the North East, losing 2-1 at Middlesboro. That season the Gunners tailed off, eventually finishing third behind Manchester United and Chelsea.

Everything to Play For

If Jose Mourinho is looking for inspiration he would do well to avoid looking back at Arsenal’s 2007/08 decline and should, instead focus on a more recent season. In 2011/12 Roberto Mancini’s Manchester City went 14 games unbeaten before a 3-2 defeat at Stamford Bridge. Unlike Arsene Wenger’s team, however, City were able to recover and eventually won the Premier League on goal difference from Manchester United. Whilst Mourinho will certainly be hoping that this season is not as tight a finish, he should take comfort in City’s achievement and remind his players that although the record may have gone, they still have everything to play for.

 

Dafabet odds on the site

Since pinnacle decided to stop offering odds to UK punters I have had to search for an alternative odds supplier. It was a case of looking at which bookmakers offered an odds feed that are reputable and offer decent prices.

The one chosen was dafabet and looking through the matches this weekend they are very competitive and are better priced than Pinnacle on a number of the Asian Handicap markets. This now means all users have Dafabet and 5Dimes prices and non-UK users also still have Pinnacle.

 

Dafabet are sponsors of Aston Villa which probably helped in their decision to stick in the UK market when a number of the other Asian firms pulled out. To open an account with Dafabet click here.

Site Abbreviations

From time to time I receive emails from people asking what various abbreviations mean on the site. It makes sense to make a blog post that lists them and which can be added to and referred to.

 

General Metrics

BTTS – Both teams to score. Bookmakers often offer markets based on both teams to score and combine it with other bets such as both teams to score and one team to win.

 

Corner Metrics

P – Played which is matches played.
F – For which is corners for the selected team.
A – Against which is corners against the selected team (corners they have conceded).
TOT – Total corners
XC – Cross corners which is home team corners x away team corners
HC – Home corners – corners for the home team
AC – Away corners – corners for the away team
TC – Total corners
CD – Corner difference which is home corners – away corners
Will add abbreviations to this any time they are requested.

Champions League: Matchday 6 – Roundup

Great way to round this off with a profit. Got the draw in the Juve game although Atletico continued to drift and were backable at 5.3 before the game.

Juventus v Atletico Madrid – Draw @ 3.1 with VC, WH, Lads and others – WON (1-1) +2.1

Roma v Manchester City – Roma @ 2.5 with Bet365, Lads, WH and BF – LOST (0-2) -1

At the end of the group stages this has again turned a tidy profit and very pleasing. The knockout is a whole different ball game and what patterns used to exist were blown out of the water last year with the group winners completely dominating.

 

19 bets, 9 wins, 19pts staked, +7.85pts

 

 

Champions League: Matchday 6

The story so far – 17 bets, 8 wins, 14pts staked, +6.75pts

 

Last matchday of the group stages and a couple more bets. Chelsea and Shaktar both look value but neither of those games means anything for them so I’ll swerve those and stick to games that mean something.

 

Juventus v Atletico Madrid – Draw @ 3.1 with VC, WH, Lads and others

Roma v Manchester City – Roma @ 2.5 with Bet365, Lads, WH and BF

 

The Juventus game is interesting as the draw has been hammered right in to 3.1. Olympiakos have the edge over Juve in the H2H which I think is the first way they decide the groups and if Olympiakos win and Juve lose then Juve could go out. A draw suits Juve and also lets Atletico top the group, but really Juve have to want to top the group as that means you avoid Bayern, Real Madrid, Chelsea and PSG/Barca. It’s one of those games where if the draw keeps crashing then the value on the win part is much bigger. Atletico will settle for the draw late on and Juve might not search out a winner but the rest, you’d expect to a proper contest.

Juve have lost twice already and were 2-1 down at home to Olympiakos before winning 3-2 and Serie A still hasn’t shown itself to be a strong league compared to the rest of Europpe and the 4.33 on Atleti is starting to appeal and if they go out to 4.5 I think  there’s big value there.

As It Stands: Who Are The Favourites And Do The Stats Back Them Up?

Mourinho

Are the stats in favour of Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea?

cc by  Ronnie Macdonald 

It’s still relatively early days in the Premier League but, as we run up to Christmas, we can take a lot from some of the performances so far. We might be just about a third of the way through, however, a lot of what the teams are already telling us could dictate positions after 38 matches.

As with any league in football, things can quickly change. The Premier League isn’t known as one of the most exciting in the world due to constant one-horse or two-horse races. There is always competition for the top, be it from the old guard or a new team trying to break into the English elite.

As we’ve seen so far, many of the bigger clubs are already asserting themselves but surprise packages – such as Southampton, West Ham and Swansea – are also vying for top-four places. Whether they can maintain or improve their form into the murky depths of the season remains to be seen, whereas we know the likes of Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal, for example, can use their strength in depth when push comes to shove.

Top-spot holders Chelsea are firm favourites and the obvious choice. Don’t just listen to me though, the betting tips that can be found at betting.betfair agree. They’re 3/10 on, with closest rivals and current title holders City way back at 9/2. United are at 20/1, Arsenal at 49/1 and the odds get more and more distant from there.

Looking at the current league, will the biggest scorers get the chance to run away with it or will those with a tight ship be able to come good in the New Year?

 

Goalscorers

The Champions League places are in perfect order of goals scored. Riding high are Chelsea with 30, City with 27 and Southampton and United joint with 24. Eleventh-place Everton are an anomaly with 23 goals putting them joint-fifth with West Ham in the ‘goals for’ stakes. But typically goals mean points.

Diego Costa

Chelsea’s Diego Costa scores goals for fun

ccby  cfcunofficial

City’s Sergio Aguero leads the individual stats with a stunning 12 goals so far and he is closely followed by Chelsea’s Diego Costa with 11. The top-two teams have the top-two finishers and again that shows the correlation between finding the net and league success.

 

Keeping them out

Third-place Southampton have kept themselves in the running by not conceding many up until a 3-0 drubbing by City last weekend. In 13 games, they haven’t yet reached double figures in goals against, with only nine getting past their defence and first-choice goalkeeper Fraser Forster. This is indicative of how they’ve played and how deserving they are of the spot. Top-place Chelsea have conceded 11, with second-place City conceding 13.

Oddly, neither the first-place nor second-place teams feature in the top three for clean sheets. Southampton’s Forster rides high with seven in the league, meaning he has conceded in less than half of his matches so far. Swansea are holding on to a decent spot with six clean sheets. The fractured nature of clean sheets shows that while defence is key, it is goalscoring that is the main player in 2014.

Chelsea are scoring in abundance and keeping their goals against tally down low. Though it’s not always a clean sheet, they can rely on their firepower to deliver when they need it to get them out of trouble. An uninspiring performance recently against Sunderland shouldn’t change things too much. What they’re doing is working and the smart money would be on the London side this year. It just so happens that the numbers agree.

Champions League: Matchday 5 – Roundup

Cashback! A great night for the tips and this approach has done very well for a number of years and is one I firmly believe in. Matchday 3 was a low point with a 5 point loss but that is now forgotten with this full house netting 8.9pts. Faith and perseverance are important in betting although it is always wise to remember this quote from David Brent

Quitters never win, winners never quit. But those who never win and never quit are idiots.

 

Matchday 5 results

CSKA Moscow v Roma – Draw @ 3.5 with Bet365, Sky, Victor and Corals – WON (1-1) +2.5

Bayer Leverkusen v Monaco – Monaco @ 6 with most – WON (1-0) +5

Arsenal v Dortmund – Arsenal @ 2.4 with Bet365, Sky, Victor, SJ and Hills – WON (2-0) +1.4

17 bets, 8 wins, 14pts staked, +6.75pts

Champions League: Matchday 5

14 bets, 5 wins, 14pts staked, -2.15pts

3 bets this time round and I have completely excluded Bayern Munich from this as they are completely different to how they have been historically and are far stronger than any other German teams. Monaco have featured a few times this season and be nice if they could grab an away win.

 

CSKA Moscow v Roma – Draw @ 3.5 with Bet365, Sky, Victor and Corals

Bayer Leverkusen v Monaco – Monaco @ 6 with most

Arsenal v Dortmund – Arsenal @ 2.4 with Bet365, Sky, Victor, SJ and Hills