La Segunda Playoffs

After the madness of the final day of the season in the Spanish Segunda, where 90th minute goals decided promotion and relegation, we are left with the playoffs.  You can see how it all happened with the highlights on the Liga Adelante youtube page

 

 

 

The prize of getting in La Primera is massive for the clubs in Spain so you get some very cagey matches. There is not a massive amount of data here as this has only been going for 4 seasons. It follows a similar format as the English playoffs and there are 2 semi-finals and a final but each tie is 2 legs including the final. The first leg, of the final and semi final, is the one to concentrate on as in all 12 first leg matches no team has scored more than 1 goal. 9 of the 12 matches have been under 1.5 goals and there have been four 0-0s, five 1-0s (3 to the home team and 2 to the away) and three 1-1 draws. The home team has won just 3 of the 12 matches.

 

Looking at the odds around over 2.5 appeals but most of all the under 2 goals looks the pick of the bets.  Bet Victor offer 1.98 on both the first legs being under 2 goals and Pinnacle offer 1.99 and 1.97 so the double can be backed at 3.92 which looks decent value in that none of the previous 12 first leg matches have gone over 2 goals. If either game has 2 goals then that bit will be a push/void.

 

Double of under 2 goals in both first leg matches @ 3.92 with Bet Victor and Pinnacle

 

Full Results

YearRoundTeam 1Agg.Team 21st leg2nd leg
10/11SFCelta de Vigo1–1 (4–5 p)Granada1–00–1 (a.e.t.)
10/11SFValladolid2–3Elche1–01–3
10/11FinalGranada1–1 (a)Elche0–01–1
11/12SFHércules1–1 (a)Alcorcón1–10–0
11/12SFCórdoba0–3Valladolid0–00–3
11/12FinalAlcorcón1–2Valladolid0–11–1
12/13SFAlcorcón2–4Girona1–11–3
12/13SFLas Palmas2–3Almería1–11–2 (aet)
12/13FinalGirona0–4Almería0–10–3
13/14SFLas Palmas2-0Sporting Gijon1–01-0
13/14SFCordoba2-1Murcia0–02-1
13/14FinalCordoba1–1 (a)Las Palmas0–01–1

Tweeted stats for week ending 7th June

There will not be weekly roundups of these stats now but rather just monthly ones as less leagues are playing. Also The Both Teams To Score and Both Teams To Score And Win stats will now be removed and won’t be tweeted again as they had a strike rate of 58% which is probably a bit too low.

 

A full roundup of the stats will take place in a week or so.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
1-6Under 2.5 Today - Lanus (h) 5/6 + Olimpo de Bahia Blanca (a) 5/7 = 10/13 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2902-0Win00
5-6BTTS Today - Gimnasia La Plata (h) 5/7 + Union de Santa Fe (a) 5/6 = 10/13 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2905-2Win00
7-6BTTS Today - Rosario Central (h) 5/6 + Independiente (a) 5/7 = 10/13 (77%) - implied odds of 1.2901-1Win00
7-6BTTS Today - Atletico Rafaela (h) 6/6 + Nueva Chicago (a) 4/7 = 10/13 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2702-0Lost00

Europa League Winner

Sevilla won the Europa League and a big profit overall. Advised bets were

 

dnipro-vs-sevilla-winners-and-losers-from-2015-europa-league-final_1

15th February

Villarreal @ 20/1 with Tote, VC, Fred and BF Sportsbook (2pts)

Sevilla @ 19/1 with Bwin (1pt)

Sporting Lisbon @ 33/1 with VC and Coral (1pt)

Athletic Bilbao @ 28/1 with BF Sportsbook and Ladbrokes (1/2pt)

Totttenham @ 16/1 with most (1/2pt) – Coral have them at 20/1 but no-one else is close to that

 

15th May

Dnipro @ 3.75 with Bet Victor (2pts)

 

13pts profit on the Sevilla win and that’s now 7 of the last 12 Europa League winners coming from Spain. Not convinced that trend will continue next year as there are now 5 Spanish teams in the Champions League and unless any of them don’t progress from the group their UEFA cup entrants are might not be strong enough.

Tweeted stats for week ending 31st May

2 winners and 2 losers for this but no prices available for the matches that were playoffs etc such as the Serie B match. The Spanish Segunda finishes this weekend and there will be a roundup then and less tips sent.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
30-5Under 2.5 Today - Union de Santa Fe (h) 6/7 + Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (a) 5/6 = 11/13 (85%) - implied odds of 1.1801-0Win00
30-5Under 2.5 Today - Virtus Entella (h) 16/21 + Modena (a) 17/21 = 33/42 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2702-2Lost00
30-5Under 2.5 Today - Belgrano de Cordoba (h) 4/7 + Gimnasia La Plata (a) 6/6 = 10/13 (79%) - implied odds of 1.2700-1Win00
31-5Under 2.5 Today - Aldosivi (h) 4/6 + Racing Club (a) 6/6 = 10/12 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2001-2Lost00

Tweeted stats for week ending 24th May

A bit behind on all this and will catch up.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
22-5Under 2.5 Today - Crucero del Norte (h) 6/6 + Defensa y Justicia (a) 4/6 = 10/12 (83%) - implied odds of 1.2003-1Lost00
22-5Under 2.5 Today - Niort (h) 12/18 + Laval (a) 16/18 = 28/36 (78%) - implied odds of 1.292.050-3Lost-1-1
22-5Win to Nil Today - Troyes (h) 11/18 + Chateauroux (a) 11/18 = 22/36 (61%) - implied odds of 1.6404-1Lost0-1
23-5BTTS Today - Kasimpasa (h) 11/16 + Kayseri Erciyesspor (a) 13/16 = 24/32 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3303-3Win0-1
23-5Under 2.5 Today - Mechelen (h) 10/15 + Lokeren (a) 13/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.3002-1Lost0-1
23-5Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 17/24 + Getafe (a) 10/18 = 27/42 (63%) - implied odds of 1.5803-3Lost0-1

Tweeted stats for week ending 17th May

Great week for the tweeted stats with 6/7 winning. The League Two playoff was a winner but don’t have the odds for that.

 

Monaco

 

Monaco were a very big price for under 2.5 and you would expect more goals at this time of the season but luckily not in the games selected. The full results can be seen here and the last weeks results are below.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
11-5Under 2.5 Today - Karlsruher SC (h) 11/15 + SV Darmstadt 98 (a) 12/15 = 23/30 (77%) - implied odds of 1.301.590-1Win0.590.59
13-5BTTS + win Today - Trabzonspor (h) 9/15 + Bursaspor (a) 5/15 = 14/30 (47%) - implied odds of 2.1401-0Lost00.59
14-5Under 2.5 Today - Southend (h) 21/23 + Stevenage (a) 14/23 = 35/46 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3101-1Win00.59
16-5BTTS Today - Varese (h) 15/20 + Pescara (a) 15/20 = 30/40 (75%) - implied odds of 1.3302-1Win00.59
16-5Under 2.5 Today - Monaco (h) 19/23 + Metz (a) 13/18 = 32/41 (77%) - implied odds of 1.292.012-0Win1.011.6
16-5Under 2.5 Today - Virtus Entella (h) 15/20 + Latina (a) 16/20 = 31/40 (78%) - implied odds of 1.291.672-0Win0.672.27
17-5Under 2.5 Today - Torino (h) 13/17 + Chievo (a) 14/17 = 27/34 (79%) - implied odds of 1.261.772-0Win0.773.04

 

 

 

Europa League round up

On 15th February there were recommendations for the Europa League outrights which were

 

Villarreal @ 20/1 with Tote, VC, Fred and BF Sportsbook (2pts)

Sevilla @ 19/1 with Bwin (1pt)

Sporting Lisbon @ 33/1 with VC and Coral (1pt)

Athletic Bilbao @ 28/1 with BF Sportsbook and Ladbrokes (1/2pt)

Totttenham @ 16/1 with most (1/2pt) – Coral have them at 20/1 but no-one else is close to that

 

The draw was a bit of a pain as Sevilla getting Villarreal scuppered those big bets.

Altogether there was a 5pt outlay and if Sevilla go on to win that would be a 14pt profit. Sevilla are big favourites to lift the trophy so it makes sense to probably cover any possible losses here. Bet Victor offer 3.75 on Dnipro to lift the trophy (apparently Boyle’s are offering 4.2 but I can’t believe that or that anyone would be able to get any money on at that price). A simple 2 point bet on Dnipro at 3.75 guarantees no loss.

 

vidal

 

If Sevilla win the tournament then it’s a 13pt profit and if Dnipro do then it’s an 0.5pt profit and a bit of disappointment.

Dnipro @ 3.75 with Bet Victor (2pts)

Tweeted stats for week ending 10th May

A small profit on the week. Will track these until the end of May and then do a summary.

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
9-5Over 2.5 Today - Bursaspor (h) 10/14 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 10/14 = 20/28 (71%) - implied odds of 1.401.567-1Win0.560.56
9-5BTTS + win Today - Bursaspor (h) 6/14 + Kardemir Karabukspor (a) 7/14 = 13/28 (46%) - implied odds of 2.1507-1Win00.56
10-5Under 2.5 Today - RC Lens (h) 12/17 + Montpellier (a) 14/17 = 26/34 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.790-1Win0.791.35
10-5Over 2.5 Today - PSV Eindhoven (h) 13/16 + Heracles Almelo (a) 13/16 = 26/32 (81%) - implied odds of 1.231.262-0Lost-10.35

Tweeted stats for week ending 3rd May

Not a good week for the stats as they lost 2 points on under bets. As the season nears the end there are more goals as games mean less, but these are still in profit to the average prices recorded at football-data.co.uk

 

DateTweetOddsScoreResultP/LCum P/L
29-4Win HT/FT Today - Real Madrid (h) 16/21 + Almeria (a) 10/17 = 26/38 (68%) - implied odds of 1.4803-0Win00
1-5Under 2.5 Today - Sochaux (h) 13/17 + Niort (a) 13/17 = 26/34 (76%) - implied odds of 1.311.682-3Lost-1-1
3-5BTTS Today - SK Sturm Graz (h) 11/15 + Rapid Vienna (a) 11/14 = 22/29 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3202-2Win0-1
3-5Under 2.5 Today - Modena (h) 15/19 + Carpi (a) 15/19 = 30/38 (79%) - implied odds of 1.271.561-2Lost-1-2
3-5Under 2.5 Today - U. de G. (h) 14/16 + Veracruz (a) 10/15 = 24/31 (77%) - implied odds of 1.3001-2Lost0-2
3-5Under 2.5 Today - FK Amkar Perm (h) 8/12 + Lokomotiv Moscow (a) 11/13 = 19/25 (76%) - implied odds of 1.3201-1Win0-2

Can Manchester United win the Premier League next season?

Manchester United have been much improve this year under new manager Louis Van Gaal and currently sit in the Champions League places with just a few matches left to play. The Red Devils have played some exquisite football in the second half of the campaign, and recent went on a six match winning run – beating the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City. We take a look at this United squad and give our thoughts on whether they can compete for the title next season or if Van Gaal needs one more years before they can regain their crown.

 

 

They have performed well in the big games this year

 

On the whole, United have been excellent in the key matches this season. They have beaten Liverpool twice and also picked up wins against Manchester City and Arsenal. Furthermore, they earned an impressive draw against Chelsea earlier in the campaign and recently, they were narrowly beaten by the Blues despite many predicting that Van Gaal’s side would pick up all three points. If the Red Devils can continue to pick up victories over their rivals next year, then they will stand a great chance of winning their 14th Premier League title.

 

 

 

They will be active in the transfer market

 

United must invest heavily in the summer transfer window if they are to challenge for silverware next season. Despite a much improved year, there are still obvious problems in the squad and it would be no surprise to see Van Gaal bring three or four players in over the summer. At the very least, the Red Devils need a commanding central defender, a box-to-box midfielder and a clinical striker. If United can lure the likes of Memphis Depay, Mats Hummels and Ilkay Gundogan to Old Trafford, they will be very difficult to beat next year.

 

 

 

Louis Van Gaal is eyeing up a title before he retires

 

The Dutchman has two years remaining on his contract at Old Trafford and has already revealed that he intends to win the Premier League title with the club. United are more than capable of challenging for the league, and Van Gaal has adapted quickly to the Premier League’s style. The 63-year-old has started to build a strong team at Old Trafford, and it would be foolish to think that United won’t be major challengers next season. With a couple of incoming transfers, the Red Devils will push Chelsea for their crown.