Europa League

The Europa League has been very kind to us and we have had the winner in the last 2 seasons. You can see all the Europa League posts here.

The Europa League has run in it’s current format for 7 seasons and the winners have been Atletico Madrid twice, Porto, Chelsea and Sevilla 3 times. Those teams come from Portugal, Spain and England and those countries have provided 20 of the 28 semi-finalists in those 7 tournaments.

There are no Portuguese teams in it this year so can be ignored. Spain are the European powerhouse at the moment and they have proven that in the Europa League and previously in the UEFA cup. Of the last 13 finals spanning those 2 competitions a Spanish team has taken the trophy in 8 of them and they have also provided a losing finalist in a couple. This year they probably don’t have as strong a hand as they have in the past with Bilbao, Celta and Villarreal but still should be respected. Villarreal have been drawn with Roma and Celta with Shakhtar and in both those ties the non-Spanish team is favourite.

The English clubs, Man United and Spurs, are favourites and Man United are a ridiculously short price at 5.5 when they need to get through 4 rounds before the final. Dortmund were similarly short last year and got beaten in the last 8. This tournament is not an easy one to win especially as later on in the season other priorities come into place. Spurs gave up in this last season and concentrated on the league.

8 of the last 12 winners were Spanish and those 3 times have to bet in our opinion so that is where we will start.

Advice

Villarreal 21.0 generally 0.5pt e/w

Athletic Bilbao 15.0 generally 0.5pt

Celta Vigo 33.0 generally 0.5pt e/w

e/w bets are all 1/2 odds on making the final

Better odds are available on all those prices and use this promo code for bet 365.

2.5 pts outlay

Happy New Year and Happy London Derby too!

Hope everyone had a nice break and the office is back open here so we can deal with any issues or queries you have. Its Spurs v Chelsea tonight and we posted something a while back about the London derbies that is repeated below


The big match this weekend in the Premier League is the Saturday tea time clash between Arsenal and Chelsea. Whoever loses will feel the pressure as Liverpool have beaten both of these teams away so the loser will look like they can’t compete with the big boys.

The big 3 in London are Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal and they are building up a big rivalry as was seen in the game last season when Chelsea beat Spurs and presented the title to Leicester. These teams have all been there or thereabouts in the last 5 seasons aside from the Chelsea implosion last season as shown in the table below.

Season Arsenal Chelsea Spurs
2011-12 2 10 3
2012-13 3 1 5
2013-14 3 4 6
2014-15 4 3 5
2015-16 3 6 4

Finishing position of Arsenal Chelsea and Spurs in the last 5 seasons

There are have been 30 London derbies between these 3 teams in the last 5 seasons and there may be some patterns amongst the results.

Corners

The average (mean) corners is 10.7, the median is 11 and so is the mode. The full list of total corners is 16, 5, 11, 12, 11, 14, 11, 11, 12, 12, 10, 11, 7, 8, 9, 14, 9, 9, 8, 13, 8, 7, 4, 20, 15, 11, 13, 8, 13, 10.

Yellow Cards

The average (mean) yellow cars is 4.9 with the mode and median being 4. That crazy end of season game at Stamford Bridge had 12 yellows and the second highest total in these 5 seasons was 9 in Spurs other away game at Arsenal last season.

Goals

The full list of goals is 3, 8, 2, 7, 0, 0, 3, 6, 7, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 8, 3, 2, 2, 4, 4, 1, 0, 2, 2 and here the median and mode are both 3 with the mean average 3.0. 12 of the matches have been draws, 13 home wins and just 5 away wins, an average of 1 per season.

Summary

So 3 goals, 11 corners and 4-5 yellow cards sounds pretty much bang on what the lines will be so nothing too far from the norm.

Simple Weekend (Happy Christmas)

No games tomorrow as it’s Christmas Day but the madness of English football and the festive period starts on Boxing Day. We’ll keep the site up to date and Merry Christmas to our users from the Simple Soccer Stats team.

football-christmas-tree-facebook-cover

Simple Weekend (FIFA Club World Cup)

In the week we posted this about the Club World Championship and it took a late goal by Real Madrid to secure the 2 goal victory and therefore any stake on Real Madrid -2 on the Asian Handicap was returned.

world-club-championship

They play again today and you have to go back 11 matches to the final in 2009 to find the last time a European team did not win by 2 goals or more. Since the change of format in 12 of the last 13 matches the European teams have shown the gulf in glass in this tournament and won by 2 goals or more. The price on the Asian Handicap for Real Madrid -2 is around 1.8 and really looks a solid bet based on that stat.

European Teams in the World Club Championship (1 year on)

Last year we published this article about the World Club Championship and both bets were winners. We have updated the data to include those results and now we have all matches from 2009 to 2015 and the results are shown below

DateTeam 1ScoreTeam 2-2 AH-2.5AH
20.12.2015River Plate0-3BarcelonaWinWin
17.12.2015Barcelona3-0Guangzhou EvergrandeWinWin
20.12.2014Real Madrid2-0San LorenzoVoidLose
16.12.2014Cruz Azul0-4Real MadridWinWin
21.12.2013Bayern Munich2-0Raja CasablancaVoidLose
17.12.2013Guangzhou Evergrande0-3Bayern MunichWinWin
18.12.2011Santos0-4BarcelonaWinWin
15.12.2011Al-Sadd0-4BarcelonaWinWin
18.12.2010Mazembe0-3InterWinWin
15.12.2010Seongnam0-3InterWinWin
19.12.2009Estudiantes L.P.1-1*BarcelonaLoseLose
16.12.2009Atlante3-1BarcelonaVoidLose

The European team plays just 2 matches in this tournament and in those 12 matches have conceeded goals in only 2 and none in the last 5 years. It seems clear there is a big gulf in class between the European teams and the others in this and the -2 Asian Handicap looks an interesting bet as this has lost just once in that time and that was in the final in 2009. In all the semi final matches the European teams have managed to score 3 goals or more.

Bet Victor are offering 1.87 (was 1.9 when the article was started) on the Asian Handicap -2 and that looks a good bet.

14 Dec, 16 | Posted in: Tips | Comments Closed