Champions League: Matchday 3 – Roundup

Matchday 3 Results

Roma v Bayern Munich – Roma +0.5 @ 2.00 with Bet365 – Lost (7-1) -1

Porto v Athletic Bilbao – Athletic Bilbao @ 5.75 with Bet Victor (6.0 is around with some bookmakers) Lost (2-1) -1

Olympiakos v Juventus – Juventus @ 2.05 with Bet365 – Lost (1-0) -1

Liverpool v Real Madrid – Liverpool +0.75 @ 1.82 with Bet365 Lost (3-0) -1

Monaco v Benfica – Monaco @ 2.45 with Bet365 – Lost (0-0) -1

13 bets, 4 wins, 13pts staked, -3.00pts

 

Calamitous. A complete wipeout and this quote to boot

“There have not been many meetings between Italian and German teams in the last few years but this could be the season that the Italian league starts to improve again in Europe”

A resounding no is the answer to that.

Champions League: Matchday 3

The story so far – 8 bets, 4 wins, 8pts staked, +2.00pts

Bayern Munich have to be opposed based on historical results but this is tricky as they are much stronger now than they were previously. There have not been many meetings between Italian and German teams in the last few years but this could be the season that the Italian league starts to improve again in Europe. Athletic Bilbao are not performing too well at home but maybe they have a decent chance at Porto. Not too far to travel for them either.

On Wednesday Juventus look good value and have to take Liverpool against Madrid as Spanish teams have done very poorly in the group stages in England. Finally going with Monaco again at home against Benfica this time.

 

Roma v Bayern Munich – Roma +0.5 @ 2.00 with Bet365

Porto v Athletic Bilbao – Athletic Bilbao @ 5.75 with Bet Victor (6.0 is around with some bookmakers)

Olympiakos v Juventus – Juventus @ 2.05 with Bet365

Liverpool v Real Madrid – Liverpool +0.75 @ 1.82 with Bet365

Monaco v Benfica – Monaco @ 2.45 with Bet365

 

Champions League: Matchday 2 – Roundup

Matchday 2 results

Sporting v Chelsea – Sporting to win @ 5.25 with Bet365 – Lost (1-0) -1

PSG v Barcelona – PSG +0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365 – WIN (3-2) +0.95

Atletico Madrid v Juve – Atletico @ 2.2 with Bet365 – WIN (1-0) +1.2

Another pleasing week on this and a little cushion of profit. PSG were great winners over Barca and I chose the PSG +0.5 result as there was value with both the home win and the draw. The straight win would have been better but this is all about value

 

8 bets, 4 wins, 8pts staked, +2.00pts

 

Champions League: Matchday 2

The story so far – 5 bets, 2 wins, 5pts staked, +0.85pts

This week Chelsea look a little short at Sporting. Sporting haven’t started the season that well but have not lost with 2 wins and 4 draws. Portugal has not been a particularly happy place for English teams and a draw would not be a surprise. Similar(ish) story with Barcelona visiting PSG.

 

This week’s bets are below (all these bets will be 1pt)

Sporting v Chelsea – Sporting to win @ 5.25 with Bet365

PSG v Barcelona – PSG +0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365

edit (Tues AM):

adding one more as really there is enough scope on the Atletico price

Atletico Madrid v Juve – Atletico @ 2.2 with Bet365

WC2014 Roundup

There was no round up after the World Cup and it feels so long ago now. The final figures were

5 winners from 26 bets for a loss of  -9.19pts.

There were no bets for the 3rd/4th place playoff and the final as was away from the office but there would have been a loser in the former and a winner in the latter which would have increased the wins by a point at least. After the group stages the results were

2/17 :: -9.86

so it was the group stage that caused all the damage. 4 years is a long time to wait to correct these mistakes but the backing the draw in the knockout phase with certain filters would have turned a small profit.

 

 

The Mini Console is back

Since the start of the season there have been a number of users asking about the mini console. Always a fan of this console myself it’s back for the sheer simplicity. At the moment it will just be for corners and yellow cards but the Asian Handicap one is already planned and sketched out so hopefully should be there soon. More metrics can be added if requested.

Visit it here.

Champions League: Matchday 1 – Roundup

Matchday 1 results

Roma v CSKA Moscow – CSKA to win @ 7 with Bet365 – Lost (5-1) -1

Bayern Munich v Manchester City – Man City +0.75 @ 2.06 with Bet Victor – Lost/Void (1-0) -0.5

Benfica v Zenit – Zenit 0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365 – WIN (0-2) +0.95

Moncao v Bayer Leverkusen – Monaco to win @ 3.4 with Bet365 – WIN (1-0) +2.4

Dortmund v Arsenal – Arsenal to win @ 4.33 with Bet365 – LOSE (2-0) -1

5 bets, 2 wins, 5pts staked, +0.85pts

 

A good start and probably a bit of luck with Zent beating Porto and playing most of the game against 10 men but also slightly unlucky Man City did not hold on for a draw.

Champions League: Matchday 1 (Wednesday)

Decent start yesterday and will do the summary after the first round of matches.

Wednesday’s bets and all these bets will be 1pt

Roma v CSKA Moscow – CSKA to win @ 7 with Bet365

Bayern Munich v Manchester City – Man City +0.75 @ 2.06 with Bet Victor

Results from Tuesday

Benfica v Zenit – Zenit 0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365 – WIN (0-2) +0.95

Moncao v Bayer Leverkusen – Monaco to win @ 3.4 with Bet365 – WIN (1-0) +2.4

Dortmund v Arsenal – Arsenal to win @ 4.33 with Bet365 – LOSE (2-0)

Champions League: Matchday 1

Successfully had bets on the Champions League over the past few seasons based on an idea of the countries playing each other.

 

Tuesday’s bets and all these bets will be 1pt

Benfica v Zenit – Zenit 0.5 @ 1.95 with Bet365

Moncao v Bayer Leverkusen – Monaco to win @ 3.4 with Bet365

Dortmund v Arsenal – Arsenal to win @ 4.33 with Bet365

 

User question: Betting on total corners

I  received a question the other day from a user who wanted to know how to use the stats for total corners betting. Rather than answer him directly I am adding the answer to the blog and this is something I will do in the future as well. He asked

“Any bets i would make would be over a certain amount of corners say 9 for example. So the kind of stats i was looking for was previous mayches between lets say Liverpool & Southampton who were playing today. So what i would be looking for would be previous matches between these two, how many corners were there? How many corners liverpool have in home games and southampton away. This gives me a base to make a prediction. What im basically looking to know, does this site have these stats?”

The short answer is yes we do have these stats. At the moment we don’t have historical corner accounts for matches just between these two teams at the moment. For example we can’t see the last 4 or 5 seasons that these teams played and the corner counts. However, I do have this information and this is something I will add to the page.

For total corners you have a few sections you can look at on the site. Tonight Chelsea play against Burnley and if you visit the corner console and set the season to Prev Only then we get all last season’s stats.

corner stats image

Top section of corner stats page

If we look at the section above we can see the top section with the data fron last season for both these teams. The summary boxes at the top give you the top line stats. So we can see that last season Chelsea away matches averaged 11.7 corners and this is similar to Burnley home matches that averaged 11.8 corners. For what it’s worth in a game like this with a big 4 team I would not be too interested in the stats of their opposition as more than likely the game will be controlled and dictated by Chesea.

The match by match section shows the totals in graphical form. This gives you a chance to see any games that are really high or really low and might have changed the average a lot. For example if you look at the Chelsea line (if you click in the key where it says Burnley match total it will remove this line and leave you just with Chelsea) you can see the three highest totals were 18 vs Man City and 17 away at Swansea and Liverpool. Interesting that two of their highest totals game away at the two teams that finished above them. That would indicate they have higher counts against better teams.

If you want to check any stats for a match you can look in the matches section and then click on the + sign at the end of any match and the statistics will appear in the middle. In the example above the match for Chelsea away at Cardiff has been clicked and you can see the corner totals in there.

Asian total corners boxes for total corner bettings

Asian total corners boxes for total corner betting

The main section for checking total corners and getting an idea of the odds needed is the ASIAN TOTAL CORNERS section which is shown above. You can move up and down this section and see how the lines look. Above I have looked at the 11 and 11.5 line. The Asian Handicap differs slightly from just total corners as there are only 2 outcomes. For example for this match Bet365 have the Asian Total Corners line at 11 and the price is 1.9 for over 11 and 1.9 for under 11. If the total corners for the match was 11 then you would have your stake returned. If we look at the line being 11 and Chelsea’s stats last season we can see that they played matches 19 matches away from home and in 7 of those they went under 11 corners and in 9 of those they went over 19 corners and in 3 they landed bang on 11 corners. In this case it would look like the over 11 line is better value as based on last seasons stats the equivalent price should be 1.78 but we can get 1.9 with Bet365. However, This is Chelsea against a small team and I would want to take that into account. For example if we exclude matches against the other teams in the top 4 we are left with 16 matches and in those 16 matches 7 were under 11 corners, 6 were over 11 corners and 3 were exactly spot on 11 corners.  So if we then look at games that were under 11 corners we have 7/13 matches (ignore the 3 draws in an Asian Handicap) which is 53.8% and equivalent to odds of 1.86 so pretty much what Bet365 offer with a tiny bit of value.

For the total corner line (not asian) if you wanted to back under 11 corners then it’s 7/16 matches which is around 43.5% and equivalent to odds of 2.29 but Bet365 only offer you a price of evens in the corners market on Over 11 corners. They offer 8.5 (15/2) on exactly 11 corners and that could well be the best value of the 3 choices.

Hope this is useful and if you have any follow ups please post as a comment.