I had just two bets this weekend and then also mentioned Hertha Berlin, who frustratingly went on to win at a very nice price. Oxford won, which was not the hardest thing in the world to predict but they did it by a 3 goal margin which I didn’t predict and strike that one off as risky bet that didn’t come off. However, the Valencia v Malaga bet really hurt. It was the 10pm match here and Malaga should have been leading at the break with all the clear cut chances they created. Albert Luque was really back to his pre-Newcastle form and it was good to see and Malaga are a decent team to watch. They were made to pay by David Villa in the second half, much like England, as he doesn’t need much of a chance to score. It was a nice goal but Malaga were good enough to get back on level terms and still looked the more likely to win and had late chances. Maybe the win bet was a bit bold but after watching the game have to have been happy with it despite losing. Valencia go to Deportivo next weekend and if they still haven’t been paid could well be another selection, especially as Moretti went off injured and Marchena and Albelda will be suspended. Deportivo have a UEFA cup match this week though so I need to see how well they are doing qualifying etc.

Elsewhere, Real Madrid outclassed Gijon 4-0 and people were walking out with around 15 minutes to go as it got a bit ugly. Gijon only have to play Villareal next weekend and then have a decent run of games when they can hopefully accumulate the points needed to get up the table to safety. Sevilla won against 10 men but still aren’t convincing and Betis did well against Barcelona but couldn’t hold on. They have a few players back now and could be one to watch.

It’s been a hard start to the year but would have been so different on just that one result at the weekend. The next couple of months are normally a very good time to find some decent winners as clear patterns have emerged.

94 Bets (89 points staked) :: 34 won – 53 lost – 6 void – 1 half void :: -7.87 points

I’ll check the midweek games tomorrow and see if there is anything looks worth a bet..

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

FA Cup weekend again which cuts down on the available games I look at. The only thing I found in England was in the conference and that is listed as a bet below. Also no premiership games means no corner bets. I would like to start looking at other leagues for corner bets but I need time to start digging.

Real Madrid come to play in Gijon this weekend but I couldn’t get a ticket so will settle for PPV on the TV. Valencia’s players still haven’t been paid overdue wages and it will be interesting to see if that affects them. I was tempted by Hertha Berlin in Germany but I don’t really bet much there and they have such a long Christmas break I think it makes recent form much less worthwhile.

Oxford v Barrow (English Conference: Sat 3pmUK Time)

Oxford have won 11/16 home games (2^nd best in the conference) and Barrow have lost 9/14 away games. That bottom line gives us a 20/30 chance of a home win which equates to 1.5 and is only slightly less than the best price on offer of 1.57. Oxford have won 10 of their last 11 home games and Barrow have lost 6 of the last 7 away and only won once in the last 11 games. Everything points to an Oxford home win but I found it interesting that 7/16 Oxford home games and 6/14 Barrow away games have been a victory to the home side by just one goal. I thought of betting on the margin of victory being one goal on Bet365 @ 3.5 but really 1-0 is unlikely and Barrow scoring 2 goals is as well so 2-1 to Oxford looks slightly crazy but great value. Of the 30 matches (Oxford home and Barrow away) 9 have ended 2-1, which is odds of 3.33 so I think it’s worth risking a point at 9 on 2-1

++ Correct Score – 2-1 11 @ 9 on SkyBet (1pt)

Valencia v MalagaBilbao (Spain: Sat 10pm Local Time – 9pmUK)

As I mentioned above Valencia have had severe problems with finances and I read on goal.com “The team have been waiting on their wages for several weeks and, even though they do not yet know when they will be given their pay cheques, the coach claimed that there is nothing to be worried about.” It must provide some distraction and Malaga have been in great form recently. They lost 3 of their first 4 games of the season, drawing the other, but since then in 18 matches have lost just 4 times to Barcelona and Real Madrid and then away at both Deportivo and Bilbao which are very hard places to visit. They have won 5 of their last 8 games and lost just once compared to Valencia who have lost 3 of the last 4 and who, after going undefeated in their first 8 games taking 20 of a possible 24 points, have now taking 17 points from the last 14 games. Their home form is old but Santander and Gijon have already won in the Mestalla and I think this could be a good chance for Malaga and a win could see them in 4^th place!

++ Win Market – Malaga @ 5.5 on Betfred/Skybet/Stan James (1pt)

2 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

I went into this weekend really happy with my selections knowing any 2 turned a profit and pretty confident of that but ended up with just one winner and it being the lowest price of the lot. City won 1-0 to start it off, Cagliari lost 1-0 and then Bilbao lost 2-1. The only winner was the corner bet and when I saw 6 corners at HT and knowing Arsenal were down to 0 thought that bet was doomed. Got some luck there thankfully as they only managed another 4.

92 Bets (87 points staked) :: 34 won – 51 lost – 6 void – 1 half void :: -5.87 points

There are a few games on Tuesday night and will check the weather outlook and then the games tomorrow. Otherwise it’s international midweek and some good games to enjoy.

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx

A weather disrupted weekend and very little of interest in the lower divisions. Not many big games around but I am looking forward to the Seville derby on Saturday night which should be fiery. I saw Sevilla last weekend and some of their cup game in the week and they really have missed Luis Fabiano. I like Betis, and although they are wildly inconsistent I could see them winning.

I do like the look of West Brom against Newcastle, especially with all the bad press about Newcastle. The one worry would be Newcastle have Smith, Viduka and Martins back training so could post a semi-decent forward for the first time in a while but I do think the 3.5 on them to get relegated could look good value pretty soon as Kinnear looks out of his depth and doesn’t stop making headlines with his endless talking.

A corner bet to kick off

Arsenal v Tottenham (English Premier League: Sun 13:30pm Local Time)

Betting on the live game gives many more corner markets which is handy. I looked at North London derby games going back to, and including, the 04/05 season and found only 1/9 was more than 11 corners. In fact 7/9 games were under 10 corners which is odds of 1.29 and I think this can be put down to the style of football you get in these games. It’s tense and with much less free flowing football and when I looked Arsenal against Everton games as a comparison I found 6/10 games were 11 or more which made me think there is a pattern in Spurs games. Even the 4-5 Arsenal win in 2004 produced just 7 corners and the 4-4 draw earlier this season 10. Only 1 of the 4 recent White Hart Lane matches has been more than 10 and that was 12, which in the 9 matches was the highest corner tally! Bet365, Betfred and Blue Sq offer evens on under 11 but Paddy Power is the standout at 2.1

++ Total Corners – Under 11 @ 2.1 on Paddy Power (1pt)

ManchesterCity v Middlesborough (English Premier League: Sat 12:45pm Local Time)

City have been strong at home and 7 of their 8 league wins have been at the City of Manchester stadium. The only teams they have not beaten there are Everton, Man United, Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool and in the Spurs game they were down to 10 men before the half hour mark. It’s the margin of victory that I like here as 5 of those 7 home wins have been by 3 goals or more (5/12 = 42% which is odds of 2.4). Boro turn up in a sorry state with no win in 12 games and 5 consecutive away losses. I could see City getting a few if they get ahead and West Brom and Fulham have both beaten Boro by 3 goals recently. If we take the Asian Handicap of City -2 we will get a big pay day if they match beat that but a 2 goal margin will return our money and I think the odds look too good to turn down. Taking all City home and Boro away games we would win 7/24 which is 29% and odds of 3.4 and the money would have been returned twice. Bet365 offer a tasty 4.7

++ Asian Handicap – ManchesterCity (-2) @ 4.7 on Bet365 (1pt)

Valladolid v Atheltic Bilbao (Spain: Sun 5pm Local Time – 4pmUK)

I have been really impressed with Athletic Bilbao recently. After taking 5 points from their first 9 games they then have taken 24 from a possible 36 in the next 12 games. They have won 5 of the last 7 games and finally started to win away as well. They lost to resurgent Almeria last weekend but otherwise have only lost at Real Madrid, Sevilla and Deportivo which is no disgrace. Llorente is having a great season for them and they visit Valladolid who won for the first time in 5 games at Atletico Madrid last weekend. I like Athletic at 3.5 to win but I find it very hard to see them losing and so draw no bet (Asian Handicap (0)) looks best. Stan James offer 2.45 and Pinnacle offer 2.53 on the AH.

++ Draw No Bet – Athletic Bilbao @ 2.5 on Bet365 (1pt)

Cagliari v Atalanta (Italy Serie A: Sun 3pm Local Time – 2pmUK))

Back to the island again as their home record is so strong and stats wise it’s hard to turn this down. Most of the following is copied from the post a week or so back! In Cagliari’s 3 first home games they lost to Lazio and Juve and drew with Milan. Since then they have won 7/8, drawing the other, and led at half time in 6 of them. All in all they have led at HT and FT in 5/10 matches with the 5 winners all in the last 8 games. Atalanta have won just once away all season and lost 7/10 matches, being behind at HT and FT in exactly half. Their one win came in their first away game at Bologna and have lost 5 of the last 6. If we take the bottom line stats Cagliari winning at HT and FT looks to be a 10/21 chance which is 2.1 and so the 3.5 that is available looks good value. Coral have 3.4, Betfair a little better and then after that it’s 3.25. The straight win looks to be a 1.5 chance and evens is available.

++ HT/FT Cagliari/Cagliari @ 3.5 on VC (1pt)

4 points staked on the weekend.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

A shame this weekend as Sevilla let us down on Sunday night. I was at the game and they really were poor considering they played over an hour against 10 men. They deserved to lose and the team they put out showed they didn’t take the game as seriously as they will the Copa del Rey in midweek. Another game where the bet looked solid but if I knew the team in advance would have left it alone. On the plus side the 1-0 for Gijon moves them 10 points clear of the drop zone and not far from the 40 odd points needed to stay up.

The weekend started well as Fulham won leading at both half time and full time. I tracked a load of these games this weekend and was very pleased with the outcome and may look to do a few more. The corner bet was a clear loser as Bolton scored early and Spurs then had 8 corners to Boltons 2.

In midweek we had a big corner win as Pompey and Villa shared 22, Cagliari landed the HT/FT result at a nice price with Leicester the only team letting us down drawing 0-0

A loss of half a point this weekend but with the midweek haul of 1.85 it’s not so bad.

88 Bets (83 points staked) :: 33 won – 48 lost – 6 void – 1 half void :: -3.97 points

There are midweek games in England but with the bad weather some may be lost but will see what is about tonight.

* This does not include the 3 antepost bets.

“If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Chico Marx