Corner Bets 08.02.2014

Rayo Vallecano v Malaga
Race to 7 Corners – Rayo @ 1.83 (2 points)
Rayo have won the race to 7 corners in 6/10 home matches and the teams they didn’t win it against were Elche, Barca and both Madrid clubs. So remove the top 3 and they did it in 6/7 home matches. Malaga have lost this race in 8/10 matches so 1.83 looks good

A major storm took out the internet so the rest of this is done the day after.

Sampdoria v Cagliari
Race to 7 Corners – Neither @ 1.72 (1 point)
In 8/11 Samp home games and 8/10 Cagliari away games no team has made it to 7 corners, so the Neither option on Race to 7 looks an option. That’s 16/21 matches and is 76% which should be odds around 1.31 but 1.72 is available and looks worth taking.

Norwich v Man City
Asian Handicap Corners – Norwich +3 @ 1.95 (1 point)
Man City have only beaten this line 3 times away and have drawn it once. Norwich have always beaten this handicap in 12 home games including against Chelsea so this price looks wrong. City would have to win by 4 corners and that happenned in the 3 games they lost earlier in the season (Cardiff, Villa and Sunderland) so they are stronger now and would expect Norwich to beat this line.

8 Feb, 14 | Posted in: Corners, Tips | Comments Closed

Corner Bets 31.01.2014 RESULTS

2 winners from the corner bets thanks to an 87th minute Inter Milan corner.

Cagliari v Fiorentina: Team Corners – Cagliari Over 5.5 @ 2.1 LOST -1

Juventus v Inter: Team Corners – Inter Over 3.5 @ 1.66 WON +0.66

Hannover v Borussia Monchengladbach:  Team Corners – Hannover Over 5.5 @ 2.1 WON +1.1

3 bets – 2 winners +0.76

Will have some more up next weekend.

3 Feb, 14 | Posted in: Corners, Tips | Comments Closed

Corner Bets 31.01.2014

I think there are enough corner stats now that I will make some corner bets for the next few months and record them here. I use the corner console and also the team stats page.

All bets are 1pt unless I mention otherwise and I just use the Bet365 odds.

Serie A

Cagliari v Fiorentina
Team Corners – Cagliari Over 5.5 @ 2.1
Cagliari average 5.7 corners at home so the line looks right, except they are playing Fiorentina and their opponents average 6.5 corners. Cagliari have gone over the 5.5 line in 5/11 home matches which again looks spot on with the odds on offer but they have got 4 corners in their last 4 matches and they were against Juve, AC and Napoli who are in the top 5 in terms of corners conceeded. On basic stats the price looks right but digging down all the value is with Cagliari (1pt).

Juventus v Inter
Team Corners – Inter Over 3.5 @ 1.66
Juve have played 10 home games and each opponent has got at least 2 corners and the average is 4.2 with 6/10 teams getting 4 or more corners, which is equivalent to 1.67. Inter Milan average the most corners away from home in the entire league at 5.9 and have got at least 4 in 8/10 away matches. The price isn’t big but it looks to be value (1pt).

Bundesliga

Hannover v Borussia Monchengladbach
Team Corners – Hannover Over 5.5 @ 2.1
Only Bayern Munich get more corners at home than Hannover and they have beaten the 5.5 line in 7/9 home matches. Monchengladbach do not allow many corners away from home and are 3rd tightest but they have allowed their opponents to get over the 5.5 line in 8 away games. A couple of the teams who have not managed to beat it are Hoffenheim and Mainz and they are the 2 of the 3 worst teams in the league at getting corners at home. 2.1 looks generous (1pt).

 

31 Jan, 14 | Posted in: Corners, Tips | Comments Closed

Race to 3, 5 and 7 corner stats

Recently I have added the stats for Race to 3 corners, race to 5 corners and race to 7 corners for major leagues. I have them for the top division in England, Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Brazil, Argentina and the USA

corner

I realise the boat has already set sail with the USA but I have them anyway and will add the A-League in Australia shortly. I have put them on a preview page but they will replace the main corner page once I have added last seasons stats as well.

Update of corner bets tweeted (08/05/2013)

I think that is probably it for the season after a -3.63 point loss at the weekend. A shame as a couple of games were very close. Swansea and Man City tied on 4 so if Swansea had managed one corner it would have been just a one point loss. More of a punch in the stomach was Napoli v Inter Milan where Inter edged the corners 6-5 but were stuck on 6 from the 58th minute. If we had just one more corner in that match then a massive 3 point profit would have been taken.

A few of the short priced selections I looked at lost as well which makes me think the unpredictability is much bigger now.

Profit +16.19 – Bets 42 (15 wins)

Date TweetedTweetLeagueResultP/L
03/05/2013Serie A: 1st corner –Napoli lost in 9/17 (h) and Inter won 10/17 (a). Inter should be fav so 2.37 decent.Serie AWon+1.37
03/05/2013Serie A: 1st corner – Torino best in league away winning 1st corner In 11/17 matches. Worth a punt at 3.0 v AC.Serie ALost-1
03/05/2013Serie A: Race to 7 – Inter (a) won 5/17 and Napoli (h) lost 5/17 so 3.4 sounds right. Longshot but 7.0 good value on Inter.Serie ALost-1
03/05/2013Prem: Race to 5 – Swans as good as anyone at race to 5 winning 14/17 (h). City good but lost 6/17 and 2.62 looks fair price.PremierLost-1
03/05/2013La Primera: Race to 5 – Malaga again at a big price. Mal (a) won 6/16 and Granada (h) lost 5/16. Over 3.2 is value so 5.5 appeals.La PrimeraLost-1
03/05/2013Bund: 1st corner – Hannover (h) lost 10/15 and Mainz (a) won 1st corner in 9/15. Mainz should be fav so 2.1 is good.BundesligaLost-1
26/04/2013Serie A: Chievo won first corner in 10/16 (h) and Genoa lost in 12/16 (a) so 1.72 looks big based on those percentages.Serie ALost-1
26/04/2013Serie A: Samp value in every corner market v Fiorentina. Race to 5 best as won 12/16 (h) and Viola lost in 7/16 (a). 2.5 very generous.Serie ALost-1
26/04/2013Serie A: Race to 3 on Pescara. Won 8/16 (h) and Napoli lost 8/16 (a) so evens fair and 3.0 attractive.Serie ALost-1
26/04/2013Prem: Arsenal (h) lost first corner in 9/17 (h) and Man Utd 2nd best in league winning 12/17 (a) so 2.2 on United good value.PremierLost-1
26/04/2013Prem: Worth chancing Newc on RaceTo7. W9 D8 (h) & =6 in Prem. Liverp L 5/17 so 3.4 is right 4 them but Newc record swings it in their favourPremierLost-1
26/04/2013Spain: Sociedad (h) lost first corner market in 10/16 and Val (a) won 9/15. Based on that 1.67 would be fair so 2.0 Val 1st worth taking.La PrimeraWon+1
26/04/2013Spain: Crazy Bilbao have won Race to 7 in 14/16 (h). That’s mental and 4.0 has to be taken even if they are playing Barca.La PrimeraLost-1
26/04/2013Germany: Same game the first corner market. Leverkusen lost 8/15 (h) and Bremen won 10/15 (a). 2.37 looks big for Bremen.BundesligaWon+1.37
26/04/2013Germany: RaceTo3. Leverkusen (h) & Bremen (a) have = records of W11 L4 so 1.36 for Lever & 3.0 for Bremen looks wrong. Evens would be rightBundesligaWon+2
22/04/2013Spain Race to 5: Celta Vigo have lost this in 7/15 (h) + Zaragoza have won in 6/16 (a). 6/16 is equivalent to odds of 2.67 so 3 looks value.La PrimeraWon+2
19/04/2013Italy first corner: Inter did this in 11/16 (h) and Parma conceded in 12/16 (a). 1.72 looks very big. 1.45 would be about right.Serie AWon+0.72
19/04/2013Prem Race to 5: Swans on Rto7 value also. 5 is lower price but landed in 13/16 (h) and Southampton lost in 10/16 (a). Edge for sure at 1.66PremierWon0.66+
19/04/2013Spain Race to 7: Big + speculative but Malaga won Rto to 7 in 4/15 (a) + Val lost in 5/16 (h). 3.75 about right so 6.5 is very generous.La PrimeraWon+5.5
19/04/2013Germany 1st corner: Dortmund surprisingly conceded 1st in 9/14 matches + Mainz had 1st in 9/14 away. 2.62 very big on Mainz 1st corner.BundesligaLost-1
19/04/2013Germany Race to 5: Stuttgart lost 6/14 (h) and Freiburg won 8/14 (a). Evens would look right on Freiburg and 2.5 well worth taking.BundesligaWon+1.5
19/04/2013Germany Race to 3: Leverkusen won 10/14 Rto3 (h) but Hoffenheim are decent away winning 8/14. Likely Lever will win but 3.5 too big for HoffBundesligaLost+1
15/04/2013Another corner tweet. Lazio 1st corner in 13/16 (h), only Roma better. Juventus 1st corner 8/15 (a). Juve as favs is wrong. Take Lazio 2.0Serie AWon+1
12/04/2013Spain: Race to 7. Amazingly Bilbao have won this in 13/15 home matches. Next best is 10/16. RM lost this in 5/15 away so 3.5 is too big.La PrimeraWon+2.5
12/04/2013Spain: Race to 5. Atl Mad have lost this in 5/15 home games. Odds should be 3.0 without Granada who are decent + won 7/15. 4.5 much too bigLa PrimeraLost-1
12/04/2013Bund: Stuttgart had had 1st corner in 11/13 home games. Bor Monch conceeded 1st corner in 9/14 away matches. 1.61 looks decent on this.BundesligaWon+.61
12/04/2013Prem: Reading won race to 5 in 10/16 at home and Liverpool lost it in 6/16 away. 4.33 looks way too big.PremierLost-1
05/04/2013It's a bit of a random market but Roma have had the first corner in 12/14 home matches. I'll have a small nibble on that at 1.72 (monday)Serie AWon+0.72
05/04/2013Short priced corner accu. Bund: Bayern Rto3 @ 1.4, Prem: Stoke Rto3 @ 1.53, Spain: Osasuna Rto5 @ 1.36 pays 2.92.VariousLost-1
05/04/2013Spain: Race to 7. Celta Vigo lost this in 5/14 (h). Rayo are kings of race to 7 in Spain. 7/14 wins (a) & 3.5 is massive.La PrimeraLost-1
05/04/2013Spain: Race to 5. Deportivo lost this in 7/14 at home and Zaragoza won in 6/15 away. Worst way price should be 2.5 and not the 3.1 on offerLa PrimeraLost-1
05/04/2013Prem: Race to 5 corners. Everton like a corner. Won Rto5 in 8/14 (a). Spurs lost in 4/15 (h). That + No Lennon/Bale makes 3.4 a big price.PremierWon+2.4
04/04/2013Bundesliga race to 5. Hamburg lost this in 6/14 homes. Freiburg won in 8/13 aways. Price should be 1.9 and not the 2.5 on offer for FreiburgBundesligaLost-1
29/03/2013 In Serie A Inter are kings of race to 7 (Samp =) winning 8/14. Yes they host Juve who are tight on corners but 4.33? Big.Serie AWon+3.33
29/03/2013Race to 3. Villa won this in 8/15 at home. Liverpool won in 7/8 away. Why then are Liv priced 1.36? AV at 3.0 looks very big.PremierLost-1
29/03/2013At Mad won race to 5 in 10/14 at home so 1.4 spot on. However, Val 1 of 6 teams who won over 50% race to 5 away. 3.4 a bit of valueLa PrimeraWon+2.4
29/03/2013Race to 3 corners in Spain. Malaga should not be 3.4 at Rayo. Rayo 7/14 @ home. Malaga won 5/13 when away but that’s a price of 2.6.La PrimeraWon+2.4
15/03/2013Stoke race to 3 corners is 1.72. They won that race 10/14 matches at home and baggies won it just 2/12 away. price should be 1.3ishPremierWon+0.72
15/03/2013Rayon won race to 5 corners at both Madrid clubs. Can they do it at Camp Nou? 6.0 are the odds and looks high.La PrimeraWon+5.0
07/03/2013Spurs have won the race to 7 corners in 9 of their 14 home matches. That equates to odds around 1.56. If they do that tonight 1.8 looks goodEuropa LeagueLost-1
02/03/2013of my hours of corner research Wigan to have the first corner v Liverpool at 2.1 is the best value bet. Should be more like 1.7PremierLost-1
01/03/2013Race to 5. Swansea won in 11/13 homes. Newcastle won in just 1/13 away, drawn (no winner) 5 times. should be 1.44 based on that, not 1.66.PremierWon+0.66
Table listing the bets tweeted
Profit +16.19
Bets 42 (15 wins)