Week 9 (04/10/08)

We have moved into a healthy(ish) position now and hope we don’t blow it all. Somehow this midweek I didn’t put on the bet for Leicester which was a shame but maybe there will be some losers at other times where I do the same.

I added the badges to the console this week and it was tedious work but there were quite a few that I liked and made me laugh.

These ones I just thought were quite appealing to the eye. Not sure how football related the Hamburg one is

The next batch we start to get a bit odd. Leixoes in Portugal don't even include a football in their logo but managed to find the only cricket bat in Portugal. That Heereneevn badge must be a sixties child, Xanthi obviously have someone famous they are proud of and the inspiration for Billy the Fish can be seen with Lorient.

Animals feature prominently in many badges but some of these seemed a bit strange. Hereford have just gone for the Bull and I have no idea what the Wycombe duck/swan/goose has attached to it. Who in Catania decided they should have an elephant in their badge and the less said about the Koln goat the better.

A few interesting matches around this weekend and I’m looking forward to Atletico Madrid at Barcelona late on Saturday night. Barca have thrown away a 2 goal lead at home to Betis only to grab a late winner, then needed two stoppage time goals to beat Espanyol and Shaktar. I have no idea why they persist with the shocking Victor Valdes in goal and if you spend over €20m on a fullback surely the budget stretches to a decent goalie. When they play Real Madrid you can just see the difference that Casillas makes compared to the negative effect of Valdes. Also Messi has been slightly injury prone and they will be in real trouble if he is out. Atletico have started in the tunnel of death and have to get something there.

Onto this weekends games. Apologies for the lightly briefer than normal write-ups but time pressures dictated that.

Everton v Newcastle (English Premiership: Sunday 4pm BST)

Starting with a corner bet and we haven’t had many games so far this season but hopefully I can demonstrate good reasoning for this. At Arsenal Newcastle lost 12-1 on the corner count and that has skewed all their averages. In the other 5 matches home and away they have had 5, 6, 5, 4 and 6 corners. Everton have been give a -2 handicap to overcome and this season they managed that in the Merseyside derby (which is a game I am happy to exclude) and then equalled it in one other game. If Newcastle get the 5 corner average that their previous results indicate then Everton will need 8 to win the bet. Kinnear is in charge and really has nothing to lose and can get Newcastle to attack which hopefully will lead to some corners. If we look at last seasons result This bet would have been a win for Newcastle 55% of the games which is odds of 1.8 and there’s not a huge margin with the price on offer but I think Everton have a lot to do to beat that line.

++ Asian Handicap Corners – Newcastle (+2) @ 1.875 on Bet365 (1pt)

Norwich v Derby (English Championship: Saturday 3pm BST)

An interesting game as Derby seem to have discovered some form and are unbeaten in 5 and travel . Norwich’s home form mirrors that of Derby away with 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss but the other interesting stat is that all 8 of these games (Norwich home and Derby away) have been under 2.5 goals. The stats scream 1-1 at me but that looks a bit predictable and something urges me to back Derby so am prepared to risk a hard earned point on this match. It’s a big risk but the reward is clear.

++ Correct Score – 0-2 and 1-2 @ 13 and 11 generally (2 x ½pt = 1pt) – 15 on Paddy Power and 12 on Hills are the best

Huddersfield v Leicester (English League One: Saturday 3pm BST)

I backed Leicester in midweek and am happy to do so again. Leicester are top with 6 wins in the 8 matches and the best away record in the division. As I pointed out in midweek their defensive record is great and  fact they have conceded just 3 goals in 8 matches (1 in 3 at home) is very impressive. Huddersfield aren’t bad but with just 4 points from 4 home games Leicester look good value. Draw no bet at 1.82 on Ladbrokes is great but I’ll take the win bet this time.

++ Match Odds – Leicester @ 2.5 on Stan James/Bet Direct (1pt)

Hereford v Walsall (English League One: Saturday 3pm BST)

Aside from having a naff badge Hereford have a made a poor start to the season taking just 4 points in 8 games. Walsall have won 5/8 games this season and 4 of the last 5. They have lost just 2 games and Hereford have only won 1 so if we plump for the asian handicap here of Walsall (0, -0.5) we would have had a winner 11/16 games, a loser 3/16 and 2 games that were half lose/half void. If you see it like that it has to be a bet.

++ Asian Handicap – Walsall (0, -0.5) on Bet365 @ 2.1 (1pt) – 2.14 on Pinnacle

4 points staked on the weekend.

I think Mansfield look very solid in the conference and a double with West Ham was the other bet I considered so will back that as well.

Good luck in whatever bets you do.

3 Oct, 08 | Comments Closed