Quite a tough card to make sense of this weekend. Am avoiding the Championship after getting burnt there last weekend. The MK Dons and Gillingham both tempted me but I couldn’t make a good enough case for them.
Barcelona are a very short price against Valencia and I thought Valencia played well last weekend and in Mata and Villa have two very dangerous players. Marchena being suspended is a big blow, but Valdes likes an error against Valencia! Real Madrid v Sevilla is another interesting one with all the Madrid injuries. Would need to see their line up. One price that is too big is the €60 to get in to see Sporting take on Atletico Madrid in the cheapest seats when it’s normally €30!
Corner bet to begin as always
Newcastle v Stoke (English Premiership: Sat 3pm Local Time)
Newcastle have played Wigan, Villa, West Brom, ManCity, Blackburn, Hull and Bolton at home this season and only had more corners than any of them once. Looking at Stoke away, if we drop the big 4 matches, we have 5 games and they have won the corner count 3 out of those 5. With the line giving Stoke a +1.5 handicap if we take all these games it would have been a winner 10/12 times and so needs to be bet.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – Stoke +1.5 @ 1.85 on Bet365 (1pt)
Fulham v ManchesterCity (English Premiership: Sat 12:45pm Local Time)
In Fulham were to win this game on Saturday then they would be left with the second best home record in the division. Better than Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and even Stoke! 5 wins from 7 home games, with 1 draw and 1 loss is very impressive. ManCity arrive and they have taken just 5 points from a possible 21 away. It looks like money talks as they really should not be a similar price to Fulham in this game. Fulham have lost just once in the last 8 matches, whereas ManCity have won just once. The win odds are tempting but by taking the asian handicap I think we have a nice safety net.
++ Draw No Bet – Fulham @ 1.91 on Sporting Bet365 (1pt) – Asian Handicap – Fulham (0) @ 1.9 on Bet365
Motherwell v Hearts (Scottish Premier: Sat 3pm Local Time)
I think this is the second time I have found a bet in Scotland this season. Hearts come into this in good form and are in 3rd place whereas Motherwell are 3rd from the bottom. Hearts have won 4 of their last 5 games keeping clean sheets in all those wins, with the only loss against Celtic. Motherwell are the opposite having scored just once in their last 5 games and with just a solitary point from a possible 15. If you take their records at home and away this game looks like it could swing either way but as we can get evens on the asian handicap the form of hearts looks to swing the bet in our favour.
++ Asian Handicap – Hearts (0) @ 1.98 on Bet365 (1pt)
Caen v Rennes (France: Sat 7pm local time)
Time to reach for the Rennes again and I can’t get enough of these boys. They sit in 2nd place in France, 5 points behind Lyon but are still unbeaten since the Grenoble game on 17th August. That’s 15 matches and after drawing too many matches earlier on they seem to have got a few more in the W column now. In their opening game of the season they drew 4-4 with Marseille and since then have conceded just 7 goals in 15 matches. This I think is very important. Looking at their last 10 games they have scored 14 and let in just 4. Caen’s home record looks decent but the 4 teams they have beaten are all in the bottom 7. They have only played teams in the top half twice and won one and drew one. Rennes I think will be too good and 1-0 looks a sensible scoreline but lets take Rennes to win.
++ Win Market – Rennes @ 2.8 on Betfred (1pt) – @ 2.75 on General
French League
I looked at the above game and have studied Rennes inside out so far and I am happy to recommend ½pt e/w on them to win the French League. We can get ½ odds on finishing second and at 40/1 I think this is worth a shot. It might blow up but it looks good value and Lyon can’t keep winning the league forever!
++ Win Market – Rennes to win France Ligue 1 @ 40/1 on Boylesports (½pt e/w)
5 points staked on the weekend.
Good luck in whatever bets you do.
