Have started new headers for the blog in the new year as the weeks make no sense if I miss some out. Looking forward to watching some football at the weekend and the United-Chelsea game on Sunday should be interesting. As usual the corner bet is worth a look in a big 4 game. Real Madrid looked tempting at 1.8 away at Mallorca as I do think Mallorca are very poor but need to see the Madrid side and see how Huntelaar fits in.
After doing the analysis this week I have concentrated on the lower English leagues and think I have found a couple of good bets. There will be less bets from now on with probably between 2 and 5 each weekend.
I had written up Swindon v Stockport but that has been postponed till Tuesday night so this is what is left and we’ll start with a corner bet.
Manchester United v Chelsea (English Premiership: Sun 4pm Local Time)
It’s a Big 4 game and historically that means low corners. I use results going back 4 seasons (5 including this) and we have 54 matches and 40 have been 10 corners or less. That’s 74% and should be odds of 1.35. Looking at just Manchester United home games 8/12 were 10 or less (67%-1.5). For Chelsea away it’s 10/12 10 or less (83%-1.2). In the 4 times this fixture was played 2 were under 10, 1 was 11 and the other was 14. In StamfordBridge matches between the two 3 have been under 10 and 2 11. Sadly the bookmakers seem to have finally caught up with this but even so there does seem to be value as the lines are mainly set at 10. At a short price extrabet offer 1.54 on under 11.5 corners which is madness in my book. Most lines are set at 10 and on the Asian Total Bet365 offer evens on under 10 so money is returned if there are 10 corners. In all big 4 games that’s still a winner 60% of the time with money returned 15% of the time. For United homes it’s a winner 7/12 times with stake returned once and for Chelsea away a winner 6/12 with the stake returned 4 times. You can get 8.5 on it being 10 corners exactly if you want a tiny bet to make it under 12 instead. For example £9 at evens on under 10 and then £1 at 8.5 on 10 exactly returns £8 on anything under 10 and then £7.50 on 10 as you get your money back on the handicap bet.
++ Asian Total Corners – Under 10 @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt)
NottsCounty v Exeter City (English League One: Sat 3pm Local Time)
There’s 8 places and 12 points between these 2 clubs in the league but NottsCounty already look to be a team with nothing to play for. The points deductions handed out at the start of the season mean that rather than them being 5 points from the drop zone they are actually 17. If there had been no points deductionsCounty would find themselves in 20th place on goal difference. The top of the table is very tight and Exeter have a game in hand on most teams and a win of the game in hand would see them up to 4th. The home/away records also helped me here as NottsCounty have won just twice at home in 12 games. Again Exeter have played less away games than most teams but a win in their next two would give them the best away record in the division. NottsCounty have lost 5 of the last 6 at home and 8 of their last 11 games home and away. Exeter have not won either of their last 2 games but these were against the top 2 teams in the league and that included a draw away at runaway leaders Wycombe. They have lost away just twice all season and with the Asian Handicap I think we have a decent bet with a safety net.
++ Asian Handicap – Exeter @ 1.98 on VC Bet (1pt) – 1.95 Bet365
2 points staked on the weekend.
Good luck in whatever bets you do.
