Week 9 bets (22.12.07)

SSS Tips

Hope there's some Christmas cheer in this lot. Still liking the Asian handicaps and a few different bets this weekend too.

Liverpool v Portsmouth (eng prem sat 3pm)

Got two bets here. Portsmouth have won 6 in a row away and travel to Anfield where Liverpool have won only 3 of their 8 home games, although they have only lost 1. Even so I feel the odds on Pompey in the win market of 6/1 is big but taking the draw no bet option you can still get 9/2 and that looks the value. Additionally taking the Asian Handicap market you can get Portsmouth at +1. Away they would have lost this bet only 1/9 (1 void) and Liverpool at home would have won this bet just 3/8.
++ Asian Handicap – Portsmouth +1 @ 1.98 on Betfred/VCBet (1pt)
++ Portsmouth (Draw no bet) @ 5.5 on Bet365/VCBet/Skybet (1/2pt)

Blackburn v Chelsea (eng prem sun 4pm)

Blackburn have 4 of their last 6 games and Chelsea have won 4 of their last 6 with defeats away at Arsenal and Man Utd. In their 4 wins they have not conceeded goal and Blackburn have not managed to score in 3 of the last 4. On the correct score chart 0-2 has the highest peak and I think it's worth a small bet here
++ Correct Score – 0-2 @ 8/1 on Betfred (1/2pt)

Southampton v Preston (eng champ sat 3pm)

Got this bet from the AH console but not an AH bet. When I saw this game both the bars matched at the home +1 marker and it seems 4 of 5 Southampton home wins have come by the odd goal.They are favourites to win this weekend and preston have lost 8/11 away this season and 6 of these were by the odd goal.
++ Southampton to win by 1 goal @ 3.75 on Bet365 (1/2pt)

Dundee United v Gretna (scots prem sat 3pm)

Dundee United are a big favourite for this game bit I noticed that at home they have kept a clean sheet in 6/8 games. Looking at Gretna they have failed to score in 5/8 games. Sporting Bet (formerly Sporting Odds) offer 5/4 on Gretna not scoring and on those figures thats very good value.
++ Away team not to score @ 2.25 on Sporting Bet (1pt)

Aberdeen v Rangers (scots prem sun 3pm)

I kept coming back to this game as Aberdeen seem such good value. In the end I think I should take a half point risk on the HT/FT result. Looking at the pie charts Aberdeen have won at HT and FT 3/9 and Rangers have lost at HT and FT 2/6. Aberdeen have won 5/6 at home and face a Rangers side who have lost 2/4 away.
++ Aberdeen/Aberdeen HT/FT @ 11/1 on Skybet (1/2pt)

Alloa v Berwick (scots two sat 3pm)

Alloa began the season at home with a loss, followed by a draw and since then have won 6 straight. They host Berwick who have lost 7 of the 8 away games. Alloa quite rightly are a short odds favourite. If you look in the Asian handicap Market they can be backed at -1. The odds on the straight win are 1/2 so as long as they win this bet can't lose. Looking at the AH chart and ignoring the Home +1 bar as that's the handicap you have Alloa winning this 3/5 (and remember the 2 that lost were the first 2 games of the season) and Berwick would have lost this 4/5. I really like the look of this and will go 2 points
++ Asian Handicap – Alloa -1 @ 1.93 on Bet365 (2pts)