The bets have been few and far between which is mainly because I have a newborn in the house, lots of visitors and not getting to watch as much football as I would need to make better judgements. We did have another winner, with Italy, although the top goalscorer bets look to be dead in the water.
3 win / 5 bets / 4.5 points staked :: +2.1
As we hit this knockout stage I think we should find some decent prices as some teams have been overated and others under.
Portugal v Germany I cannot make any judgement on as I haven’t see Portugal enough. I didn’t think Germany justified being tournament favourites by a long way but this game could be a stale affair.
In Croatia v Turkey I think the Turks could cause an upset but I could be way off the mark and Croatia could dominate. One to steer clear of.
Personally, I think Holland have peaked too soon and may be like Argentina in the World Cup. They are attacking but may have played their best matches in the first two games. I think Russia are improving, the players are fresh, and Arshavin looked sharp and will be a big plus for them. So it was only Sweden they beat but Spain laboured to beat the Swedes. I like Hiddink, who is up against his home nation in the semi’s. He’s a manager prepared to risk all if a game needs it. Pre-tournament the Dutch were not fancied and they have come through the group of death with full points but was the group of death really that tough, as France were poor and Romania very negative.
In the final game on Sunday I think Spain can do Italy. No Pirlo and no Gattuso is a huge blow for Italy as they are both big game players. Luca Toni could not hit a cows arse with a banjo but you think at some stage one of his multitude of chances has to drop. I don’t think the Italian defence is all that and although they have Buffon the fact that Spain have Casillas means they are on an equal footing there. I think, along with Cech, they are the best keepers in the world. Torres had a fenomenal season and Villa seems to have rediscovered his scoring touch, which seemed to coincide with Koeman leaving Valencia. I can’t see the Italian defence dealing with them without Gattuso in front of them particularly with Pannucci at centre back.
I am away for a few days now so am doing all these bets now. I will be back on Sunday and so will summarise and look for more bets before the semis.
++ Win Market – Spain @ 2.6 on Boyles (1pt) * i would not be surprised if this price drifts a bit.
++ Draw No Bet – Russia @ 3.5 on Boyles (1pt)
