With the FA Cup being played there are less betting opportunities as I leave that well alone. In the lower leagues there were a few games I really toyed with like Peterborough to get something at Leeds and Rotherham to beat Grimsby. Rotherham would be in the playoff positions if they hadn’t points deducted but Newell has made some signings and loans. For some reason I also expect Luton to start getting some points.
Spain has reached the half way point in the season and Barcelona are still smashing it and need just 6 goals to reach 5000, more of that further down. The battle behind them is getting interesting and a few teams have started to hit form. Athletic Bilbao seem to be on a decent run and look good at Almeria and Malaga host Atletico who still aren’t convincing.
BristolCity v Colchester (English League One: Sat 3pm Local Time)
The change at Colchester since Paul Lambert came in has been immense. In their first 15 games they took just 15 points but in the 10 since have accumulated 20 of a possible 30 with just 1 defeat in the last 9 games. They have the 4th or 5th best away record in the division and have won half their away games. Bristol Rovers have a nice cushion between themselves and the relegation zone but still need to be careful. They have lost 4/11 matches at home this season and only won twice in the last 10 games and once in the last 4 at home. It looks like there will be goals as 10/12 Colchester away games have been over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in all but one of their away matches. I really like the look of 2-1 to Colchester as 4/12 Colchester away matches and 2/11 Rovers matches at home have ended like that. 6/23 is over a quarter and should be odds of less than 4. No bookie could price it up like that and 12 looks very tempting.
++ Win Market – Colchester @ 2.8 on Paddy Power (1pt) – 2.75 at 5 firms
++ Correct Score – 1-2 @ 12 on Betfred/William Hill (½pt)
Barcelona v Numancia (Spain Primera: Sat 10pm Local Time)
The live game in Spain this weekend features the blaugrana continuing their unstoppable march to the title. There’s been lots of talk about them this week reaching an amazing 50 points at the halfway point in the season and they play the only team to have beaten them. Somehow Numancia won on the opening day but used up all their luck then. Xavi talked about revenge and I think Barcelona could put on another show. They rested most of the team for the Copa del Rey in midweek when they drew 0-0 and Henry looking back to his old Arsenal best for the first time has helped considerably. Another factor is that if they have scored 4,994 goals so if they get 6 they reach 5,000. In some other games they have eased up at 5 but who would not want to be put down as the player who scored the 5,000th goal. If they get to 4 then it must be a real possibility. Numancia have scored 9 goals away from home but 7 of those came in 2 games and I can’t see them scoring against the tightest defence in the league who have let in just 2 goals in the last 7 home games. So what to bet? Well I have to say I think 6-0 is worth a small interest and then it’s all about the handicap. I’m going to play safe and go for Barcelona (-2, -2.5).
++ Asian Handicap – Barcelona (-2, -2.5) @ 1.98 on Bet365 (1pt)
++ Correct Score – 6-0 @ 34 on Boyles/Coral/William Hill (½pt)
Real Mallorca v Valencia (Spain: Sun 5pm Local Time)
I think Real Mallorca are rubbish I really do. They lost Guiza, Jonas and Ibagaza and never they were all vital components last season. They have lost 11 of 19 matches this season and haven’t won since 26th October. That’s 11 league games without a win and 8 of those have been losses. Valencia have really impressed me lately, especially since Silva is back from injury. They have had a really hard run of games lately which makes their form look worse than it is. Away from home in their last 4 games they have visited the 3 teams with the best home record, aside from themselves, and the cathedral of football at Bilbao, who are second only to Barcelona in form over the last 10 matches. I think Valencia and Sevilla have emerged as the best of the chasing pack and both were full strength in the Copa del Rey in midweek, when they had a right ding-dong winning 3-2. Signing Cesar as goalkeeping cover for the injured Renan is a big move. I really like this and want to go 2 points on this.
++ Win Market – Valencia @ 2.25 on Bet365/Paddy/Stan James/Coral (2pts) – 2.34 on Pinnacle
5 points staked on the weekend.
Good luck in whatever bets you do.
