I haven’t updated the midweek games as it has been a very hectic week. I’ll update everything on Sunday but it was nice to get the HT/FT winner. It prompted me to look at that kind of bet again and I found 8 bets this weekend where the HT/FT price seemed to be twice as big as the actual odds. I need to do some more analysis on the Spanish historical results to see how this fared.
Big game on Sunday as Liverpool host Chelsea and incredibly important for both sides with the loser really taking a psychological blow. I think Man United are much too short for the title as they have to wobble at some stage and also have been poor against the big 4 this season. In Spain we now have weeks of none of the big teams playing each other as all the big games are stacked near the season end.
A corner bet to kick off
Bolton v Tottenham (English Premier League: Sat 3pm Local Time)
Bolton have played all the big 4 at home so I removed all those games and was left with 7 matches and 4 Spurs it was 9. In those matches Bolton average 6.7 to their opponents 4.3 and Spurs average 4.8 to their opponents 6.3. These averages make the line of Bolton -1 look decent especially when the price being offered is evens. Bolton have won the corner count in all those 7 remaining games, although 2 of those games were by 1 corner so would have been void. For Spurs away in the 9 games they lost the corner count 5 times and by more than 4 on 4 of these occasions. They won the corner count in 3 of their first 4 away games and are a very different team now and I think this looks a god bet.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – Bolton (-1) @ 2 on Bet365 (1pt)
Fulham v Portsmouth (English Premier League: Sat 3pm Local Time)
Fulham have been solid at home this and only the big 4 have amassed more points than them on their own turf. Portsmouth with just 2 wins in their last 15 matches and already the pressure seems to be mounting on the unproven Adams. They have sold a few players and will have to see how the replacements manage. Away from home they have won just 2 gams all season and if we take Fulhams 6/11 home wins and add it to Pompeys 5/11 away defeats we get an evens chance with is exactly the bookies price. However, I think Pompey are a worse side now than earlier in the season and taking 7 points from their last 10 games must have damaged confidence. I want to split the stake though here on HT/FT bets as in each of Fulham’s 6 home wins they have been ahead at HT and in 3 of Fulhams 4 away losses they have been been behind at HT and odds of 3.4 on Coral seem generous when the stats say it is a 2.33 chance. Rather than bet 3.4 on Coral and 5 elsewhere I have chosen a lower price but bookmakers offering both
++ HT/FT – Fulham/Fulham @ 3.25 on Bet365/VC/Blue Sq on Bet365 (1pt)
++ HT/FT – Draw/Fulham @ 5 on Bet365/VC/Blue Sq on Bet365Hill (½pt)
Sporting Gijon v Sevilla (Spain: Sun 9pm Local Time – 8pmUK)
My local team hit their bunch of 4 super tough games at a bad time. They went out of the Copa del Rey to Bilbao in midweek and lost 5-1 to Getafe last weekend. They have lost 5 of the last 7 games and one of those wins came against Valladolid when they played 10 men for a lot of the game. Losing the goalie Cuellar to injury a while back was a huge blow as he made a big difference earlier in the season. They have only scored 4 goals in the last 6 games and need to outscore opponents with a poor defence. I have just seen Luis Fabiano is out for Sevilla but I don’t think that will make too much difference as Chevanton always seems eager and Maresca can play as second striker. Sevilla have won 5 of their last 7 away games including a very impressive win at La Coruna last time round. I’ve seen Sporting a few times this year and they have done exceptionally well against the teams around them but been found out against class and I think this will happen again tomorrow.
++ Win Market – Sevilla @ 2.2 on VCBet/Paddy (1pt)
3.5 points staked on the weekend.
Good luck in whatever bets you do.
