SSS Tips

None of the games in England really stood out but there are a few in France which I like and a similar bet to before and hoping for a similar story.

Valenciennes v Lens (france – weds 6:30pm local time)

This is the early game in France this midweek. Again it's the home form of Valenciennes we are basing this on as they have kept the run going and now have W8 D2 L0 at home. This time Lens are the visitors and away from home they've W2 D1 L7. If you delve a little deeper you can see Lens are third from bottom of the league and the 2 wins came against the only 2 teams below them who have the worst home records in the league. Lens have only scored 6 goals in the 10 away league games and Valenciennes have the tightest home defense shipping only 3 goals so far this season. Valenciennes would have won this bet 8/10 at home and Lens would have lost it 7/10 away. Getting a price of evens seems exceptional value and you get the better price on the AH rather than the straight win.
++ Asian Handicap – Valenciennes -0.5 @ 2.075 on Bet365/VC Bet (1pt)

Caen v Auxerre (france – weds 8:30pm local time)

It's a smilar story with Caen and Auxerre. Caen are the form team in France with just one loss in the last 14 games and 6 of the last 7 home games have ended in a win. Auxerre come to town and they managed W1 D2 L8 away from home scoring less (4) and conceeding more (21) than any other team. The 1 win game against rock bottom Metz and second from bottom Socheaux provided one of the draws. They are weak away and the on form Caen side should be too good for them. Caen have only lost one player to the African Nations Cup and although they have a small squad should have enough to cope. Again taking the AH handicap gets a much better price and am prepared to risk 1 1/2 points on this game.
++ Asian Handicap – Caen -0.5 @ 2.075 on Bet365/VC Bet/Ladbrokes (1 1/2pts)

++Double – The above bets @ 4.3 on Bet365 (1/2 pt)

SSS Tips Round Up
Happily we can add Aston Villa as a winning bet too as they drew 2-2 at Anfield and were very unlucky not to win. A very healthy weekend all in all.

Bets 66, Wins 29 (plus 5 void and 1 void/loss), Points staked 65, Profit +9.07

Spinner Rinse

The rinse is back and has squeezed in his selections between tournaments. Auxerre were in but then they weren't and now the final lot are all close to home. We have QPR to beat Barnsley at home in the championship and then he seems to have gone away day mental in league 2 with Brentford at Accrington, Stockport at Bury, Grimsby at Dagenham & R and MK Dons at Wrexham.

Can be backed at 48.85 on Stan James and Bet Direct

SSS Tips

I might start putting the majority of these bets out on a Friday morning. Brentford was available at 1.91 earlier at two bookies who have now cut them to 1.83. Bet365 have cut Getafe from 1.98 to 1.95 and Ladbrokes took them to 1.86. Villa also have been cut from 1.9 to 1.88. These are small amounts but they all add up.

Some interesting games around this weekend. The Madrid derby being one of them and if only Atletico didn’t have Abbiati in goal then they’d be a good bet. Still found some nice games and a mix of bets.

Start with a pair of doubles

Inter Milan v Parma (serie A – sun 8:30pm local time) / Inverness CT v Rangers (scots prem – sun 2pm local time)

Inter Milan have been mighty impressive in Italy this season and won 8 out of 9 at home and host Parma who have no away wins and drawn 2 and lost 6. Inter look a good thing but it’s the half time pie that strikes me. In the 9 home games they have led at half time 8 times. Add the fact that Parma have been losing in 5 of 8 and you have a decent bet, especially with Paddy Power offering 1.62. Combining the above records the chance is actually 13/17 which would be a price of 1.31.
It’s the over 2.5 market here worth looking at. Sometimes it can be deceiving when you get two teams with lots of games over 2.5 if they are both at the top or both at the bottom, but here we have a big difference between the teams. At home for Inverness 9/11 games have been over 2.5 and for Rangers away it’s 7/9. If we combine these records we get 16/20 which is odds of 1.2 but 1.67 is widely available. The odds are both short but combining these in a double makes sense.
++ Double – @ 2.71 on Paddy Power (1pt)

Mansfield v Darlington (eng div2 – sat 3pm local time) / QueensPark v Raith (scots 2 – sat 3pm local time)

This is a risky double but both these games stood out on the console for the teams leading at half time. Looking at Darlington they have won 7/10 away and each time have led at halftime. 3.8 is available on Darlington HT/FT at a number of bookmakers and it looks good value.
A similar story with Raith who have won 7/10 away this season but of these, 6 were won when leading at halftime as well. Ladbrokes offer a whopping 3.75 on this and 3.5 is available. I considered making them both singles as just one coming in returns a profit but thought a small double made more sense.
++ Double – @ 13.5 on Ladbrokes  (1/2pt) – also 13.3 on Stan James

A corner Bet

Newcastle v Bolton (eng prem – sat 5:15pm local time)

KK is back in charge and not sure it will be instant attack. The average supremacy for Newcastle at home is 1.2 and it's a very similar figure for Bolton away (to the home side that is). The handicap is Bolton +2 and I can't help but think there's a little knee-jerk in that. Looking at Newcastle they would have beaten that handicap 11/30 times last season and this and taking this season just 3/11, with one draw. in the 11. These 3 wins have come against Wigan, Everton and Derby who are all in the bottom seven in terms of corner supremacy away. Bolton are a different kettle of fish and would have lost the +2 handicap just 3 times, drawn twice and won 5 times. In terms of averages Newcastle average 5.8 at home and Bolton 5.2 away. I checked the midweek cup game against Stoke at St James Park and Newcastle only managed 5 corners. The fact that we get the higher 1.95 price adds to the value.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – Bolton +2 @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)

Now some Asian handicaps

Accrington v Brentford (eng div 2 – sat 3pm local time)

I was wrong to oppose Brentford last weekend with Chesterfield. Went against Chesterfield with success in midweek and now will back Brentford. They have won 4 on the bounce now and have just 1 loss in 7. They travel to Accrington who have not won in 4 (losing 8-2 last weekend), only won once at home in the last 7 and only won 4/13 at home all season. The mark is even here and it turns out draw no bet gives better odds despite being the same bet. The Bees would have won this 6/10 away (3 draws) and Accrington lost 8/12 (1 draw).
++ Draw No Bet – Brentford @ 1.9 on Sporting Odds (1pt)

Wrexham v MK Dons (eng div 2 – sat 3pm local time)

MK Dons are flying high and are very short odds to win away. However, this is top plays bottom and MK have won 6 in a row away and 10 of the last 11 with away form better than home. Wrexham are struggling and have lost their last 6 games, and at home lost 6 and drawn 2 of the last 8. The handicap is -0.5, -1 for MK but if they win then this bet wins. That’s the bottom line and that looks great value for me. If they win by 1 then the -1 is void and -0.5 wins which has happened 10/13 times for them away this season and Wrexham would have lost that 8/12. If MK win by more than 1 then it’s a bonanza but as long as they win this bets a winner and that looks value.
++ MK Dons -0.5, -1 @ 2.04 on Ladbrokes (2pts)

Getafe v Sevilla (la liga – sat 8pm local time)

Getafe have only won once in the past 5 games but prior to that they won 4/5 and 2 of the recent losses have been against Villareal and Atletico Madrid which is no disgrace and last week somehow managed to lose against Betis despite dominating the game. Pato, their goalie which also means Duck in Spanish, is a liability and makes all their games interesting. They are in the zero handicap v Sevilla and I think it’s good value despite him as they would have won that 4/7 at home (2 draws). Sevilla are a good side but really have struggled away from home this season with the only win coming at hopeless bottom of the table Levante. With Kanoute and Keita in Africa with Mali this makes it an even better time to play them.  They would have lost the 0 handicap 6/7 away (2 draws).
++ Getafe 0 @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)

Liverpool v Aston Villa (mon 8pm local time)

This game isn’t until Monday but will easier to include in the weekends bets than a midweek selection. At Anfield Liverpool have only managed to beat Portsmouth, Fulham, Derby and Bolton in their 10 home games. Villa arrive keen to avenge the last minute loss on the opening day and they arrive with only 2 losses in their last 13 games and only 1 loss in 10 away games this season. The odds on Liverpool are very short and they seem to be making headlines for the wrong reasons this season. The handicap is available are Villa +0.5, +1 but also at +1 which is the one I want. Villa have not lost that all season and won it 9 times with 1 void. For Liverpool it’s 4 wins and 6 losses on that line.
++ Asian Handicap – Aston Villa +1 @ 1.88 on Bet365 (1pt)

7.5 points bet in total

Spinner Rinse

Waiting on the Spinner Rinse as once again he’s buried in the Brazilian poker tournament on Pokerroom.