SSS Tips
We’ve done well lately and hope it continues. Possibly not as many bets as normal but with the FA Cup on it means the whole premiership is off. I’m till wary of looking at Germany as they have only had two games since the winter break and also with the Champions League back this week it might be worth treading carefully in the top division in each country.
There have been a couple of winners on over 2.5 recently and as we have been backing what looked like 60-70% chances we are probably due a loser. There’s another one further down but I’ll start with a short odds double as I think we are due one of these.
Falkirk v St Mirren (scots prem – sat 3pm local time) / St Etienne v Nancy (france – 8pm local time)
Simple stats on these two. 8/12 Falkirk home games and 9/11 St Mirren away games have been under 2.5 goals. That makes 17/23 (74%) which should be 1.35 but can be backed at 1.67. St Etienne have had 9/11 home games under 2.5 and Nancy 9/12 away games. Looks to me like 18/23 (78%), which is 1.28 but can be backed at 1.55. Take the two together and I make it roughly a 1.73 chance so the bet365 odds of 2.59 look good value.
++ Under 2.5 goals Double @ 2.59 on Bet365 (1pt)
The next 4 are all single bets that statistically look good and caught my eye as I went through the console.
Inverness CT v Dundee United (scots prem – sat 3pm local time)
Maybe this is the over 2.5 bet we are due to lose on but it has to be a bet. 9/12 Inverness home games have been over 2.5 and for Dundee Utd away it’s a big 10/12. The two together is 19/24 (79) and should be odds of 1.26, so being able to get a price of 1.95 is too hard to turn down.
++ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)
Lens v Nice (france – sat 8pm local time)
These two teams produce big grey HT pie charts as 9/11 Lens home games have been drawn at HT and 9/12 games Nice have played on the road. Add them together and it’s 18/23 (78%) and so should be odds of 1.28. Betfred offer evens but Corals give 2.1 and that’s worth a bet.
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.1 on Coral (1 pt)
Northampton v Gillingham (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)
This is based on the fact that Gillingham lost away in 11 of their 15 games and have been down at HT in 9 of these (9/15). The Gills have lost their last 3 away games and head to Northampton who are unbeaten in 7 at home and have won 3 of the last 6. They have led at HT in each of these games as well as one of the draws. So, they have led at HT in 4 of the last 6 games and 7/16 home games. Of the 7 times they led at HT they went on to win 6 (6/16). Taking the two teams it looks like a 15/31 chance that Northampton will lead at HT and FT which is 48% so should be odds of around 2.05. You can get 3.2 at several firms but the 3.4 at Skybet really does look good value.
++ HT/FT – Northampton/Northampton @ 3.4 on Skybet (½pt)
Just one of the more traditional bets this week
Cheltenham v Hartlepool (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)
These two teams are 18th and 17th respectively in the division so this is a 6 pointer. The prices are quite similar but for me the big difference is in the home and away form. Cheltenham have won 7 of their 16 home games this season but lately their form has improved and 6 of those wins have come in the last 8 games. Hartlepool have won just 3 times away this season but have lost 8 of the last 9 on the road. If this game goes to form then the Cheltenham price looks good value, but I will play a little safer and take the 0, -0.5 AH as it’s still above evens and returns half the stake if it’s a draw.
++ Cheltenham @ 0, -0.5 @ 2.1 on VC Bet/Bet365 (1pt)
4½ points bet in total
NOTES
I’ll add the Spinner Rinse later.
Spinner Rinse
Had time to add a rinse. As it's me doing this it mainly relies on the above tips so we have Norwich to win at Leicester in the Championship, In League 1 we have Doncaster to beat Leeds, Cheltenham to beat Hartlepool and Nortampton to beat Gillingham and the fifth leg is Inverness to beat Dundee Utd in the Scots prem..
++ 5-fold accumulator @ 57.75 on Stan James/Bet Direct
