SSS Tips

We’ve done well lately and hope it continues.  Possibly not as many bets as normal but with the FA Cup on it means the whole premiership is off. I’m till wary of looking at Germany as they have only had two games since the winter break and also with the Champions League back this week it might be worth treading carefully in the top division in each country.

There have been a couple of winners on over 2.5 recently and as we have been backing what looked like 60-70% chances we are probably due a loser. There’s another one further down but I’ll start with a short odds double as I think we are due one of these.

Falkirk v St Mirren (scots prem – sat 3pm local time) / St Etienne v Nancy (france – 8pm local time)

Simple stats on these two. 8/12 Falkirk home games and 9/11 St Mirren away games have been under 2.5 goals. That makes 17/23 (74%) which should be 1.35 but can be backed at 1.67. St Etienne have had 9/11 home games under 2.5 and Nancy 9/12 away games. Looks to me like 18/23 (78%), which is 1.28 but can be backed at 1.55. Take the two together and I make it roughly a 1.73 chance so the bet365 odds of 2.59 look good value.
++ Under 2.5 goals Double @ 2.59 on Bet365 (1pt)

The next 4 are all single bets that statistically look good and caught my eye as I went through the console.

Inverness CT v Dundee United (scots prem – sat 3pm local time)

Maybe this is the over 2.5 bet we are due to lose on but it has to be a bet. 9/12 Inverness home games have been over 2.5 and for Dundee Utd away it’s a big 10/12. The two together is 19/24 (79) and should be odds of 1.26, so being able to get a price of 1.95 is too hard to turn down.
++ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)

Lens v Nice (france – sat 8pm local time)

These two teams produce big grey HT pie charts as 9/11 Lens home games have been drawn at HT and 9/12 games Nice have played on the road. Add them together and it’s 18/23 (78%) and so should be odds of 1.28. Betfred offer evens but Corals give 2.1 and that’s worth a bet.
++ Half Time – Draw @ 2.1 on Coral (1 pt)

Northampton v Gillingham (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)

This is based on the fact that Gillingham lost away in 11 of their 15 games and have been down at HT in 9 of these (9/15). The Gills have lost their last 3 away games and head to Northampton who are unbeaten in 7 at home and have won 3 of the last 6. They have led at HT in each of these games as well as one of the draws. So, they have led at HT in 4 of the last 6 games and 7/16 home games. Of the 7 times they led at HT they went on to win 6 (6/16). Taking the two teams it looks like a 15/31 chance that Northampton will lead at HT and FT which is 48% so should be odds of around 2.05. You can get 3.2 at several firms but the 3.4 at Skybet really does look good value.
++ HT/FT – Northampton/Northampton @ 3.4 on Skybet (½pt)

Just one of the more traditional bets this week

Cheltenham v Hartlepool (eng lge 1 – sat 3pm local time)

These two teams are 18^th and 17^th respectively in the division so this is a 6 pointer. The prices are quite similar but for me the big difference is in the home and away form. Cheltenham have won 7 of their 16 home games this season but lately their form has improved and 6 of those wins have come in the last 8 games. Hartlepool have won just 3 times away this season but have lost 8 of the last 9 on the road. If this game goes to form then the Cheltenham price looks good value, but I will play a little safer and take the 0, -0.5 AH as it’s still above evens and returns half the stake if it’s a draw.
++ Cheltenham @ 0, -0.5 @ 2.1 on VC Bet/Bet365 (1pt)

4½ points bet in total

NOTES

I’ll add the Spinner Rinse later.

Spinner Rinse

Had time to add a rinse. As it's me doing this it mainly relies on the above tips so we have Norwich to win at Leicester in the Championship, In League 1 we have Doncaster to beat Leeds, Cheltenham to beat Hartlepool and Nortampton to beat Gillingham and the fifth leg is Inverness to beat Dundee Utd in the Scots prem..

++ 5-fold accumulator @ 57.75 on Stan James/Bet Direct

SSS Tips

We had a nice weekend so hopefully can build on that and find a small profit somewhere this week. It’s just games in England bar the Premiership but I will stick to the bear’s advice and avoid the championship again as it really is hard to call.

The first two games caught my eye statswise when using the console.

Millwall v Southend (eng lge 1 – tue 7:45pm local time)

This is an over 2.5 bet as the stats look decent compared to the odds. Ten of Millwall’s 15 home games have featured over 2.5 goals and 6 of the last 8. For Southend you have 9 of 15 away games and 5 of the last 6. Taking all these games it should have a 19/30 chance (63%) which would be odds of 1.58. As it can be backed at 2.05 on Pinnacle, evens on VC bet  and 2.025 on Bet365 it looks worth a punt.
++ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.025 on Bet365 (1pt)

Notts County v Darlington (eng lge 2 – tue 7:45pm local time)

Darlington are around the 2.2 mark to win this and I can’t see any real value in that. However, they have been leading at HT in 8/14 games away and 5 of the last 7. NottsCounty have been behind at HT 6/15 times and 3 of the last 6. Again, taking the stats Darlington to be leading at HT looks to be 14/29 (48%) which is odds of 2.07. The odds of 2.9 being offered by Bet365 swung me towards this and make it good value, but just the half point.
++ Darlington to lead at HT @ 2.9 on Bet365 (1/2 pt)

Now the more traditional bets

Rotherham v Stockport (eng lge 2 – tue 7:45pm local time)

Backed Stockport last week at Bury and they obliged but it’s a much harder task going to Rotherham. Stockport are in a good run of form and after picking up 26 points from their first 20 games have picked up 21 off a possible 30 in the last 10. They have not lost in 8 games, winning 6 of them and starting with the win away at MK Dons on 27^th October they have won 7 of the 9 away and only drawn once. Rotherham recently had a fantastic run of form but have hit a bit of a slump winning only 2 of the last 7 and the last three home games reads LDL. Maybe Stockport are about to enter the slump the Rotherham have found but the prices look too good here. Stockport are a massive 3.75 to win here but I think the safety net of draw no bet looks better. The Rotherham home and Stockport away records are identical as W8 D3 L4 so something closer to evens would be a better call. My only worry is that Stockport sold their top scorer during the transfer window so will go half a point.
++ Draw No Bet – Stockport @ 2.75 on VC Bet (1/2pt)

Macclesfield v Grimsby (eng lge 2 – tue 7:45pm local time)

Like Stockport (and Brentford) Grimsby have taken 21 points from a possible 30 in the last 10 games. They are unbeaten in the last 7 away and visit Macclesfield who have lost 5 of the last 6 at home. Wasn’t sure what to bet but the scratch AH gives Grimsby at 1.95 and looks best value (better than the odds on fraw no bet even though it's the same). Although they would have won this only 5 /11 times (4 draws) their recent form swings it along with the fact Macclesfield would have lost this 7/9 times (6 draws).
++ Grimsby (0) @ 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt)

3 points bet in total

SSS Tips

The big news is that the rinse has packed it in. He’s hung his hat up and will no longer be taking part. I’ll cover this week and maybe someone else will step in to fill his trousers. The profit has been hovering around the same mark for a while so maybe this might be the weekend we break the 10 point barrier.

I’ll begin with a corner bet

Derby v Spurs (eng prem – sat 3pm local time)

Looking at the handicap again here. It's not that often that the home team is the receiver of handicap but Derby get a nice +1.5, 2 here. Derby have played at home 12 times this season and Liverpool and Wigan beat them by 5 corners but no-one else has beaten them by more than 2. Once they were beaten by 2 but the other 9 occasions would have won this bet. In consecutive away games in September Spurs won by 7 and 8 corners, but the only other game when they would have beaten this handicap was away at Chelsea meaning they would have lost it 10/13 times. From these stats this just has to be a bet.
++ Asian Handicap Corners – Derby +1.5, 2 @ 1.9 on Bet365 (1pt)

I have plumped for some different style bets as well this week as they sprang up when using the consoles. Will see how they do.

Bradford v Bury (eng lge 2 – sat 3pm local time)

This is a simple stats bet and the price on offer seems very generous. 8/13 Bradford home games have been over 2.5 goals and 9/13 Bury away games. Add them together and you get 17/26 which is a 65% chance so that’s odds of 1.53, but this is widely available at 1.91 and Pinnacle and Bet365vgo above evens.
++ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)

BristolCity v Sheffield Wednesday (eng championship – sat 3pm local time)

Going through the AH console I saw the large bars on Home +1 (the home team winning by one goal) and it turns out in 7/15 Bristol City games at home they have won by 1 goal and looking at Wednesday it’s the same in that 7/15 have been lost by 1 goal. After seeing this it was just a case of finding a bet.
++ Winning Margin – BristolCity to win by 1 goal @ 3.6 on Bet365 (1/2pt)

Real Madrid v Valladolid (la liga – sun 7pm local time)

Madrid crashed last week but they should get back to winning ways at home. They have won all 10 home games this season but surprisingly have been drawing at HT in 7 of these. I noticed this on the pie charts on the main console and for Valladolid it’s 6/10 games have been drawn at HT. My initial plan here was to just back the HT draw at 3 but as Madrid have won all 10 at home you’d expect them to win this so may as well take the draw-madrid option as the price is much better.
++ HT/FT – Draw/Real Madrid @ 4.75 on Blue Sq (1/2pt)

Now the standard AH and win bets.

Sampdoria v Napoli (serie A – sun 3pm local time)

Sampdoria have been strong at home this season with a record of W6 D3 L1 and 4 wins in the last 5 with a draw against Fiorentina as the other. Napoli away have been as bad as Sampdoria are good at home with 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses and 5 losses in the last 6 games. The price of 1.91 looked decent but then I noticed that on the AH you can get Sampdoria -0.5 at above evens.
++ Sampdoria -0.5 @ 2.05 on Bet365 (1pt)

Sevilla v Barcelona (la liga – sat 10pm local time)

What a game this could be! Sevilla have struggled this season but manage to raise their game when one of the big two are in town. They drew this fixture last season but Sevilla won it the 2 previous seasons. There could be goals and cards in this game. Sevilla seem to be back to full strength with Keita and Kanoute back, but Barcelona look to be without Bojan, Deco and Zambrotta and maybe more. Puyol may miss the game and that would mean a back 4 containing Thuram and Oleguer. Thuram was a great player but is a liability whenever he plays and if he’s on the pitch will make some sort of howler. He really should retire and I also have no idea why Barcelona spend so much on players yet settle for a goalkeeper who is never deemed good enough to make the Spain squad. That’s enough of a barca rant so now the stats. Sevilla have won 8 and drawn 3 at home this season, winning 6 of the last 7, but Barcelona have been shaky away with only 3 wins in the 10 away games an scoring just 13 goals. The AH of Sevilla 0, the same as draw no bet appeals, although I imagine I’ll end up backing the sevilla win as well come Saturday night. Sevilla were available at evens earlier today and have been cut to 1.95 and I’m happy to go 2 points on this one.
++ Sevilla (0) @ 1.95 on (2pts)

6 points bet in total

Spinner Rinse

As I said the rinse is gone so my selections would be Swansea to win at Crewe (eng lge 1), Leicester to beat Plymouth (championship), Sunderland to win at home to Wigan (prem), Inter Milan to win at Catania and Sampdoria to beat Napoli (both serie A).

++ 5-fold accumulator @ 23.49 on Bet365